Can $200m Obama win vital votes of 'poor white folk'?

THEIR fight was long and often ugly, but Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were preaching messages of unity yesterday as they embarked on a new battle for the soul of the United States.

With Mr Obama finally victorious in the race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, a sudden outbreak of civility and conciliation set the tone for the five-month general election campaign to come.

Mr Obama has a tough opponent in John McCain, and was embarking yesterday on a strategy to overcome the geographic, demographic and generational hurdles on his path to the White House.

On his first day as the Democratic presumptive nominee, Mr Obama phoned Mrs Clinton and repeated his offer to "sit down when it makes sense to you" to discuss the way ahead. But analysts agree it will take more than a peace accord between the two to beat the Republicans.

Mr Obama must connect with white, working-class families in the south and in the so-called Rust Belt, the north-eastern states such as Indiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia where the recent economic slump has hit hard. He struggled for support in many of those areas, including some Democratic "blue" states where Mrs Clinton picked up the majority of her party's votes.

How he stacks up against Mr McCain in a key number of "red" states won by the Republicans in the 2004 election could also be decisive. Among them are Virginia and Georgia, with growing numbers of African-American voters, and Colorado, with its mix of younger, liberal voters. Just a few of those, along with the states John Kerry won four years ago, would be enough.

"I'm probably the only candidate who can actually redraw the political map," Mr Obama said during campaigning last year.

So who else does Mr Obama still need to convince that the US is ready for a black president? "A lot of poor, white people," said Erwin Hargrove, professor emeritus of political science of Vanderbilt University, Nashville.

"We don't yet know how thin is the veneer of racial tolerance in this country," he added. "With the younger generation there's no problem, but there are still a lot of older people who are not comfortable with voting for a black man they don't know.

"He's going to have to go out into those states, campaign and do it for himself. I don't think his vice-presidential candidate will help him that much, unless it's somebody like Bill Richardson (governor of New Mexico] who could help persuade Latin and minority voters in places like Florida and California. The truth is we don't know until he tries."

Mr Obama's win was a milestone for a nation where, just decades ago, racial discrimination was so severe blacks in some states were barred by law from eating at the same lunch counters as whites, and many had to fight for the right to vote.

His accomplishment drew the attention of Condoleezza Rice, a Republican, who said his victory was an "extraordinary expression" that the first words of the US Constitution, 'We, the people' is beginning to mean all of us."

Another election issue could be the generational one, and to a certain extent, the cultural gap between the candidates.

At 71, Mr McCain has a quarter-century over his 46-year-old opponent and has made frequent reference to Mr Obama's "lack of experience". Yet Mr Obama's relative youth is a selling point for the Democrats.

"McCain could struggle because of his age," Prof Hargrove said. "While he needs a running mate to help him take Democrats and independents away from Obama, he also needs somebody younger, a world-class athlete who can succeed him if something happens."

Financially, Mr Obama's war chest to fight the campaign is far healthier than Mr McCain's, and experts say he will have no trouble raising the estimated £100 million he will need. As of 30 April he had raised £136 million from mostly smaller donors to fund his primary and general election campaigns, according to figures from the Federal Election Commission. Mr McCain has amassed only £50 million.

Last night, Mr McCain challenged Mr Obama to join him in ten meetings with voters between now and the Democratic National Convention in August, with the first proposed for 12 June in New York. Mr McCain shines at question and answer sessions. Mr Obama's skill lies in sweeping rhetoric. Yet the feeling is, that barring any upsets Mr Obama is the man of the hour.

"It's the Democrats' campaign to lose. But they can lose it," Prof Hargrove said.

From slavery to threshold of presidency in 143 years

KEY points in the rise of black Americans:

• 1865: End of American Civil War and ratification of 13th amendment to US Constitution, abolishing slavery.

• 1869: Congress passes 15th amendment: gives African-American men right to vote.

• 1870: Mississippi voters make Hiram Revels first African-American elected to US Senate. Joseph Hayne Rainey becomes first black member of House of Representatives.

• 1954: Segregation ruled unconstitutional by US Supreme Court.

