Allan Massie: It’s not how you start, Scotland, it’s how you finish

Published on Saturday 11 February 2012 04:25

WELL, at least Scotland will not be burdened with the tag of favourites tomorrow. Although Warren Gatland is cagey enough to dampen down expectations of a comfortable victory for Wales, you would be hard put to find any pundit prophesying a Scottish win.

If we are not seen as lambs lining up for the slaughter, we are very much the underdogs.

It’s all, or principally, because of the try famine. In other respects, this Scotland team is capable of matching any of our rivals in the Six Nations. We are likely to have at least an equal share of possession and territory, even if not the superiority we had against England. Yet ours is a team that continually disproves that French proverb which says “it is only the first step that counts.” Our first step is fine; it’s on the last one that we fall down. Against England I thought that, if we scored one try, we would go on to score two or three. It would have been like shifting the log which releases the jam. An early try in Cardiff might have the same effect. Conversely, the longer the match lasts without a Scottish try, the harder it will be to cross the Welsh line.

Wales generally looked very good in Dublin, keeping possession and going through phase after phase. They foiled the Irish tactic of the choke tackle by going to ground and recycling the ball. They were able to do this more securely because the Irish forwards were often a little slow to the breakdown and uncharacteristically ineffective at counter-rucking. If we do this more aggressively, we can disrupt the Welsh pattern of play

Ireland scored two good tries, on each occasion because they had managed to suck the Welsh defence in and then moved the ball wide quickly. Playing for Edinburgh, Greig Laidlaw has shown a quick appreciation of when to move the ball away from a concentration of players, either by a long pass or an adroit kick. Still, though one hopes to see Laidlaw play with the imagination and alertness he has shown for Edinburgh, one shouldn’t burden him with too much expectation. It’s his first international start at 10 and his first away international too.

A good many Scottish supporters would have liked to see more changes made after the Calcutta Cup. I daresay that would have happened in the old amateur days when wholesale changes after a defeat were quite usual. Sometimes it worked. In the first match of the 1986 championship we introduced six new caps and went on to have two very good seasons.

Professional coaches are usually more cautious than amateur selectors used to be, partly because they are closer to the players and know their capabilities better. In any case, Scotland so thoroughly outplayed England – in everything but the small matter of try- scoring – that it makes sense to keep faith with the team.

This is a very good Welsh side, full of self-belief despite their three narrow defeats in the World Cup. Their pack, with Gethin Jenkins and Dan Lydiate fit, will be stronger than it was against Ireland. Their three-quarters are big, fast, skilful and accustomed to scoring tries. Rhys Priestland is an accomplished stand-off and we all know how dangerous Mike Phillips is when breaking close to the scrum. Leigh Halfpenny will kick goals from anywhere, given the chance. Not many visiting teams win in Dublin in the Six Nations but Wales did, if only thanks to the award of that dubious last-minute penalty.

The Scottish halves can’t afford to kick as badly as Conor Murray and Jonathan Sexton did for Ireland – or indeed as Dan Parks and Chris Cusiter did against England. Any kick from hand that doesn’t put the recipient under pressure simply offers an opportunity to the other side. A lot of the time in modern rugby the kick should be regarded as an attacking weapon, not a defensive one. I think we tend anyway to overdo the box kick from our own 22. Given that the line-out may be an area where we enjoy superiority, it’s surely better to put the ball into touch. Even if Wales win their own line-out, the defence is in place, and so this may be less dangerous than giving them ball to run back in broken play.

We last won in Cardiff in 2002. Nevertheless our record there isn’t a Twickenham-style horror story and we have often played well there even when losing. In 1986, for instance, we lost 22-15 despite a 3-1 try advantage, Gavin Hastings missing all three conversions. None of us needs to be reminded of the extraordinary match two years ago, lost 24-31 deep in injury time when we finished with only 13 players on the field. Older supporters will recall a happier day in 1982 when we won 34-18 and scored five tries to the Welsh one. The first was set off by Roger Baird’s audacious run from our own 22.

How splendid it would be to see Max Evans or Lee Jones spark off a comparable score. Yet the 1982 one was made possible only by what I observed was lacking in our performance a week ago, the alert anticipation which ensures that the ball-carrier finds support. Baird had the No 8, Iain Paxton, on his shoulder, who had Alan Tomes on his – who found Jim Calder outside him to cross the try-line. Jones or Evans to Denton to Gray to Rennie – try under the posts. Happy dreams.

Comments

There are 1 comments to this article

Order by:

• Newest first
• |
• Oldest first

Page 1 of 1

• 1
• Show all

1

Aubrey Wilson

Saturday, February 11, 2012 at 11:06 AM

I wouldn't say that there is a lot more talent to pick from, so this is more or less the best team. I think that Scotland will score tries tomorrow. Wales can play a high temp game which involves risk-taking so leaving them open to counter attack. The loss of the first choice second rows for Wales (Charteris and Wyn-Jones) and now Davies, will be music to the ears of Andy Robinson. Expect Scotland to disrupt the Welsh linesout. This is vital to Scotland's chance of winning. Without that disruption, the Welsh backrow will create more havoc than a ferret in a shed of bantams and the Welsh backs will do the rest.

• Report Unsuitable

Order by:

• Newest first
• |
• Oldest first

Page 1 of 1

• 1
• Show all

Logged in as:

Comment here. Start typing your comment here:

Post comment

Please adhere to our Community guidelines

Your view

Please sign in to be able to comment on this story.