Growth estimates may push MPC into action

Third estimates of quarterly GDP growth are normally a bit of a formality but will take on extra significance this week as they will include widescale revisions for the last two years.

International expansion and a successful spring and summer are expected to turn in to strong halfyear growth at Ted Baker

Recent previous revisions to the national accounts showed that economic growth had been 0.5 per cent stronger than thought for every year between 2009 and 2012.

Philip Shaw, an economist with Investec, said: “A similar pattern since 2013 might well change the dynamics on the MPC and encourage a more serious discussion of a rate increase before the end of the year.”

Meanwhile, business organisations will be busy lobbying at the Conservative Party conference, while the latest PMI surveys from Markit will guide expectations for the economy in the coming months.

WEEK AHEAD

Today

• Mortgage lending – Figures from the BBA are expected to confirm that net lending has stalled again.

Tomorrow

• Converge Challenge – The entrepreneurial contest for Scottish university spin-outs comes to a head with the final at Heriot-Watt’s conference centre in Edinburgh. Some £60,000 in a cash and support package is up for grabs.

• Saga – The over-50s insurance group will post its first set of results since its £2.1 billion stock market flotation in the spring.

Wednesday

• Sainsbury’s – The update is the first major test for new chief executive Mike Coupe and comes at a difficult time for the supermarket sector.

Thursday

• Ted Baker – Strong half-year growth is expected on the back of the retailer’s spring and summer collections and its international expansion.

• GDP – Economists are still hoping that second-quarter growth will be nudged up a fraction, from 0.8 per cent to 0.9 per cent.

Friday

• Service sector – Markit’s purchasing managers’ survey is expected to be positive.