Obama stands on brink of history

With Clinton vanquished, only the war veteran John McCain stands in the Democratic nominee's way as he bids to seal his place in the White House, writes Chris Stephen

THE sleepy town of Charleston, on the coast of South Carolina, has seen nothing like it since the civil rights marches of the 1960s. Squads of young African-Americans are going house to house in a fevered bid to sign up voters for the coming presidential election.

The reason is simple: fewer than half of South Carolinians vote in presidential elections and blacks make up a third of the state's population. So, if Democrats can get out the black vote in favour of their man, Barack Obama will be one huge step closer to the White House.

Democratic pollster Phil Noble has another demographic in mind when he outlines just how determined the canvassing has become: "They are saying, Granny-wise, 'pack the oxygen tent on your wheelchair and come down to vote'. The town is buzzing." He adds that generations of African-Americans have sung: "We shall overcome some day"; "It's not 'some day' we will overcome," says Noble. "It's today."

Barack Obama's astonishing rise to secure the Democratic nomination for the presidency has undoubtedly been responsible for this unprecedented enthusiasm among black Americans. But the story is the same across this nation of many colours. It is a country that seems sick and tired of the Bush administration and is desperate for change.

In one survey last week, 82% of people said their country was on "the wrong track". Obama is planning to be the beneficiary of this mood. But while his promise of 'change' – emblazoned on every campaign banner as much in reference to Hillary Clinton as to the Republicans – will be at the heart of his bid for the presidency, it does not guarantee victory.

For the Republican camp is also promising "change" – change from George Bush, most of all. And if US voters – especially the white working classes who seem reluctant to embrace Obama – opt for Change-Lite, they could give victory to the safer pair of hands represented by John McCain. Today, the wind seems to be behind the Democratic hopeful. A CNN poll on Friday identified the three greatest anxieties for voters; unhappily for McCain, his campaign so far addresses none of them, while Obama has placed each at the centre of his bid.

In first place came the crumbling economy, where collapsing house prices, foreclosures, a weakening dollar and rising unemployment are creating a feeling of foreboding across the country. Second was the war in Iraq, a conflict in which US combat troops have been engaged longer than in the Second World War; no victory is in sight, and the war is costing the US taxpayer $8bn a month. And in third place came health care: Americans pay on average double what their European counterparts do for healthcare, with insurance companies gobbling up much of the money.

Bolted together, these three key issues provide a snapshot of an America fast losing confidence in its leaders. Unhappily for John McCain, he has yet to offer the voters much of a solution to any of them. Regarding the economy, he has so far stuck to the free market mantra of the Republican party, arguing that just as markets go up, so they sometimes go down.

As one of the Senate's most vocal supporters of the Iraq War, he has also stuck to the Bush line that the war must go on until democracy is established, famously suggesting US troops could stay in the country for "100 years". You can expect to see that quote on a "this message has been endorsed by Barack Obama" TV advert several times between now and November.

And, on healthcare, McCain has warned that an expansion of state-provided and funded health services would be an undesirable further expansion of big government. Not so Obama, who has vowed to push America towards a truly national health service. He also advocates an early pullout from Iraq, with the fledgling government there to be told it will have to sink or swim. And, on that number one issue, the economy, he is proposing what amounts to a series of protectionist measures to shore up the US jobs market.

Specifically, Obama wants tax breaks for firms setting up plants on US territory and restrictions on foreign truck drivers entering the country. Finally, Obama has vowed to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, worried that Mexican cheap labour is undercutting American firms.

The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee has also made no secret of setting his sights on China, viewing the world's largest Communist state as a threat. His says his argument is not anti-trade, and it is one that is being made across the political spectrum in America: the global village doesn't work if some countries don't play by the rules.

Such comments have caused free marketeers and leader writers on the Wall Street Journal to throw up their hands in horror, but they may well hit home in two of the three most vital states he needs to capture, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Both these "Rustbelt" states have seen whole industries close and their jobs move abroad, with little of the promised "trickledown" benefits from globalisation in return. Obama has pounced on the closeness of McCain's policies to those of Bush, claiming he represents not change but a "Bush third term". McCain has shot back, branding Obama as "naive" on foreign affairs for suggesting he would sit down to meet with some of America's enemies.

