Wallabies poised to bounce back against Blacks in too-close-to-call Tri-Nations decider

Published on Saturday 6 September 2008 20:04

THE TWO teams who go into what is effectively the Tri-Nations final next weekend in Brisbane do so on the back of starkly contrasting fortunes. While the Wallabies endured their worst defeat in the history of the game, a 53-8 shellacking at the hands of the Springboks in Johannesburg, the All Blacks barely broke sweat in running up 101 points against their near neighbours Manu Samoa last Wednesday.

So Saturday's match is a shoo-in for Graham Henry's men? Er, no. There are several reasons to discount much of what has gone before and the All Blacks coach is sure to do just that.

The Jo'burg encounter was almost a dead rubber. Only a bonus point victory by the Aussies would have made any difference and that was never really on the cards at the Springbok stronghold of Ellis Park. Robbie Deans, the ever-astute Kiwi who now coaches his nation's nearest neighbour, understood that and sent out a starting team with five replacements who made all the difference. Rest assured the replacements will be replaced come the big day next weekend.

"I am not sure I am even going to bother to analyse that game. I'm not too concerned about the numbers", said Deans in the immediate aftermath of his side's humiliation before going on to insist: "The Tri-Nations isn't over, both sides are capable of winning it."

It's difficult to call a winner next Saturday but then again it's been difficult to call any match in what has been a topsy-turvy sort of Southern Hemisphere season; everyone has been beating everyone else. The Springboks won in New Zealand for the first time in a decade before the Wallabies claimed their first victory in Bokke-land since 2000. The Wallabies beat the Blacks handsomely in Sydney and Graham Henry's men returned the favour one week later in Auckland. The final game is a winner-take-all scenario but while the Kiwis will start as marginal favourites, it's too close to call for anyone without a crystal ball.

If Robbie Deans does win his personal duel with Graham Henry there will be any number of I-told-you-so sorts in New Zealand. A win will give the Wallabies their first Tri-Nations triumph since 2001. New Zealand are ahead by one point in the table so need only a draw to give them their fourth Tri-Nations crown in succession.

It may come down to who has the best kicking game, the importance of which the new experimental law variations (ELV's) have only emphasised. Indeed the single reason the Springboks triumphed in Johannesburg was thanks to Butch James putting them in the right areas of the field from which to attack instead of running the ball from all points of the compass.

To that end Aussie supporters will hope that Berrick Barnes wins his race for fitness because the inside centre has a wonderful boot to complement Matt Giteau's instinct to run the ball from flyhalf.

But it is New Zealand that the Scots will be watching more closely than ever since the All Blacks pitch up at Murrayfield in November on the first leg of a potential grand slam tour of the UK and Ireland. With four matches in four weeks, Graham Henry will almost certainly mix and match his squad and, after losing a flood of refugees to European clubs, that squad is not as strong or as deep as it once was.

Mils Muliaina is back where he belongs at fullback after an unhappy stint at outside centre and the midfield partnership of Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith is one of contrasting styles but elsewhere the Kiwis may be a little vulnerable.

Carl Hayman has gone and Greg Somerville is headed to Gloucester although whether before or after the tour has still to be decided.

Bizarrely, if New Zealand have a weakness it may just be at flyhalf. Not Dan Carter, who is back to something like the form he showed against the 2005 Lions, but the back-up players who are falling like flies. Nick Evans is moving to Harlequins just as soon as Auckland are out of the Air New Zealand Cup. Carter's understudy at Canterbury, Stephen Brett, has recovered from a shoulder injury only to be laid low by a pulled quadricep. Luke McAlister is in his second year at Sale Sharks and so the Chiefs' Stephen Donald has been given his head.

Donald is a perfectly good playmaker, and a more accurate place kicker than Carter, but should he get a start against Scotland on November 8 he will be no better than Henry's fifth-choice playmaker.