Scottish independence: one-third may switch sides in referendum
Picture: Julie Bull/The Scotsman
ONE third of Scots are still unsure about which way they will vote in the independence referendum but almost 80 per cent plan to cast their ballot, well above turnout levels at the 1997 devolution referendum, the latest polls suggest.
The majority of voters also believe the referendum should be held before the SNP’s preferred date of autumn 2014.
Scots look set to vote “no” according to the Ipsos/Mori poll which was carried out last weekend and asked the exact question which the SNP Government proposed in its recent consultation: “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?”
Support for keeping Scotland in the United Kingdom has fallen to 50 per cent, down seven points from last December, according to the poll. The gap has narrowed to those who back independence which remains static at 39 per cent.
Of the 1005 people surveyed in the poll, 780 – about 78 per cent – said they will definitely take part in the referendum. This compares with a 60 per cent turnout level for the devolution referendum 15 years ago.
One third of Scots said they may change their minds about the way they vote, with two-thirds (67 per cent) having made up their minds on the issue.
Mark Diffley, research director at Ipsos Mori, said: “Outright support for independence has not shifted significantly as a result of these early skirmishes although it does reveal that opposition to change has reduced with more voters now weighing up the issues before deciding which side to back.
“The poll also suggests that the Scottish Government’s proposed referendum question has not yet had a significant effect on public attitudes.”
Opinion is split on when the ballot should be held, but most want it sooner than the autumn 2014 date which has been named by Alex Salmond.
The most popular option, shared by 47 per cent of Scots, is for it to be held by the summer of 2013. Less than a quarter – 22 per cent – of respondents backed the autumn 2014 date.
Opponents of independence also appear less likely to switch, with 18 per cent saying they may change their mind. Supporters of going it alone appear less entrenched with 31 per cent indicating they could change their minds.
SNP referendum campaign director Angus Robertson said: “This is an excellent poll, confirming that the momentum is with the independence case. The common feature of every survey in recent weeks is rising support for independence and falling opposition.
“The dramatic narrowing of the gap from 19 to just 11 points in such a short space of time tells its own story. The people of Scotland are listening to the positive case put forward for independence while the Westminster-controlled anti-independence camp are confusing voters with the mixed messages and a dictatorial tone.”
Shadow Scottish secretary Margaret Curran, said the polls were not the “breakthrough” the SNP hoped for.
She added: “Scotland is a proud country and most people are proud to work in partnership with the rest of the UK.
“It is a necessity that the SNP does not strip the Electoral Commission of its role in setting the question. They are neutral, respected experts and must not be cut out of the process.”
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Comments
There are 393 comments to this article
Page 1 of 27
Flakey
Sunday, February 5, 2012 at 03:41 PM1005 people questioned and they reckon that is the feeling of all 5116900 people living in Scotland?
norrieh14
Saturday, February 4, 2012 at 04:08 PMAll I Know is that a "NO VOTE for INDE " Will result in the biggest , most severe backlash from wastemidden , Make no mistake , you weren't overly loving with the thatcher burd , Apart from the gross Humiliation of a NO Vote , How would you cope with CAMEROON RECITING BURNS in your fizzog on a daily basis ?? I'D Rather drill my eyes out with a lawnmower and have my cajonie's smashed with a sledgehammer over razor wire !!
saltpeter
Saturday, February 4, 2012 at 01:58 PMson of hamish I wouldnt trust you period
saltpeter
Saturday, February 4, 2012 at 01:55 PMhave just read gerry hassans exellent article P28 4212 "So who will speak out for a better Scotland" gerry the SNP are trying their damnedest but are being bogged down in the totally negative reactions from the anti scottish brigade with their totally self interested views and a totally hostile press labour tory liberal are only interested in their cosy negative gravy train at Westminster they should be thoroughly ashamed ..The scots deserve a lot more
son_of_hamish
Friday, February 3, 2012 at 03:23 PMThe doubters will vote no, when stood in that little box about to put their "x" in the box they will consider the vast amount of uncertainty, their job, their house, their pension, their economic security and they won't be swayed by the outright lies of the SNP, and they shouldn't. I wouldn't trust Swinney and Salmond with the local footie club biscuit tin.
