Analysis: SNP figures are happy with one thing; Labour in chaos

How do you go from being the biggest party to a bit-part player that draws laughter and pity rather than fear?
Anas Sarwar and Monica Lennon are set to face off in the Scottish Labour leadership election.Anas Sarwar and Monica Lennon are set to face off in the Scottish Labour leadership election.
Anas Sarwar and Monica Lennon are set to face off in the Scottish Labour leadership election.

It’s a question the SNP should be careful not to take too much joy in answering – after all, for the party of devolution to become firmly the third choice of the Scottish people means it can happen to any party.

The choice now facing Scottish Labour – assuming Monica Lennon gains enough support to provide opposition to Anas Sarwar – should be viewed as a long-term choice rather than a short-term sticking plaster.

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In freefall over the past decade, any leader must grasp the party by the scruff of the neck and reinvigorate it any way they can.

Whoever wins the contest must – as a minimum – do two things.

The first; establish themselves with the Scottish public as a recognisable figure ahead of May’s elections, and secondly; provide Labour with a coherent vision for Scotland’s future not based solely on a Keir Starmer premiership.

In the longer term, the party must win back some of the voters that have abandoned them in droves and switched to the SNP.

Hard-line unionists will gravitate to the Conservatives, those wishing to protect or enhance devolution may well view the SNP as the best bet to protect Holyrood institutions or Scottish-only interests.

No longer can Labour rely on mobilising the ‘workers’ to vote them to power either.

Class-based political allegiances was the Achilles heel of Corbynism and has been rendered almost meaningless in modern day, constitution-obsessed British politics.

But a sign of a deeper malaise is that neither Lennon nor Sarwar are viewed as a potential threat.

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Broadly considered by opponents as lacking the intellect or personality to distract from Labour’s indecision and incoherency on policy, SNP figures simply do not fear either.

“If the answer is Anas Sarwar or Monica Lennon, then Labour is asking the wrong question,” said Alyn Smith, SNP MP for Stirling.

He added: “The people of Scotland are actively considering post-Covid and post-Brexit who makes decisions for us and how accountable they are to the people of Scotland and on the biggest issues of the day, Scottish Labour looks and sounds like a branch office of a party that has triangulated towards middle England.

“Until they take a distinctly Scottish line, they will continue to be on the fringes, whoever leads.”

One SNP source labelled the frontrunner Sarwar as “more of the same”, saying: “I can't see any clear water between what he'll do at the top of Scottish Labour and what Kezia Dugdale or Jim Murphy tried before him.

“The only threat to the SNP right now is the SNP.”

Michael Sturrock, head of the pro-independence ‘NoToYes’ campaign, said the next leader should adopt a “neutral position” on the constitution and drop opposition to a second referendum.

Highlighting the number of votes lost to the SNP and the Greens and broader support for independence in recent years, Mr Sturrock said: “Recognising this shift and adapting is the only means of survival for Labour.”

Privately, pro-independence figures are even more damning of the prospects of either candidate to dent SNP support.

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Such apathy towards the two candidates ultimately shows that without a major inquest into why Labour has failed, the party is likely doomed to repeat past mistakes.

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