Why Cousin Vinny could cost us £2m

Published on Saturday 7 March 2009 18:50

IF YOU'RE not excited about the Cheltenham Festival, you should go straight to your doctor because there's definitely something wrong with you. Four days of speculating and accumulating, four days of whispers and gossip and untold amounts of money. Ah, this is the week we dream about all year. Punters versus bookies. The great rivalry reaches a crescendo in the Cotswolds.

We're setting out our stall early this year; in the very first race of the Festival, in fact. Cousin Vinny is one of the big Irish bankers of the week. It has captured the imagination of the people and there's an awful lot of them who have gambled on it capturing the Supreme Novices' Hurdle into the bargain. We're hoping it gets chinned. There's a few quid riding on it, safe to say.

If Cousin Vinny does win the race, we're going to refund all losing bets on the race. That's going to cost us a right few bob in itself. If Cousin Vinny wins, we'll be paying out until the cows come home. We don't have a clue how much it'll cost us yet, but we are guessing about 2 million. If, a little after 1.30pm on Tuesday, he comes roaring past the post ahead of the rest you'll find us digging a large hole in the betting ring and we'll be jumping in for cover.

I have been the length and breadth of Ireland over the past week at various Cheltenham preview nights, and the general consensus among the so-called experts – trainers, jockeys, owners and pundits – is that Cousin Vinny is a penalty kick in the first. Yikes!

I'm not a fan of tipping up favourites, though, and I have heard good things about Michael Flips, who is apparently flying at home for Andrew Turnell and could be a bit of value.

The big race of day one is the Champion Hurdle and Binocular is the red-hot favourite. He has dominated the discussions for ages. Many people think his odds will drift on the day, but I'm not sure about that. We took a 40,000 bet at 6/4 last week, so somebody obviously disagrees.

I have to say, I'm not altogether convinced about Binocular. I think the favourite might be vulnerable. Speaking to Ruby Walsh at another of those previews during the week he said that if they get Binocular off the bridle early he could be beaten.

Walsh is sure to try to do that on Celestial Halo, but I think that might play into Osana's hands. David Pipe is a man you have to respect. His horses are flying again and Osana is about 10/1 and loves Cheltenham. He's good enough for me.

For what it's worth I think L'Ami will win the Cross Country Race on Tuesday. Tuesday night, just sit back and count the readies or lick your wounds, whatever the case may be. No matter how bad it gets you know that tomorrow's another day.

Wednesday promises a cracking day's racing, and the best horse in training, and maybe the best we are likely to see for some time, is the star of the show. The only problem with Master Minded in the Champion Chase is that he's so good you just can't back him – where's the fun in steaming into a 1/3 shot?

He is a certainty though, bar a fall, of course. Just sit back and enjoy poetry in motion.

The Ballymore Properties hurdle is apparently a pretty wide open race. Every professional spouter reckons Diamond Harry is their lay of the meeting, probably a bit harsh for a horse that has never been beaten in six starts! He just beat Bensalem last time at Cheltenham and that horse is not considered good enough to run in this race, so I guess there is a hole in his form.

Karabak is Alan King's choice for the race and you'd have to take note of that as he's had two or three horses beaten by Diamond Harry so far, so has a good line into them. Also the fact that JP McManus stepped in to buy him recently could be considered a tip.

For an outside squeak, don't ignore China Rock. Mouse Morris has a habit of getting them ready just at the right time for Cheltenham. He's going to be at least 25/1 so might be worth a sneaky fiver each way.

After that one we have the RSA Chase, which always turns into a real slog. You need a good jumper and a dour stayer to win this. Cooldine flies the flag for Ireland and Ruby has chosen to ride him over Sir Alex Ferguson's What A Friend. That must be a guifr in itself and I can tell you that Ruby seems pretty sweet on him.

The only thing is that despite what we think, Irish horses hardly ever win this race and one of the English horses stands out for me. It's Gone To Lunch, who will be ridden by AP McCoy at about 6 or 7/1. As far as I'm concerned, he's one of the bets of the meeting.

Thursday used to be Inglis Drever Day, but now it's just plain old World Hurdle Day as the standing dish has retired. He beat Kasbah Bliss in the race last year and I remember standing there and telling myself that I'd just seen next year's winner. Did I back him at about 7/1? Of course not - I really am an idiot!

He should be odds-on for the race this year and could well be by off-time on Thursday, but I just can't bring myself to back a favourite at such short odds. It's Nicky Henderson's Punchestowns for me as he's the potential improver in the race.

The Ryanair Chase looked like it might be one of the races of the Festival, but the ground has cut up a bit and now Voy Por Ustedes looks absolutely standout as a bet in the race. He's the most consistent chaser in training for my money and I think he's a cert. It doesn't matter what price he is, he'll win.

The best preview night of all was in Monaghan, although it wasn't so much a Cheltenham preview night as an Oliver Brady preview night. If you haven't heard of this lad, you will! He has a horse called Ebadiyan in the Triumph Hurdle on Friday, and if he wins, they mightn't be able to run the Gold Cup until Sunday.

Oliver is a legend; he buys cheap horses and improves them. Ebadiyan was decent on the flat, but is really good over jumps. He's about 10/1 for the Triumph and is cracking value for me – one of the best of the festival.

If he does win, stay tuned or if you're at the track make a bee-line to the winners' enclosure. Brady will be singing songs, reciting poems, stripping off – basically doing everything he shouldn't. The bowler hat brigade will try and stop him, but believe me they have no chance.

Kauto Star is clear favourite for the Gold Cup, but I think he's a lay. No horse has ever regained the Gold Cup after losing it and let's face it Kauto is not as good at Cheltenham as he is at Kempton. Put a line through Denman and Madison Du Berlais. Denman isn't himself and Madison surely isn't as good as his last run showed.

Neptune Collonges will go close, but if he's 5/1 I don't understand how Exotic Dancer can be 10/1. Exotic would surely have beaten him or at least been very close when Neptune fell in the Lexus.

If it comes up good ground you should definitely have a few quid on Alberta's Run too. I can't believe they ran him on bad ground the last day. He loves Cheltenham and needs good ground.

We have loads of special bets as ever – bets on the weather, on the number of pints of Guinness drank, on all sorts of things – but my favourite special of all is our betting on the worst gamblers in history.

These are the type of bankers that punters won't be welcoming with open arms. Sir Fred Goodwin is the 2/1 favourite to be the first famously failing financier to be spotted at Cheltenham. He's plenty of dough to spend, but he wouldn't dare, would he? Risking the wrath of Festival goers is probably a gamble too far even for him.

Enjoy it this week. Be lucky.

Paddy Power is planning an invasion of Scotland. The Irish firm will open between 20-30 betting shops north of the Border over the next year

TOP JOCKEYS AND TRAINERS

Most wins by top current jockeys at the Cheltenham Festival

20 Tony McCoy

17 Ruby Walsh

15 Robert Thornton

13 Richard Johnson

13 Barry Geraghty

10 Paul Carberry

7 Carl Llewellyn

7 Timmy Murphy

4 Graham Lee

4 Davy Russell

3 Paddy Brennan

3 Andrew Thornton

3 Mr JT McNamara

3 Nina Carberry

Most wins by top current trainers at the Cheltenham Festival

31 Nicky Henderson

20 Paul Nicholls

18 Edward O'Grady

15 Jonjo O'Neill

12 Willie Mullins

11 Philip Hobbs

10 Alan King

9 David Elsworth

8 Ferdy Murphy

8 Nigel Twiston-Davies