Turkey and Russia worthy of top billing

Published on Monday 23 June 2008 23:44

ON PAPER it looks like a foregone conclusion. Germany to put an end to the Turkish renaissance with a thorough trouncing; Spain, having beaten Guus Hiddink's Russia 4-1 in the group phase, to win again, though not with the same margin of superiority.

Yet if there is one thing Euro 2008 has taught the professional pundit and amateur punter alike, it is that predicting any result at this most unpredictable of tournaments is a waste of time.

While the semi-final line-up tomorrow and Thursday might not exactly set the pulses racing or fill the coffers of either the joint hosts or Uefa, especially now that an estimated 120,000 Dutch fans have left town, no-one can say that the four teams involved don't deserve to be there – and that includes 66-1 outsiders Turkey.

Having had to endure four years of pain following arch-rival Greece's unexpected triumph in Portugal, you only had to witness the look of patriotism on the faces of those Turkish fans to realise what this tournament has meant in terms of restoring belief and national pride to a country which, only nine months ago, slumped to a 2-2 draw against the minnows of Malta.

Unlike Greece – and the distinction has to be made – Turkey have not placed all their tools in one organisational ultra-cautious basket. They may not have the natural skills of many of the sides eliminated here but fortune favours the brave and in that respect manager Fatih Terim, having injected a stubborn never-say-die attitude into his players, has fully justified his nickname "The Emperor."

But surely the journey has to end now. Surely Turkey have peaked and cannot possibly continue snatching victory from the laws of defeat? No fewer than nine injured or suspended players could miss the Germany game, striker Nihat Kahveci, whose wonder goal with the last kick against Croatia catapulted him into the spotlight, becoming Turkey's latest casualty due to a thigh injury. Terim now faces a tense 48 hours as he waits to hear if an appeal against goalkeeper Volkan Demirel's suspension is successful and whether Newcastle's Emre Belozoglu will be fit to play.

Hamit Altintop, arguably the Turks' best player against Croatia, is certainly making all the right noises. "In our team the players are flexible. We all speak the same language, that is the main thing," he said. "We would be delighted if Turkey could prove the second Greece."

With his trademark unbuttoned white crisp shirt and Mediterranean tan, Terim's emphasis on team play has paid off big-time. He has developed a squad with the mental resilience of a club side, a player's coach who treats them as soldiers going into battle. Whatever happens in Basel tomorrow night, his cult status can only be enhanced.

Germany will give the Turks all the respect they deserve, especially after a wobbly group phase in which they were beaten by Croatia. Against Portugal in the quarters, Joachim Lw's team at last lived up to their status and few would now bet against them winning the trophy for only the second time since the end of division. Expect Emotion is the slogan of the tournament and Germany – for all their reputation as heavyweight stoical juggernauts – have provided as much as any team.

Lw spoke warmly yesterday of his experience living and working in Turkey where he was coach of Fenerbahce in the late 1990s. Germany is home to more than two million people of Turkish origin and when Turkey qualified for the semi-finals, fireworks exploded in the sky over Berlin and other cities as tens of thousands of people celebrated in the streets. When the going gets tough, Germany invariably get going and it doesn't seem conceivable they will be upset tomorrow . Yet just as "never bet against the Germans" has become one of international football's oldest adages, so in this tournament has "never bet against the Turks."

Never, it seems, lay a wager either against Russia or their mercurial Dutch manager. That the Netherlands were undone by one of their own playing the Dutch way was the sweetest irony of the entire competition. We always knew Hiddink liked a gamble but playing his compatriots at their own game was a stroke of genius.

Five times Hiddink has taken teams to major tournaments, and five times he has successfully steered them out of the group stages. Russia may have started badly against Spain but the way they responded had the purists purring with delight. Hiddink may have already exceeded expectations but there is a train of thought that suggests Russia are the growing force in European football following Zenit St Petersburg's Uefa Cup win over Rangers.

If there was a better individual display in this or any other recent international tournament than that put in by Andrei Arshavin against the Dutch, answers please on a post-card. Having missed the first two games through suspension, it is surely only a matter of time before one of Europe's big boys break the bank to lure this most gifted of playmakers out of his homeland.

Hiddink has admitted to being "blown away" by the progress of his team and the quick-thinking Arshavin, but great technique, as they showed against Holland, runs through the whole Russian team. Even striker Roman Pavlyuchenko has suddenly woken from a footballing slumber, scoring goals and drifting lethally into spaces.

None of Hiddink's team play at any of Europe's top clubs yet they have got the better of some of Europe's best players. So how come? "He knows how we must play ... he knows about us technically, he knows about us physically, he knows what we must do. He is a top coach," said midfielder Diniyar Bilyaletdinov.

But good enough to beat Spain? No one , least of all themselves, expect Luis Aragones' team to have anywhere near as comfortable a ride as they did in the group phase when Russia were raw and nervous. But having broken their jinx against Italy in the quarters, the great under-achievers of European football believe their time has come.

Aragones, who will turn 70 in July, saw his side become the first Spanish team to make the semi-finals of a major international tournament in 24 years. Their penalty shoot-out victory over world champions Italy means the Spanish are unbeaten in 20 games an in David Villa and Fernando Torres, Spain have a natural strike pair who complement rather than hinder one another. They also have that much-needed collective quality – mental strength.

At 21, Cesc Fabregas has lived through only a fraction of the heartaches known by some of Spain's long-suffering fans but he must have felt the weight of history rise from his shoulders as his spot-kick swelled the net to signal the start of Spanish celebrations after 88 years of pain against Italy. As confidence boosts go, even if it was a sterile match, you can't get much more of a positive vibe.

Spain, this time, look the real deal. But with Hiddink in the opposing camp, Aragones is only cautiously optimistic, especially given the impressive levels of fitness demonstrated by Russia.

"It will be a very different game to our first one," he said. "They've got a physically very fit side and have had an extra day's rest. But we did the job and the team is convinced they can win this."