Why John Swinney is not going to deliver what he’s promised – John McLaren

As Rishi Sunak is demonstrating, a tired government will not be revived by a well-organised but uninspiring leader who has little new to offer

According to a recent speech, John Swinney will focus on “the economy, jobs, the cost of living... the National Health Service, our schools and our public services... the climate crisis”. And he will “seek, with respect and courtesy, to persuade people of the case for independence”. Also, his big policy idea is to “eradicate child poverty in Scotland". Anything not a priority John? Just curious.

Of course, all of this is nonsense, which even a cursory look back at history tells us. Let’s start with ‘eradicating’ child poverty. As a previous column pointed out, no country has even come close to this. The best performers (Denmark, Finland) are stuck at ten per cent of children still within the definition and even to get to that level would require around a £5 billion funding boost, based on past estimates by the Institute for Public Policy Research and the Fraser of Allander think tank.

Such a laudable aim is repeated on a regular basis by politicians, all of whom know full well that they have no chance of reaching it, or even getting near it, but it sounds good, and caring. Meanwhile, the child poverty ratio in Scotland is stable at around 24 per cent, the same as when the SNP came into power.

The track record of John Swinney, seen visiting Alloa Academy yesterday, doesn't suggest he knows how to fix Scottish education's problems (Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

Swinney waxed lyrical in his support of this ideal in his first statement to the Scottish Parliament as First Minister but, if he is to live up to such fine words, he will need to be politically much braver and more radical than his predecessors, which seems a stretch.

Whisky and salmon exports

On the economy, Swinney may have, understandably, taken a back seat during the Alex Salmond era but even under Nicola Sturgeon there was no feeling that he was brimming with ideas in this area. Maybe Kate Forbes will do the heavy lifting, as she aims “to get the economy firing on all cylinders”, although I don’t think increasing exports of largely foreign-owned whisky and salmon is going to do much to transform Scotland. If past statements are anything to go by, her plan won’t include further tax rises, in which case a clash is looming as these would be needed to help fund a significant reduction in child poverty.

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On the NHS and schools, the former has huge Covid-related waiting list problems and the latter are slowly but surely sliding down the international Pisa rankings (unlike England). Let’s not dwell on post-school education funding and accessibility, other than to say that colleges and universities are less than happy with their lot. Nor is local government, nor are those who support more affordable housing being built. During most of the last decade, when these underperformances were stacking up, Swinney was the number two to Sturgeon so he can’t say he wasn’t closely involved in (failed) policy and funding decisions.

Then there is his track record on public policy reform, specifically with regards to the ‘game-changing’ Christie Commission Report from 2011. This was supposed to introduce a “radical new collaborative culture throughout our public services” including “achieving a radical shift towards preventative public spending” and Swinney was the minister tasked with responding to the Christie report and driving change forward. Not much happened.

Councils undermined

As the Auditor General for Scotland, Stephen Boyle, wrote in 2021, on the tenth anniversary of its publication, “the Christie report was an ambitious, visionary document. Over the last decade, we have striven to live up to that ambition but have fallen short. His clarion call cannot wait another ten years.” Well, we’re already another three years down the line with little to show for it.

A further Christie priority was that “effective services must be designed with and for people and communities – not delivered ‘top down’ for administrative convenience.” However, Professor James Mitchell, who was a member of the Commission, now sees the Scottish Government as a “power hoarder” undermining local government. Few would disagree.

If Swinney or the Scottish Government really did have the ending of child poverty as a core objective, then the 13 years since the Christie report was published has been plenty of time to make an impact. Had preventative measures – at suitably funded levels – been put in place back then, in areas like early years interventions, then inequalities would have narrowed and poverty levels fallen. But they didn’t. It’s too expensive when so many other areas require funding in order to stay in power.

Stop doing dumb things

Swinney has come up with a slogan that knits all this together – “economic growth for a clear social purpose”. He states that “with an economy working to its full potential, public services would get the investment they need to thrive, workers would receive fair pay and no longer be struggling with the cost of living, and not a single child in Scotland would be forced to live in poverty”. None of this will happen, certainly not in the six years, tops, that Swinney will be around. Which leaves the obvious question – what is he actually going to do? The suspicion is, very little, just stop doing dumb things, which would at least be something.

Maybe the parliament will settle down. Maybe the SNP will stop losing support. But if anything radical occurs, with respect to the economy, poverty reduction or the performance of public services, it would be a big shock given Swinney’s track record.

Professor Sir John Curtice has observed that, as Deputy Leader, Swinney was “absolutely brilliant because he could say nothing in more words than anybody else”, but this won’t wash in the top job. The lesson from Westminster – based on Rishi Sunak's current polling performance against equally undynamic opposition leaders – is that a tired party will not be revived by a well-organised but uninspiring leader who has little new to offer.

John McLaren is a political economist who has worked in the Treasury, the Scottish Office and for a variety of economic think tanks