April surge in retail figures 'just a one-off seasonal rise' warn analysts

While the upturn, which marks the biggest rise for the month of April since 2002, will provide some relief to retailers who have been hard-hit by weak consumer morale, analysts stressed that underlying sales growth remained weak as Britons face squeezed household budgets.

Retail sales volumes rose 1.1 per cent month-on-month in April, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, as the extra bank holiday saw the biggest rise in food store sales in nearly three years.

The warmest April on record for many parts of the country also led to a 3.2 per cent hike in clothing and footwear sales, the sharpest rise since June 2009, while gardening and sports sales also benefited from the sunshine.

Economists were expecting an increase in overall retail sales of up to 1 per cent, but warned the spike is likely to be temporary as underlying problems remain on the high street.

Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, the forecasting group, said: "While welcome, we strongly doubt that the 1.1 per cent jump in retail sales volumes in April is a sign that the consumer is roaring back to life. Rather, what it suggests is that pressurised consumers need a particularly favourable set of circumstances to part with their cash.

"The underlying impression remains that consumers have become significantly less willing, and able, to spend in recent months in the face of serious headwinds - most notably the squeeze on their purchasing power."

UBS economist Amit Kara warned the monthly data tended to be "very volatile", adding: "The big picture is that UK households need to make a downward adjustment to their relative lifestyles. That's the medium-term outlook."

Earlier this week, Mothercare announced it would shut 110 stores after posting a slump in UK profits. Other big names struggling to grow sales include HMV, JJB Sports and the Kesa-owned Comet chain.

But the marriage of Prince William and Kate Middleton on 29 April, coupled with sunshine and warm temperatures throughout the month, offered the sector some respite.

Food store sales were 1.4 per cent higher than a year ago and 2.2 per cent higher than March, the highest rise since May 2008, according to the latest official data.

Other surveys for April, including a report from the British Retail Consortium (BRC), suggested barbecue food featured heavily on customer receipts, but the ONS could not offer a breakdown on popular items.

Responding to yesterday's numbers, BRC director general Stephen Robertson said: "Before rushing to celebrate, we need to recognise that much of April's strong headline figure is down to one-off seasonal factors. May's growth is likely to be lower and a more realistic indication of how customers, retailers and the wider economy are progressing."