Alistair Harkness on the Oscar nominations: Leave the statistics to the sport fans

HAVING once been the Oscars’ most overlooked film-maker, Martin Scorsese is in danger of becoming something of an Academy Awards institution this year, thanks to his latest film Hugo collecting the most nominations during yesterday’s announcements.

With 11 in total, it’s just ahead of previously predicted frontrunner The Artist, proving once again that as much as the other awards ceremonies like to position themselves as Oscar indicators, they’re really nothing of the sort. That won’t stop many continuing to view The Artist as the favourite, though, thanks largely to the fact that more of its ten nominations feature in the major categories.

Making predictions based on such specious arguments, however, has in recent years become a phenomenon worthy of the stat chat in the excellent Moneyball (which, incidentally, is this year’s third most-nominated feature with six nods): it’s a highly subjective, somewhat fanciful form of punditry, based largely on dubious arguments. Moneyball’s six nominations, for instance, which include best picture, best actor (Brad Pitt), best supporting actor (Jonah Hill) and adapted screenplay, puts it just ahead of the much fancied The Descendants, which only has five.

Yet The Descendants has also been nominated in the best director category, so does that make it a stronger contender than Moneyball or Hugo when it comes to challenging the perceived hegemony of the The Artist, which has been nominated in most of the main categories bar best actress?

The short answer is: no-one really knows, something typified by Démian Bichir’s surprise best actor nomination for the little seen A Better Life, and Nick Nolte’s supporting actor nod for the rambling mixed-martial-arts movie Warrior.

Nevertheless, over the next few weeks we’re sure to be bombarded by experts endlessly pontificating about whether Glenn Close’s behind-the-scenes efforts to get her gender-bending titular performance in Albert Nobbs on screen will give her the edge over perennial nominee Meryl Streep; or whether Christopher Plummer’s veteran status (as opposed to his lovely performance in Beginners) will make him a shoo-in for best supporting actor.

The truth is, if you’re trying to analyse what the list of nominees really means, you might as well look for significance in the fact that two of this year’s best supporting actress nominees – Bridesmaids’ Melissa McCarthy and The Help’s Octavia Spencer – play characters whose most memorable moments feature the prominent placement of their character’s own faecal matter. And what, pray tell, would that say about the Oscars?