McCain will continue to play the experience card, while emphasising the policies that separate him from President Bush – for example, his embracing of environmental issues and his call for a halt to torture at Guantanamo Bay. And the one area in which he does have a clear lead on Obama is the question of national security, where voters consistently give higher marks to the Vietnam War veteran.

But policy statements are only half the story in this election. The other half is what kind of a captain the voters are about to place on the bridge to weather storms yet to be faced. Bush, it is said, beat John Kerry in 2004 because America thought they'd be more likely to enjoy a beer with the Republican. This time round who will they head to the bar with?

At 72, McCain would be the oldest man ever to be sworn in as a first term president. Yet, despite the damage from war wounds sustained when he was injured then tortured as a POW in Vietnam, and a former smoking habit, he appears sprightly. In a preemptive strike, he last week revealed his health records to show he had no chronic illnesses, and those he has charged with finding his ideal running mate will be seeking vigorous, relatively youthful candidates who can offset their man's grey hair and wrinkles.

His fragrant second wife, Cindy, 54, will also be on near-permanent display. But one story last week – which accused McCain of swearing angrily at his wife when she teased him about going thin on top – added to his reputation for crankiness.

Where McCain would take America is also something of a mystery. Although he has been a senator since 1987, he has revelled in his outsider status. Though he ran for the Republican nomination in 2000, he was well beaten by Bush in a contest famous for its mudslinging. He now finds himself on the inside, as the de facto head of a Republican party which does not universally love him.

And while – despite his critics – Bush (or the Neo Cons around him) had a vision for America, as the dominant force in a post-Cold War world, McCain has no such clear theme. He also must overcome the failure of that very vision pursued by Bush in Iraq, which has left the Republican party demoralised and America diminished in the eyes of the world.

Obama's most pressing dilemma, in contrast, is closer to home. He must confront Hillary Clinton, who finally endorsed him yesterday, and decide whether to appoint her his vice-president. To appoint her would mean having a woman he dislikes buried deep in his administration. But to shun her might mean turning off the all-important working class whites who, she insists, only she can bring to the party. The smart money says Obama will disregard her, determined to fashion a clean break from the Clinton era.

On the campaign trail itself, Obama has moved the faster: his army of 1.5 million small donors has ensured money pours into his campaign, and he now has 800 staff fanning out around the country, compared to McCain's 250. Also McCain, having sacked five lobbyists from his staff in recent weeks, is having to rely on the Republican party itself to guide his campaign, while Obama has his own Chicago based operation.

As to the battleground, this is surprisingly simple. Despite Obama's promise to campaign in all 50 states, most pundits say the only ones that matter are 14 that could change hands – in each case, states where the difference between Democrats and Republicans in the last presidential election was less than 5%.

Presidential races are won by each candidate collecting states, with each state having a preset number of votes to a national election college, and the first candidate to get 270 votes wins. Both sides are using the last battle, between Bush and Kerry in 2004, as their starting point.

Back then, the Republicans won by 19 votes, so McCain's task for this November is simple: hang on to the states won by Bush. Obama, meanwhile, needs to find those 19 votes. If he can win either Florida or Ohio, and all the other results stay the same, he will get the presidency.

But it will be a hard sell. The great unspoken – so far – of this election battle is the issue of colour. The few polls that asked the question found that a fifth of Democrat voters simply wouldn't vote for Obama because he was black. The true figure may be greater, and will be greater still among the more conservative Republicans. Winning states such as Ohio may be impossible because of it.

McCain's task is to hold on to what he has, but he, too, hopes to make some gains, with Pennsylvania and those working class whites a prime target. Making the predictions business ever harder is the fact that America keeps changing by the day. Opinion polls showed Obama and McCain started their campaigns in a statistical tie, though there were early signs of an Obama bounce when he finally saw off Clinton.

The bottom line is that both men are new and, despite two decades in the Senate for McCain and months of bloody nomination battles for Obama, they are also relatively untried. Six months ago each was an outsider and many voters are still digesting the fact that each has powered though to an unexpected victory as nominee.

