Scotland team to play New Zealand: Who should Gregor Townsend pick? Kinghorn v Russell, centre dilemma, two from three locks

Gregor Townsend spoke this week of “100 years of unfinished business” with New Zealand and on Friday the national coach will name the team he believes is capable of making Scottish rugby history.
Scotland's team to play New Zealand will be named on Friday.   (Photo by Craig Williamson / SNS Group)Scotland's team to play New Zealand will be named on Friday.   (Photo by Craig Williamson / SNS Group)
Scotland's team to play New Zealand will be named on Friday. (Photo by Craig Williamson / SNS Group)

Scotland have never beaten the All Blacks and, in truth, the quest has been going on for closer to 120 years. In 31 meetings between the sides New Zealand have prevailed on 29 occasions, with two matches drawn since they first faced each other at Inverleith in Edinburgh in 1905.

The Scots have long recognised New Zealand as the preeminent rugby nation and have tried to absorb as much as they can from the land of the long white cloud. Of the current squad, Finn Russell, Jonny Gray, Grant Gilchrist and George Turner were all sent to New Zealand in the early years of their pro career. As recipients of the Macphail scholarship, the quartet had first-hand experience of playing club rugby in Christchurch. Injury permitting, all four are likely to come into Townsend’s thoughts for Sunday.

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Scotland’s inconsistency this year doesn’t make selection any easier for the national coach whose side have lost six of ten Test matches in 2022. Last Saturday’s win over Fiji was a towsy affair and the Scots struggled to find much fluidity against opponents whose preparations for the match amounted to two training sessions. This weekend they will be up against arguably the most professional team in world rugby who bounced from a difficult summer by thrashing Wales 55-23 in Cardiff.

Jack Dempsey will vie with Matt Fagerson for the No 8 role.  (Photo by Craig Williamson / SNS Group)Jack Dempsey will vie with Matt Fagerson for the No 8 role.  (Photo by Craig Williamson / SNS Group)
Jack Dempsey will vie with Matt Fagerson for the No 8 role. (Photo by Craig Williamson / SNS Group)

Based on the evidence of the Fiji game and Scotland’s narrow loss to Australia in their autumn opener, Townsend will hope his more potent attacking weapons see more of the ball against New Zealand.

The back three

Ollie Smith impressed against the Wallabies in his second start for Scotland but the Glasgow full-back made way for Stuart Hogg against Fiji and it would be a huge surprise if Hogg did not retain the jersey against the All Blacks. He was outstanding when the sides last met in 2017 and came agonisingly close to a score-equalling try in the dying seconds which would have given Scotland a kick at goal to win the match. A lot of water has flowed under the bridge since Beauden Barrett stopped Hogg in his tracks but the Hawick man is a big occasion player and will relish the opportunity to lock horns with New Zealand again.

In Darcy Graham and Duhan van der Merwe Scotland have two of the most exciting wingers in European rugby but they need ball. Van der Merwe was starved of it against Australia but managed to cross the line against Fiji courtesy of Chris Harris’ pass.

Blair Kinghorn started against Australia and came off the bench against Fiji. (Photo by Craig Williamson / SNS Group)Blair Kinghorn started against Australia and came off the bench against Fiji. (Photo by Craig Williamson / SNS Group)
Blair Kinghorn started against Australia and came off the bench against Fiji. (Photo by Craig Williamson / SNS Group)

Centres

Cameron Redpath has returned to Bath and has been named on the bench for their match against Leicester on Friday, something of a surprise given how highly Townsend rates the inside centre. The coach had set great store in pairing Redpath with Chris Harris against Fiji given how well both played in the win over England at Twickenham in 2021. But the game may have come too soon for the Bath player, who is still finding his form after serious injury.

Harris seems nailed on to start at 13 against the All Blacks and the Gloucester back now looks likely to have Sione Tuipulotu inside him. Unless, of course, Townsend has a cunning plan to play Russell at 12 and take on New Zealand at their own game with twin playmakers …

Half-backs

Russell has not played a minute of rugby in this autumn series but has dominated the conversation nonetheless. In excluding the Racing stand-off from his initial squad, Townsend championed Blair Kinghorn and Adam Hastings. Kinghorn impressed as the starting 10 against Australia but his missed penalty in the final minute proved decisive. Hastings scored a fine try against Fiji but Scotland struggled in the first half and his game was ended early by injury.

That opened the door for Russell's recall but the smart money is still on Kinghorn to start at 10 against the All Blacks. The Edinburgh player was creative and dynamic against Australia and scored an outstanding solo try. He set up Smith for his score and had the vision to play in Tuipulotu and Jamie Ritchie for chances both players should have done better with. Russell is likely to have to be content with a place on the bench unless Townsend produces his curve ball and tries to accommodate both men in his XV. It shouldn't be forgotten that the pair finished the Six Nations match in Dublin together.

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Ali Price is a fixture at scrum-half, but Ben White looked good when he came on against Fiji.

Front row

Pierre Schoeman and Zander Fagerson are likely to be starting props but Rory Sutherland is coming up fast on the rails and will push Schoeman all the way. Townsend must decide between WP Nel and new cap Murphy Walker as his back-up tighthead. Expect experience to win the day.

Hooker is less clear cut. George Turner injured his shoulder and had to come off in the first half against Fiji but has remained with the squad. Whether he is fit enough to face the All Blacks is uncertain but Scotland have attractive alternatives in Ewan Ashman and Fraser Brown.

Second row

Richie Gray’s first Scotland start in over five years was a success and Jonny Gray also impressed when he came off the bench against Fiji, so could both brothers start on Sunday? Yes, although that would be harsh on Glichrist. The Scotland lineout was messy against Australia but much better in the Fiji game, albeit against lesser opponents. Perm any two from three.

Back row

Hard to see past captain Jamie Ritchie and openside Hamish Watson as the starting flankers, even if the latter was quieter than usual against Fiji. Who lines up at No 8 is more interesting. Matt Fagerson has done little wrong but Townsend might favour the more abrasive Jack Dempsey against his Antipodean rivals. Dempsey offers more of a carrying threat, something which was missing from the back row last weekend.

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