When will the exile end?

Published on Sunday 18 June 2006 01:25

SCOTLAND, plus World Cups, plus anniversaries, equals squirming. On Friday, it will be exactly eight years to the day since the national side contested a match in any major finals; a 3-0 drubbing by Morocco fatal to hopes of progressing beyond the group stages in France 98.

Last Friday, it was exactly 16 years to the day since the country actually won in the finals; a 2-1 success over Sweden in Italia 90 the only victory achieved by our football representatives in dark blue on the biggest stage over the past 24 years. Later this year, meanwhile, a quarter of a century will have elapsed since Scotland topped a World Cup qualifying group; nowadays the only means of guaranteeing a place in the finals.

Pining for a bygone era when Scotland would somehow find a way to reach the tournament, then somehow find a way to flunk out once they were there, could become a once-every-four-years national pastime for God knows how long. For the on-going German finals not only intensify the pain of exile but offer indications as to why that may not end any time soon.

Europe provides 13 of the 32 World Cup participants. In the case of current competitors Ukraine, Croatia and Serbia and Montenegro, these countries figure among a huge swathe of football nations that did not exist when the Cold War was still casting an icy chill across the continent in the 1980s. Then, after two successful qualifying campaigns in the 1970s, Scotland made it five straight finals appearances in claiming one of the 13 places available to 33 hopefuls. When the qualifying campaign for the 2010 World Cup begins in little over two years, Scotland will have to be among 13 successful teams from up to 54 entrants in order to avoid their longest period without an appearance in the finals over the entire post-war period.

It seems barely credible that only last decade Scotland played in four major finals - the World Cup in 1990 and 1998, and the European Championships of 1992 and 1996. Craig Brown was a member of the Scotland coaching team for all of these, progressing from assistant to Andy Roxburgh to national coach for the latter two. "When I tell people in England I was at three World Cups with Scotland they laugh," says Brown, who also featured in Alex Ferguson's backroom team for the 1986 finals. "They say they didn't think Scotland ever played in three World Cups. Certainly it has become much more difficult to reach the finals with the emergence of teams such as Ukraine. But not impossible. These current finals have shown that there has been a levelling up in the quality of the smaller nations, and a levelling down among some of the bigger countries."

Scotland, although a smaller nation, have been undone by the levelling down. For as much as the World Cup has changed, they have changed. Never mind the golden crop of players of the 1970s and 1980s that included Kenny Dalglish, Joe Jordan, Graeme Souness, Willie Miller, Alex McLeish and Jim Leighton. Although Scotland were well short at France, in qualifying for the 1998s finals they could count on Paul Lambert, Gary McAllister, John Collins, Colin Hendry, Kevin Gallacher, Tom Boyd and Colin Calderwood.

The pedigree of these players is sometimes forgotten. Lambert was a Champions League winner and had enjoyed title success alongside Boyd at Celtic, while McAllister, Hendry and Gallacher were all pivotal figures in Premiership triumphs. Collins, meanwhile, had helped Monaco to the French title and the latter stages of the Champions League, while Calderwood spent six years with Tottenham Hotspur.

There is no question that, in such as Craig Gordon, Scott Brown, Shaun Maloney, Chris Burke, Kevin Thomson, Kris Boyd and Steven Naismith, the country presently has its most exciting crop of young players in a decade. But it is a stretch to believe that any Scot will contribute to the landing of the Premiership, the French title or the Champions League across the next generation.

And if some look to Trinidad and Tobago and, even, Angola, as proof that teams can be competitive in the World Cup with even the most modest resources, it is worth noting that the duo's ability to surprise has been founded on defensive power. Aside from Andy Webster, no Scots in their early 20s appears capable of providing the solidity that the Boyd-Hendry-Calderwood axis provided. A buttress responsible for Brown's team conceding only five goals across two qualifying campaigns in the second half of the 1990s.