• 1955: Rosa Parks refuses to give up her bus seat for white passenger.

• 1963: Martin Luther King delivers "I have a dream" speech in Washington DC.

• 1965: Civil Rights Act makes it illegal to discriminate on race, national origin, religion or gender in voting, public places, schools and workplaces.

• 1972: Shirley Chisholm becomes first African-American to run for Democrats' presidential nomination.

• 1984: Civil-rights leader Jesse Jackson wins 3.3 million votes and five contests in run for Democratic nomination.

• 2004: Barack Obama elected to Congress from Illinois, becoming only fifth African-American to serve in US Senate.

• 2008: Mr Obama becomes first African-American to run for president.

Key policies accentuate the crucial differences

THE policy differences between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were extremely limited – those between Mr Obama and Republican rival John McCain are much more pronounced:

• IRAQ Mr McCain, a staunch supporter of the war, says the United States could maintain a peacekeeping military presence there indefinitely, similar to the ongoing deployments in South Korea and Japan. Mr Obama opposed the war before he was elected to the Senate and says he would withdraw US troops within 16 months of taking office in January 2009.

• DIPLOMACY Mr McCain advocates a more vigorous US role in international diplomacy after the two terms of President George Bush and promises a push to rebuild frayed relations with the US's allies. Mr Obama emphasises negotiations rather than military action, and has said he would talk, without preconditions, with the leaders of hostile states, including Iran, Syria, North Korea and Venezuela.

• HEALTHCARE Mr McCain would end tax breaks for employer-provided health insurance and instead provide a refundable tax credit of $2,500 (£1,280) per person, or $5,000 for families, to help people buy health policies. He would promote competition by allowing people to buy insurance across state lines and make it tougher to sue doctors in some cases. Mr Obama has proposed a national insurance scheme to allow individuals and small businesses to buy affordable health care, similar to that available to federal employees, funded by a tax on employers who don't provide coverage. Individuals would not lose coverage when they switched jobs.

• TAXES Mr McCain would maintain Mr Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts that he initially opposed. Those tax cuts are set to expire at the end of 2010. He advocates cutting the corporate tax rate to 25 per cent from 35 per cent and would allow businesses to immediately write off capital expenses. Mr Obama would let tax cuts for the wealthy expire. For the middle class, he proposes a $500 (£255)-per-person tax credit, or $1,000 per family, to offset payroll taxes. He would eliminate taxes for elderly people making less than $50,000. He also advocates simplifying the tax-filing process.

• CLIMATE CHANGE Mr McCain favours a cap-and-trade approach to . He sponsored legislation in 2007 to cut emissions by 30 per cent by the year 2050. Mr Obama would cut carbon dioxide emissions to 80 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050, reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and require fuel suppliers to cut carbon content by 10 per cent by 2020.

• OIL USE Mr McCain has set no specific targets. He has said he will unveil a strategy to reduce reliance on foreign oil sources. Mr Obama would reduce overall US oil consumption by at least 35 per cent, or ten million barrels per day, by 2030 to offset imports from Opec nations.

No surrender but Clinton divorced from reality

IT WAS billed by the pundits as her concession speech.

Instead, the cry from Hillary Clinton on Tuesday night was "no surrender". Her supporters loved it, chanting "Denver, Denver" at one point, urging their heroine to carry the fight for the Democratic party's presidential nomination all the way to the party convention in August.

Mrs Clinton's defiance was startling and her speech, though lacking grace, was the best she had given in the campaign, even if it was divorced from reality.

Though she has been beaten, she is not going away: "I want … the nearly 18 million Americans who voted for me to be respected, to be heard, and to no longer be invisible" she said.

She told reporters she was "open" to the idea of serving as vice-presidential nominee.

A unity ticket was endorsed by California Senator Dianne Feinstein, a Clinton supporter.

It is by no means certain that she wants the job.

Nor is it clear that Mrs Clinton would be best served by being vice-president. Her own conviction that Mr Obama will lose to John McCain suggests that her interests are better served by waiting until 2012 for another tilt at the presidency.