Allan Massie: Odds favour Ireland, but favourites have been known to fall

Published on Friday 13 March 2009 21:15

IRELAND'S coach, Declan Kidney, has added his voice to the chorus of those bewailing the demise of the rolling maul. It means there is now less space on the field, he says, and this is why players have been reduced to playing rugby-tennis. His complaint is pretty fair nonsense.

For one thing some of the direst examples of rugby-tennis were to be seen in the last World Cup – before the introduction of the ELV which permits the pulling-down of the maul. Then again, while theoretically the maul should have provided the space on the field which Mr Kidney says it did, in practice things were very different.

The great exponents of the maul – teams like England, Argentina, Italy, Munster and Leicester – rarely used it to create space. More often they rumbled up field towards the opposing try-line in the hope of either powering their way over it, or winning a penalty when in desperation the defending side pulled the maul down. The ELV which permits this is one of the more worthwhile experiments. One might observe that, perhaps as a consequence, Munster are now playing more attractive and adventurous rugby than they used to. Thought I'd get that off my chest.

Ireland quite properly start as favourites today, even though it is still the case that the majority of Six Nations matches are won by the home side. After three rounds this season the score is: Home 7, Away 2. Wales won at Murrayfield when Scotland played well below their ability, and Ireland won in Rome, though Italy outplayed them for most of the first half.

It's possible that the home-away score may be evened up a bit this weekend, for Wales (in Rome), Ireland (at Murrayfield) and France (at Twickenham) may all win. That would surprise few, if only because they are generally reckoned to be the best three sides in the championship. On the other hand there may well be at least a couple of home victories.

Nevertheless Ireland are favourites, partly because they are on a winning roll, partly because, man for man, they look the better side. This calculation can be deceptive. A fortnight ago, reviewing the line-up at Croke Park, I concluded that if you were to select a composite Ireland-England XV, you might be hard pressed to find room for more than a couple of Englishmen – say, Harry Ellis at scrum-half and perhaps Andrew Sheridan at loose-head prop. Yet England came quite close to winning that game – thanks in part to Ronan O'Gara's unusually incompetent place-kicking, but also because for most of the match they weren't outplayed, at least while they managed to keep 15 men on the field.

The disparity is not so great this afternoon. Nevertheless a composite Scotland-Ireland side might include no more than four or five Scots.

Declan Kidney has made four changes to his team today. Unfortunately we can't say they weaken it. Quite the contrary in the case of the return of Gordon D'Arcy instead of Paddy Wallace. The return of Peter Stringer is a bit of a surprise, for Thomas O'Leary has played well and will probably play at Cardiff next week. The section of Rory Best in place of Jerry Flannery at hooker may well be a tribute to the respect Kidney feels for the Scottish set-scrum. It suggests that Ireland will go for an eight-man shove on the Scotland put-in. We may be happy to see Denis Leamy at No 8, and not Jamie Heaslip, for Heaslip has been one of the stars of this season. Doubtless he will make an appearance at some stage.

Normally one would say that it's imperative Scotland make a good start to put pressure on an Ireland side with its eyes, perhaps a bit nervously, on the elusive Grand Slam. But there is so much experience as well as talent in this Irish side that I can't see them panicking if they fall behind. Indeed things might work out the other way round, with Scotland freezing if they find themselves protecting an early lead, and then playing ultra-defensively. So paradoxically our best chance of winning might be if we found ourselves 6-9 points behind with 20 minutes to go, and then had to chase the game.

What we must do is cut out the unnecessary mistakes and lapses of concentration that have marred our three previous matches. We have, for instance, dealt poorly with kick-offs, surely as unnecessary as it is unforgivable. There have also been too many dropped passes, too many risky off-loads, too many balls lost in the tackle. The trouble is that if you concentrate on eliminating errors, you may find yourself playing safety-first and also eliminating the audacity we probably need to display if this game is to be won.

It can be won if the front five exert sufficient pressure to give the back-row of Strokosch, Taylor and Barclay freedom to roam, if Mike Blair, fully fit as he wasn't against Italy, recovers his form of the autumn and takes more on himself, and if we find the means to bring our back three – with Thom Evans's pace, Simon Danielli's power and Chris Paterson's alacrity and elusiveness – into play often enough in good positions.

Yet the odds are on Ireland; no point denying it – even though favourites have been known to fall often enough.