Andrew Arbuckle: Subsidies in euros are welcome, but Europe's CAP moves may not be

Those that choose to take their payments in euros are benefiting from the state of the single European currency just as those who go on holiday across the Channel find their stash of euro cash melts very rapidly.

Ireland is already taking some unpalatable financial medicine and other EU member states, such as Portugal and Belgium, are showing financial wobbliness, so it looks as if it is a reasonable gamble for farmers to continue to tick the euros box.

Regardless, there will be a spring in the step of most Scottish farmers as their bank balances receive the subsidy injection this week - tinged with a little feeling of superiority that once again this is being received well ahead of subsidy payments in England.

I am delighted by this efficiency and congratulate all those turning the handle of the computer that is churning out the cheques. My only worry is that plans are being made to invest in a shiny new, "capable of much more" computer. Money has been put aside for this investment, but someone needs to remind those involved that big new computers so often bring big new problems.

The new machines will not be in place when the EU auditors announce their verdict on how much they will penalise Scottish agriculture for including bracken and gorse patches in their subsidy claims.

Individual farmers whom they judge to have "got it wrong" will see the rigid penalty formula applied to them, but the big fine to Scotland will be dealt with by "disallowance" - eurospeak for "we will take it out of your allowance before you get it".

There is no doubt that there will be a national penalty. That became clear last week in the testy exchange between the Cabinet Secretary, Richard Lochhead and George Lyon, MEP. The question is how much will be disallowed.

My own guess is that it will be more than €50m but less than €100m (42m-84m).

Back to the new computers, which are supposed to cope with the more complex but as yet undefined support scheme that will emerge as the reformed Common Agricultural Policy.

I had promised myself I would not comment on the CAP reform, as whichever way it is observed, there seems to be a million options and about the same number of opinions.

From a Scottish perspective, there is general - but not universal - agreement that Brian Pack has produced a formula that suits our circumstances while at the same time fits the thinking and regulations within Europe.

And NFU Scotland has targeted getting more member state discretion within the package so that Scotland's livestock industries in the hills and uplands can be protected.

That much we know. But we certainly do not know the attitude of the UK government, which will be sitting in the main seat during the all-important Council of Ministers' discussions.

The current UK government is seen as more farmer-friendly than the previous regime, but has not so far given away many clues as to its stance on CAP reform. These choices will be critical for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

And then there is the CAP budget, which this year will work out at €57 billion (about 48bn). Apart from those who ideologically would reduce this, there are now others who will want to use some of that cash to fill holes in their own budgets.

You see how easy it is to get sucked into a CAP reform discussion even when you try to avoid it? Did I say there are a million options and about the same number of opinions? I think was a very conservative estimate.

Someone remarked to me that he would be unable to pick up a paper in the next four months because it would be full of the impending royal wedding. The same will be true in the farming sections about CAP reform - except that the timescale will be longer and the subject much more complex.