Martin Hannan: And they're off

Published on Saturday 13 March 2010 21:03

WHEN the bookmakers voice their fears of a caning at the hands of the betting public, it is usually a sign that they are confident of an upset to smash all punting plans to smithereens.

Bookmakers' predictions in the tabloids that they might lose 50 million or more at the Cheltenham Festival should be taken with a bucket, rather than a pinch, of salt. They say they fear that – in chronological order - Dunguib, Master Minded, Big Buck's and Kauto Star will win at short odds on each successive day, leading to massive payouts to punters.

With the latter three being trained by champion trainer Paul Nicholls and ridden by Cheltenham's "winningmost" jockey Ruby Walsh, the bookmakers are worried that the liabilities will mount up and be invested on Kauto Star, odds-on favourite for the Gold Cup on Friday. If the Star completes the foursome, it will empty bookmakers' satchels and tills.

Add Go Native, warm favourite for the Champion Hurdle, and Garde Champetre, outstanding market leader in the Cross-Country chase, and the bookies could be hit for six, or so they would have you believe.

The problem for punters is that all it will take is for one of the big favourites to go down and the bookies will be laughing. Yet for once at Cheltenham, they might just be girning rather than grinning.

For in the four championship races at least, the favourites really do have the form to inspire dismay in the bookmaking fraternity – Dunguib in the meeting opener, the Spinal Research Supreme Novices' Hurdle, is too short odds in my opinion, and I will leave him out of calculations.

So let's start with Tuesday's Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle, for which Solwhit was declared a runner yesterday despite being cited as 50-50 to run earlier in the week. With last year's winner Punjabi yet to fire and last year's third Binocular another that was declared late for the race, Go Native from Noel Meade's stable in Ireland heads the market with confidence and also stands to win a 1m bonus put up by betting exchange WBX.com, having won at Newcastle and Kempton already.

Go Native is a very good if not outstanding hurdler, and thanks to the excellent Isle of Skye whisky and WBX-sponsored Festival preview at Hamilton Park on Friday night, Scottish punters were assured from the trainer's mouth that the favourite is in good order ahead of Tuesday's race.

Speaking by telephone from County Meath, Noel Meade told the audience: "He's had a great season, he's in super form and I couldn't be happier with him. He's on the ferry even as we speak."

Meade admitted Go Native was no utter certainty: "There are a few horses in the race with not a lot between them, but I'm very happy training the horse I've got and I wouldn't swap him for anything."

Last year's Supreme Novices' winner, Go Native will have the assistance of Paul Carberry, the stylish Irish jockey who has had 11 winners at the Festival. It's a combination that had Meade's fellow Irish trainer Robbie Hennessy telling the Hamilton audience: "I think WBX will have to be writing that cheque for 1m."

Celestial Halo was mentioned by the Hamilton panel as an each-way contender, and last year's second is certainly that, available with Ladbrokes at 12-1 yesterday.

Wednesday's big race is the Seasons Holiday Queen Mother Champion Chase, for which Master Minded is odds-on favourite. On his day, he is simply in a different class to everything else. As the legendary jockey Peter Scudamore said at Hamilton: "He is the best two-mile chaser I have ever seen."

But making it three in a row will be tougher than ever, and Ferdy Murphy's Kalahari King will certainly make a fight of it.

The Ladbroke World Hurdle on Thursday is the championship for staying hurdlers, and Paul Nicholls wants it to stay in his stable courtesy of last year's brilliant winner Big Buck's. If anything, Big Buck's may have improved since last year, which means he is unbeatable.

Tidal Bay and Karabak will try their best, but if the anticipated rain falls before Thursday, watch out for former Gold Cup winner War of Attrition who could run into a place at a big price.

And so to Friday and the totesport Gold Cup. There are no words of mine that can usefully be added to the millions already expended on the clash between stablemates Kauto Star and Denman. Suffice to say that if Paul Nicholls can get both to the starting line fit and well, we will be in for a treat, maybe the race of a lifetime.

Denman showed in his magnificent performance in the Hennessy that he had fully recovered from the heart trouble that sapped him after his 2008 Gold Cup victory. The fear must be that Denman took too much out of himself in the Hennessy and he certainly did not look his best even before unseating Tony McCoy in the Aon chase at Newbury.

The Hamilton panel were unanimous in choosing Kauto Star to prevail. Noel Wilson, new trainer at the Belstane Stables near Carluke, and himself a Festival winner as a jockey, said: "Kauto Star is the best horse I have ever seen. Simple as that."

Peter Scudamore said he had been told from the Nicholls' camp that "Denman isn't the horse he was two years ago" which prompted the eight-time champion jockey to say: "I am not sure Denman will even get second."

Iain Turner, WBX betting expert, was adamant: "Kauto Star is an absolute certainty."

Last year's RSA Chase victor Cooldine, from Willie Mullins' stable, and Nigel Twiston-Davies' Imperial Commander, who was only beaten by a nose by Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase at Haydock earlier in the season, were nominated by the panel as the two main other contenders, and the latter is taken to make the frame.

This race is all about two horses and two jockeys, however. Kauto Star and Ruby Walsh against Denman and Tony McCoy. Friday cannot come quick enough, but there are three great days of racing beforehand and here are some tips to look at.

A selection of the other Festival likely sorts nominated by the experts at Hamilton on Friday night were: Sizing Europe e/w, 2.05 Tue; The Package, 2.40 Tue ("my best chance of the week," said trainer David Pipe); On Raglan Road e/w 4.00 Wed; Frawley e/w, 5.15 Wed; China Rock e/w 1.30 Thu; Secant Star e/w 1.30 Fri.

Good punting luck to you. You'll need it.