John Huggan: Colin Montgomerie's choice of wildcards for the Ryder Cup may be as much about golf politics as the players' suitability for Celtic Manor
Let's start with what's not going to happen.
When Colin Montgomerie sits down at around five past six this evening to announce the names of the three golfers who will complete the 12-man European squad charged with the task of regaining the Ryder Cup from those damned Yankees, he will not be brave enough to stick to his initial instincts/principles and exclude all of the four "Fed-Ex Fearties" - Padraig Harrington, Paul Casey, Luke Donald and Justin Rose - from the side that will line-up at Celtic Manor on 1-3 October. At least two members of the dollar-driven quartet are more than likely to get the nod from the man who, only a few months ago, insisted that a show of European Tour loyalty - also known as an appearance at this past week's Johnnie Walker Championship at Gleneagles - was all but mandatory for anyone keen to curry favour with the non-playing skipper.
In fact, it would come as no surprise to see and hear Monty burn all three of his wildcard picks on members of the "feartie" fraternity, such are the many and varied political machinations at work behind the Ryder Cup scenes. While that would be a hard sell to many members of the European Tour family, those whispering loudest in the Monty lughole will care little for such sensibilities.
For one thing, we can almost certainly assume that Casey will be making his fourth successive appearance in the biennial battle. The nauseating smugness displayed by Casey at the end of the recent USPGA Championship - in which he tied for 12th, a so-so position he seemed strangely satisfied with - was indicative of a man who already knew something the wider world will learn only later today. (Throw in his ludicrous claim that he is missing Gleneagles because of a burning desire to play in the PGA Tour's Tour Championship and the Englishman's already shaky credibility is all but shot completely).
For another, the presence of Casey, Donald and Harrington within IMG's wide-ranging portfolio will equally have done them no harm in the mind of Monty.
Truly, it is disappointing that it has come to this, a situation where four multi-millionaires place filthy lucre higher on their list of priorities than support of the tour that afforded each of them such rich earning opportunities in the first place. A quick glance at the scheduling choices made by three of the four this year - Donald made a bit of an effort to play over here - makes it clear they view their presence in the Ryder Cup side as somehow preordained and theirs as of right.
Normally so thoughtful, modest and sensible, Harrington, who strangely skipped both the lucrative French and Scottish Opens in the lead-up to the Open at St Andrews, let himself down badly when making the obviously ludicrous claim that he had "done all I can" to qualify for what will be his sixth Ryder Cup appearance. Plus, it is hard to imagine that the riches available in the Fed-Ex boondoggle will alter his opulent lifestyle even a little bit.
It is probably a moot point when set against the arrogance that apparently comes so naturally to those blessed with the talent to make a living across the pond, but a sound enough case can be built in support of excluding at least three of the four "fearties".
Think about it. Donald, Casey and Rose are all US-based and have been for some time. They all play the vast majority of their golf on the PGA Tour, a place that has little in common with Wales in October. Presumably, they have all spent much of their practice time working on hitting the ball higher through the air, in order to better take advantage of the relatively windless and soft underfoot conditions that prevail stateside. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Celtic Manor in October may not be ideal for those who more enjoy the warmth and blandness of the American Tour. Certainly, the high blast isn't going to be the shot of choice too often if typically breezy autumnal weather is in place.
The thought also occurs that the PGA Tour may be the richest circuit on the planet, but is it really the place that produces the very best players? Is it really the best place to play? Three of this year's four major winners are not PGA Tour members. And neither is Lee Westwood, the man who has performed most consistently in Grand Slam events over the last couple of years. For whatever reason, those more used to European conditions are currently performing best at the highest level. And, correct me if I'm wrong, last time I looked Celtic Manor was in Europe.
The sadness of all this, of course, is that it has for so long been so predictable. No matter how many incentives were put in place to encourage Europe's elite players to play in more European events, the harsh reality is that most of them will not. So, as soon as the European Tour decided to take first four qualifiers from the ‘"World Points List", then the five leading money-winners on the European Tour during the year-long qualifying period, the present stramash was always on the cards.
Indeed, the tour's folly is obvious if one flips the qualifying system. If five from the money list had been given precedence over those on the world list, the team would currently read as follows: Westwood, Martin Kaymer, Rory McIlroy, Graeme McDowell, Ian Poulter, Donald, Edoardo Molinari, Harrington and Rose. And if Monty's picks had been reduced to two, Francesco Molinari would be next up. In other words, that method would identify eight of the world's top-20 players, as opposed to the five the current qualification system has thrown up.
OK, let's assume for a moment that Monty doesn't do any of the above and instead opts to reward the likes of Edoardo Molinari, Alvaro Quiros and Robert Karlsson for their combination of fine play and a moral superiority highlighted by their habitual presence in European events. Ach, let's not even bother. As he left the USPGA Championship earlier this month, Monty declared to the world that he had "talked to every player I need to". Well, except the elder Molinari that is. Then, during his press conference last Wednesday at Gleneagles, the eight-time European number one was dropping more not so subtle hints that his mind is already made up, even as he claimed that it wasn't.
In response to a question as to how he balances guys who support the tour versus what is "best" for the team, the 47-year-old Scot was hardly encouraging to the stay at home camp.
"I will be selecting the best 12 players," he said, ignoring the fact that he will actually be selecting three players. "My remit at the start of this campaign - and it's never changed - was to assemble the best 12 players for Europe to try and regain the Ryder Cup.
"The situation of players not attending here has changed, in my opinion, in that I feel that I'm glad that those players who may well get selected are playing competitive golf in America right now. I think that's very important. So I support their choice."
OK, prediction time. While this column will be rooting hard for at least one of Molinari, Quiros and Karlsson to make it, the feeling here is that the British Isles contingent will prevail. Expect Donald, Casey and Harrington to get the nod.
Padraig
Harrington
For: three-time major champion, vastly experienced.
Against: hasn't won Ryder Cup match since 2004, recent form mediocre to poor.
Justin Rose
For: ranked 22nd in the world, twice a winner on PGA Tour this year.
Against: See Casey re caring.
Robert
Karlsson
For: enormously long off the tee, played well in last Ryder Cup.
Against: eye problem cost him much of 2009, glandular fever some of 2010.
Alvaro Quiros
For: longest hitter in professional golf, great personality for team room
Against: inconsistent.
Paul Casey
For: ranked ninth in the world - strong record in match play.
Against: was picked last time and didn't win a match; does he really care about the Ryder Cup?
Luke Donald
For: tenth in the world, enormously consistent.
Against: relatively short off the tee, not the greatest putter.
Simon Dyson
For: has played consistently well this season, in form.
Against: poor pitcher of ball, appears dodgy under pressure.
Edoardo Molinari
For: great putter, obvious partner in brother Francesco.
Against: can't think of anything.
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