1,000 cancer cases a day by 2030

Published on Saturday 4 February 2012 00:39

NEW cases of cancer could rise 30 per cent in the UK by 2030, experts will say today.

The UK ranks 16th out of 27 countries in the European Union for the predicted rise in cases, according to the data published by the World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF).

In 2030, there will be 396,000 new cases of cancer in the UK, estimates suggest – more than 1,000 a day – compared with 304,000 new cases in 2008, a 30 per cent rise.

This data differs to figures released by Cancer Research UK in October, which predicted the number of new cancer cases in the UK could rise by 45 per cent between 2007 and 2030 to 432,000 a year.

The new league table of 27 EU member states is based on World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates for new cancer cases in 2030 and leaves Ireland with the biggest predicted rise, at 72 per cent. Cyprus comes second (55 per cent), followed by Luxembourg (53 per cent) and Malta (49 per cent).

The rises could be down to a number of factors, in particular an ageing population.

Higher income countries also tend to have higher levels of obesity and alcohol consumption and lower levels of exercise, which increase the risk of developing cancer.

Eastern Europe is expected to see a less steep rise in the number of people aged 65 or over, helping explain why these countries fall to the bottom of the table.

Dr Rachel Thompson, deputy head of science at the WCRF, said: “We know people in high-income countries such as those in Western Europe are more likely to be overweight, to drink a lot and to be relatively inactive.

“There is strong evidence that these factors increase the risk of several common cancers. But many of these new cases could be prevented and lifestyle changes can make a real difference.

“In fact, scientists estimate that about a third of the most common cancers in the UK and other high-income countries could be prevented by maintaining a healthy weight, being more physically active and eating more healthily.

“Unfortunately, these figures are just as bad, if not worse, in non-European countries and the predicted increase in global cancer cases between 2008 and 2030 is 67 per cent – from 12.6 million to 21.2 million. This is due to an increase in the adult population as well as an ageing population.”

The figures are being released to coincide with World Cancer Day today.

Dr Kate Allen, science and communications director at WCRF International, said: “World Cancer Day allows us to draw attention to governments and call on them to do more to tackle the risk factors. Measures to reduce the fat, sugar and salt content of food and drinks and to improve the opportunities for physical activity are the type of developments we need.”

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