Drop back to seven furlongs should help Gosden's filly land £155,000 Betfair Cup

Published on Monday 28 July 2008 23:49

HATS of all shapes and sizes will be in evidence over the five days of Glorious Goodwood, but as far as punters and bookmakers are concerned, there's only one piece of headgear that really matters.

The dunce's cap, or more accurately, how to ensure they're not the ones left wearing it come Saturday night.

As glorious as the meeting surely is, it's hardly the cushiest fixture in the world to pick winners at, a quick glance at this afternoon's opening card perhaps offering an insight into why. If it was easy, though, those odd occasions when it magically all falls into place wouldn't be nearly as much fun, so bring it on!

Race of the day is the Betfair Cup in which Infallible can put a frustrating run of near things behind her. In her early career, John Gosden's filly looked as if she might live up to her name by winning her opening two starts, form which saw her sent off a well-fancied 7-2 shot in the 1,000 Guineas.

She finished fourth in the Classic before chasing home Lush Lashes in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot and then occupied a similar position behind Nahoodh back at Newmarket. All three of those runs came over a mile but it could be that trip just stretches Infallible's stamina so dropping back to seven furlongs here should help.

Two of Spin Cycle's successes this term came at Hamilton and Musselburgh but Bryan Smart's youngster produced easily his best performance when going down by a head in the Norfolk.

On that display, he's the one the others have to catch in the Molecomb.

Not much has gone wrong for Aidan O'Brien lately but Hebridean's last-place finish in the King Edward VII at the Royal meeting was a rare, and pretty spectacular, blip.

Well in front of the Ballydoyle runner that day was Conduit but Hebridean's effort was so tame, something must have not quite right, so we'll stick with Irishman when the pair clash again in the Gordon Stakes.

Milne Graden boasts an unblemished record and Jeremy Noseda's runner can keep it that way, even though he's going where he's never gone before by attempting a mile and three quarters for the first time.

That's considerably further than he's been in the past but presumably his handler is confident of the gelding's staying power as he's entered Milne Graden in both the Ebor and Irish St Leger. In the circumstances, we'll bow to Mr Noseda's knowledge as he probably knows more about that game than I do. No sarcasm, please.

Proponent can get the meeting off to a winning start for us in the opener, while Orchard Supreme will no doubt prove to be the not-so-glorious nap.

No-one could ever accuse the best bet of being work shy as this will be his 50th appearance on a racecourse and considering he's only been on the go for about three years, he's clearly been a busy boy. Most of his winning has been done on the all-weather but he has scored on grass, including over today's course and distance a couple of months back, and his last time out second to Military Cross at Salisbury was a pretty decent effort.

Horses who have run well at Goodwood in the past frequently return to do so again, and Orchard Supreme is fancied to show just how much he enjoys careering along the Sussex Downs.

He'll do his careering at a big price as well, which always make any victory taste that much sweeter.

All he has to do now is win.