"One problem is that young Scottish players within our set-up are not being exposed to the standards required of them when stepping up to the national side," says Fulham technical director Brown. "The English Championship is more competitive. And, following his time at Blackburn, Barry Ferguson will tell you just how much greater are the demands made of any players in the English top flight.

"But I am an optimistic. The culture of negativity that surrounds the national team can become a self-fulfilling prophesy. Walter Smith has made great strides, we have more and more young players as first-picks for the top clubs in Scotland and our under-19s have qualified for the European Championship finals for the first time in two decades.

"I firmly believe our next appearance in a major finals can be in the 2008 European Championships. With Italy, France and Ukraine in our qualifying group it looks daunting. But they will cut each other's throats, allowing us to nudge through."

It is surely wishful thinking to imagine that Scotland will be holed up somewhere in Austria or Switzerland two years from now. But perhaps no more fanciful than picturing them in South Africa in 2010.

Will Scotland ever make it to a World Cup finals again?

PLAYER: TOM BOYD

I'm hopeful that there will be a future band of Scotland internationalists who will follow in the footsteps of my generation and play in a World Cup. I just don't know that it will be any time soon. Reaching finals is becoming more and more difficult with the number of teams in the mix having grown and Scotland have to be lucky with the qualification draw.

I think we are heading in the right direction under Walter Smith. He has dispensed with the experimenting of the Berti Vogts era that made us susceptible to losing stupid goals through being open. We don't have world-class players and must concentrate on stopping those playing.

If you do that, as Croatia and Trinidad and Tobago have shown, it is possible to bridge the talent gap and we might have proved competitive if setting out our stall that way in Germany.

Former Celtic captain Tom Boyd was in the last Scotland team in the finals (1998)

PUNDIT: GORDON SMITH

The World Cup has shown that standards have been raised all around the globe. Very few teams have been embarrassed. The exceptions are Serbia and Montenegro, beaten 6-0 by Argentina, and the Ukraine, who lost 4-0 to Spain. And in the case of Ukraine, it could be hardly said that they are lacking after being the first qualifiers for the finals from Europe. We have a way to go to reach the required standards from continents whose football we had little respect for not so very long ago. But, after the Kirin Cup, it would appear Walter Smith is laying foundations to build on.

A strong indication of whether we can expect World Cup involvement in the near future will be provided by our Euro 2008 experience. Normally it would be no disgrace to finish behind Italy, France and Ukraine but if that happens it will push us down the rankings for the 2010 World Cup qualifiers.

Gordon Smith is a television and radio analyst and football agent.

PUNTER: ALAN DUNCAN

It doesn't feel like eight years since we were in the World Cup; since we were in any major championships, in fact. But I fear finals will keep on slipping past as long as the structures in Scottish football remain unchanged. Smaller nations have come on leaps and bounds as we have gone backwards because we lack dynamic leaderships. That will never be provided by people such David Taylor, John McBeth and John Smith.

We need to start from scratch when it comes to putting systems in place for bringing through young players.

I'm concerned that we could even struggle against Lithuania in the Euro 2008 qualifiers.

To turn it around at international level we must fast-track more bright prospects at the expense of the old guard in the team - and rid ourselves of the old guard in the corridors of Hampden.

Alan Duncan is chairman of the north of Scotland Tartan Army.

POLITICIAN: MICHAEL MATHIESON

I am optimistic that Scotland can be in South Africa when the World Cup arrives there in 2010. So many exciting young talents are emerging that I believe we already have the makings of successful squad in our midst. These players will have two more years' experience at international level and in Europe with their clubs before the World Cup qualifying campaign begins in 2008.

Look at the progress made by Walter Smith in little over a year.

Clubs across Scotland have reverted to rearing from within. That may have been for financial reasons but the rapid development of the players produced - mostly aged between 19 and 23 - has surely exceeded expectation.

After a barren period, we are witnessing the shoots of recovery and I can see no reason why the international team will not ultimately reap rich rewards.

Michael Mathieson is an SNP MSP and party spokesman for culture and sport