That will change as the election proper gears up. America will have plenty of opportunities to size them up to see who they want to lead a nation with a national debt of $9 trillion – at the two party conventions, in their choice of vice-presidential candidates and in countless newspaper articles and TV profiles. How the two perform in three formal televised debates may be key, but McCain has also challenged Obama to a series of face-to-face "town hall" meetings.

In the next five months, America will have a chance to decide whether it wants to have that beer with its grumpy grandad or its aloof, smarty-pants lawyer.

Well, could Britain deliver a black PM?

Mike Wade

IT'S the wee, small hours of the morning after a gruelling election has finally come to an historic conclusion. Through an ecstatic crowd, the newly elected Prime Minister has shouldered his way forward to the microphone.

"On this January night, at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn't do. Years from now you'll look back and you'll say that this was the moment, this was the place where Britain remembered what it means to hope..." The speech is lost is the cheers of supporters, many holding aloft placards of their black leader.

In fact, the words – or most of them – are Barack Obama's after his historic triumph at the Democratic primary in Des Moines, Iowa, set him on the road to become the first black man nominated as a US presidential candidate by one of the two major parties. But as America holds its breath, how long – if ever – will it be before this country delivers a black PM, the British Obama?

At first sight it's an improbable proposition. Ethnic minorities remain under-represented in both Holyrood and Westminster and no very obvious contenders stand out among the handful of black and Asian elected politicians. But scratch the surface, and some ambitious talents emerge who are young, gifted, and non-white.

Anas Sarwar, whose father Mohamed was the first MP to swear the Oath of Allegiance on the Qur'an, is spoken of in glowing terms by Labour Party colleagues. Some see more than a hint of Obama's appeal about their man. Already a prospective Labour MP, his photograph has been spread across the pages of the Daily Record, staring moodily out across the Gaza Strip, as if the candidate for Glasgow Central is already contemplating a global impact.

Sarwar, 25, laughs at the notion he could be the anointed one in Britain – "that must be tongue in cheek", he says – but recognises that Obama's inspiring vision and powerful oratory have a message this side of the Atlantic, for any politician firmly connected to his roots. Sarwar is "passionately British, Scottish and Glaswegian", and from that foundation he could go far, say his friends. "Anas is brilliant, handsome, charismatic, charming – and he has all the other skills and more," says one starstruck party colleague.

But he's not the only one with mould-breaking potential – and nor is it certain that the Labour Party will deliver the change. Pedal-driven, compassionate and in touch with its feminine side, Cameronian Conservatism has reached out to ethnic minorities. Inevitably, Adam Afriyie, the first black Tory MP, has already been compared to Obama. He seems rather taken with the thought. "The Conservative Party has delivered the first female leader, the first Catholic leader and first Jewish leader. The Labour Party has had none of any of those," says Afriyie, 43, who represents Windsor. "It's very much the Labour Party that has something to prove here, in terms of its leadership being within reach of all sections of society."

However, the British system militates against the meteoric rise of new political heroes, he warns. "There's more to becoming a prime ministerial candidate in the UK than being able and charismatic. In the US a fresh face like Obama can make it in one electoral cycle. In Britain it's generally a gradual process of service and promotion over years and decades before leading a political party."

Gerard de Groot, the historian and commentator, agrees. In Britain, charisma is buried, not embraced. "I just don't think the system allows for the Obama thing to happen. Personalities don't have the opportunities to impose themselves. They tend to get sterilised out of politics by the selection process, the party system and cabinet government," he says

By contrast, Obama has been able to harness the dramatic potential of the American political process. His soaring speech at the Democratic National Convention in July 2004 marked him out as his party's rising star. Once he entered the fray for the Democratic nomination he triumphantly used the primaries to fire up public opinion, and to generate eye-popping sums for his campaign funds. His charisma and oration have also helped him, to a degree, to transcend race.

"People are canny and want the best person to deliver for them," says Afriyie. "British voters are some of the most sophisticated in the world and I believe they'll make a fair judgment based on the attributes of any candidate irrespective of background or heritage," he says.