saltpeter
Friday, February 3, 2012 at 01:31 PMHow do the unionists reconcile themselves with this statement in a rabid unionist rag . Lets not kid ourselves : a country that has another country decide its taxes and spending is no longer a nation state. It has become a colony. Even if it refers to UK in the EU it most definately applies to Scotland in the current set up SNP take note regarding EU
bieldmaster
Thursday, February 2, 2012 at 08:28 AMT he passage of time changes the perceived political aims of all political parties;be they Labour ;Conservative;Liberal; S.N.P.et all.Within the limitations of available time and space;the party whoe's core reason-detre of purpose can be isolated to the simple crie-de-coeur ";total Independance"being the S.N.P.;theLiberals had in 1889 had begun the call for a Scottish Parliament but without success. For those who can recal pre-any official S.N.P formulation of party status in 1928The National Party Of Scotland was formed,becoming in 1934The Scottish National Party which campaigned for Scottish Independance.Over the years Robert Mcintyre,William Wolf,and Ewing family were but a few among many;including the "Stone of Destiny"acheivers who firmly set of on the route to gain total independance.. At this point in time the S.N.P have declared ";I want to remain within the United Kingdom"(Salmond) ";We will remain with Sterling Bank of Enngland(Swinney) being but two of a much reduced, so called Independance seeking party who will have original ,passed on stalwarts, "birrlin in their graves" ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- An on going ,improving DevolutionCalman report is a sensible pragmatic future road to navigate;there will be many bends ,many "stey braes" but in the dangerouse world we live in, maintaining a United Kingdom unity means for me a NO vote for total Independance.
panayiotis
Thursday, February 2, 2012 at 12:15 AMKon 353 - No 55% will not cut it,think of the referendum as a battle but getting Scotland dues out of London is winning the war. If you do not have 85% + we will forever be negotiating with London at our expense and time
panayiotis
Thursday, February 2, 2012 at 12:08 AM364 -i cannot agree with you, and comparing voting in a national referendum to how people choose their sports teams or recreational pastimes is not a good comparison. We are talking about the future of a country and its citizens the result of which will have a direct affect on each and everyone of them and for generations to come.This is not a political party choice this is whether the population of Scotland want to have an Independent and separate country .After the referendum then they can decide what political party they want to run their country and hopefully they will have several such as 1) The Scottish Democratic party 2) The Scottish Socialist party 3) The Scottish Christian Democrats 4) The National Christian Party 5) The Scottish liberal party 6) The Scottish Green party 7) The Scottish Conservative party And so on ,the SNP and the Unionist they will not be governing parties in a new Scotland Therefore a mandatory vote by everyone is going to have to be required to make this enormous decision,it cannot be left to just those who by choice care to vote that would be insane
whitstomatowiu
Thursday, February 2, 2012 at 12:06 AMAgent P - Dougie Bader,-------------------------Whats happened to all your Unionistas Friends have they seen the writing on the door?----------------------------Don't they agree with Ed and Dave's closer links and forming The Laboratory Party it's just an experiment at the moment but with Johann and Ruth and Gideon and Ed getting on like Great BALLS of fire you never know.------------------------I bet your pleased you don't live in England it's virtually a one party state now
Kon
Thursday, February 2, 2012 at 12:04 AM382 robbol, lol, in denial of self determination, it means just that and when you open pandoras box of self determination you cant close it, the regions satisfy the criteria as do each inhabited island, if they dont want to go then that is up to them.
Ayrshireguy
Thursday, February 2, 2012 at 12:00 AMKon, if you can't talk grown up, keep your idiotic mouth shut... you are just making a fool of yourself here. Don't bother me again. If I want to communicate with monkeys , I will go to the zoo.
Kon
Wednesday, February 1, 2012 at 11:51 PM379 Kinghob, assuming every region votes yes then you can all go, if the regions dont all want to go then they can stay, thats international law to the letter.
Cynicus
Wednesday, February 1, 2012 at 11:49 PM376 Agent P Wednesday, February 1, 2012 at 11:23 PM The SNP propose to use the £ sterling in a separated Scotland for 'at least a decade'!!!! Hilarious _________________________________________________________ Independent Ireland used it for 5 decades, Independent Australia initially used sterling too. _________________________________________________________
Kinghob
Wednesday, February 1, 2012 at 11:49 PMInternational Law, the UN will tell westminster what the score is when Scotland votes for self determination-no point in being moronic and pretending that your beloved westminster can somehow bully its way into being an asset stripper-it won't happen........it is good to know that you idiot scotsman resident unionists (all three of you) are beginning to see the way all this is going though!
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