Sarwar agrees. He believes that race is neither a divisive factor in politics, nor a bar to power. "As long as people are not perceived as being held back, we need to see ethnic minorities progressing. Obama doesn't want to win people over because he is black, and that is the challenge for ethnic minority politicians here. We have to deliver regardless of religion colour or creed to the benefit of the whole of society."

De Groot is more sceptical. For all our apparent tolerance, race still influences where some people place their crosses in the privacy of the ballot and conditions opinions inside politics, he says.

"The time was right for Obama. The fact of his success is down to some sort of consensus in America, a sense that the time is right for a black president, a notion that people are willing him to succeed. I don't think Britain is necessarily ready for a Prime Minister from an Indian or Pakistani background. I think racist attitudes are a little more set; Britain can seem very racially tolerant, but I really don't know that it would extend to a black or Indian prime minister."

Certainly the statistics are not encouraging. In Scotland, where the majority white population represents 97.9% of the total, Bashir Ahmad, the SNP list MSP for Glasgow, is the only representative from Scotland's ethnic minorities among 129 MSPs. At 68, and having been an MSP for just a year, no-one is touting him as a First Minister in waiting.

And over Britain as a whole black people make up 2% of the total population (as opposed to 13% of voters in the US), which should be equivalent to 13 black MPs in the House of Commons. But of the 646 sitting MPs, only five have African or Afro-Caribbean antecedents and there are just 15 from all ethnic minority backgrounds.

But perhaps this is where Obama's impact could be most decisive, even in Britain.

"Whether Barack Obama wins the presidency or not, the very fact that he has been selected by millions of people coming out and voting for him, is proof of the strength of democracy in America," says Sarwar.

Key runners in race to be right-hand man

Obama contenders

JAMES WEBB, 62, Virginia Senator

Hits all the right buttons. He is older, white, represents Virginia – a swing state – and is a war hero, seeing action as a marine in Vietnam and winning the silver star. Ronald Reagan appointed him Navy Secretary before he switched to the Democrats to run for Senate in 2006. A good addition for Obama who lacks military and foreign policy experience. And he isn't Hillary Clinton…

6/1

JOHN EDWARDS, 55, former Senator for South Carolina

Came third in the presidential nomination race and dropped out. On Friday he repeated that he had no plans for becoming vice-president, but might reconsider if he was offered the job. He ran for VP with John Kerry in 2004. Previously he made his fortune as a personal accident lawyer, has crusaded for the poor and is a southerner.

7/1

BILL RICHARDSON, 60, New Mexico Governor

As former UN ambassador appointed by Bill Clinton he has heavy foreign policy experience, and being half Mexican-American, he would help secure large numbers of Hispanic votes.

10/1

JOE BIDEN, 65, Delaware Senator

Now Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he ran for president this year but dropped out after getting 1% in early races. Like Webb he brings to Obama the things that he is perceived as lacking – age, being white, and foreign policy experience.

20/1

Possible McCain candidates

TIM PAWLENTY, 48, Minnesota Governor

Pawlenty is another friend of McCain but is valued as a VP contender because he won as a Republican in a state that went Democrat during the 2004 presidential election. McCain would hope he could deliver the state to the Republicans.

6/1

BOBBY JINDAL, 36, Louisiana Governor

Real name Piyush, "Bobby" is the youngest Governor in America and just the second ever Asian-American to serve in Congress, which could help offset Obama's race card.

6/1

CHARLIE CRIST, 51, Florida Governor

The perma-tanned Crist is a favourite of McCain after endorsing him early in the primary campaign in January. Choosing him would be above all because McCain was determined to keep Florida and its 27 electoral votes – the key to Bush's win in 2000.

8/1

MIKE HUCKABEE, 53, former Arkansas Governor

Huckabee ran for the Republican nomination in 2008, coming second to McCain. Huckabee made no secret of his support, as an ordained minister, for Christian conservatives, many of whom are pressing his case. McCain, however, worries that appointing such a staunch moralist may alienate the swing voters.

10/1