Allan Massie: Supremacy up front vital to any chance of finest result in years

Published on Friday 20 November 2009 22:53

WHEN Australia beat Scotland in the autumn of 1984 on the way to their Grand Slam of victories, this was only the second time they had been victorious at Murrayfield. We haven't beaten them since.

This reflects an improvement in Australian rugby rather than a decline in ours. Having been very much the poor relation of the southern hemisphere Big Three, Australia blossomed in the 1990s. Like South Africa, Australia have won the World Cup twice while New Zealand and England have each done so once. The remarkable thing is that rugby union has never been as popular in Australia as League and Aussie Rules. In short the Wallabies have always punched above their weight.

Despite having had a poor Tri-Nations this summer, they are still doing so, having already on this tour beaten England and drawn with Ireland. They were perhaps unlucky not to have won in Dublin last week, having been the better side for much of the game. So they will undoubtedly start favourites this afternoon.

Australia's record over the past quarter-century is indeed remarkable. In a sense they stand in the same relation to New Zealand and South Africa as we do to England and France. That's to say they have far fewer resources. The difference is that they have been able to make better use of such resources that they have than we have in recent years. They have of course had a succession of outstanding players such as we have lacked. Sometimes we may have been aggrieved to find so few Scots selected for the last three Lions tours, and no doubt some individuals have been unlucky not to have been picked, but in general we can't complain. The paucity of Scots in recent Lions squads reflects our level of achievement.

Australia, despite their disappointing Tri-Nations, still stand third in the IRB world rankings while, having beaten Fiji last week we may have moved up to ninth. That's quite a gap, and there is little reason to believe that we can close it this afternoon, even with home advantage. Still, it's not impossible.

If we are to win today we shall have to establish supremacy up front. In recent years Australia's scrum has not been very convincing, but they pushed the Irish about the field last week. On the other hand Ireland were much superior in the line-out. Our set scrum was good against Fiji and the line-out at least adequate, but then it is hard to know just how strong Fiji themselves were in the tight. Nevertheless it seems clear that to have any chance of victory we must dominate in the set-pieces and establish territorial advantage. I would hope that Chris Cusiter, Phil Godman and the back three are not shy of putting the ball into touch when kicking out of defence. Better to have the game restarted with a line-out than to engage in tedious kicking duels.

We have scored very few tries, except from close-range, against good opposition in the last few seasons, and frankly it would be a happy surprise if we were able to do so today. The Australian defence is usually well-organised. Ireland did score two tries against them, but at Twickenham the previous week England looked quite incapable of breaking the Australian line. Our own backs didn't often threaten against Fiji, and when they did so, support tended to arrive too slowly to secure quick ball. So, unless there is a marked improvement in this respect, our chances of scoring tries look slim. If there is to be a Scottish victory it is more likely to be gained by pressure and penalties than by flowing back play. It would be nice to be proved wrong in this judgement. Still, the best thing against Fiji was the general quality of our defence, and that at least is something to build on.

This Australian side may lack some of the star quality of recent years, but it still looks a pretty good one. A Scottish victory would rank as the finest achievement for years. Optimism always rises as the kick-off approaches, but should be tempered by the reflection that we have only recorded one win against any of the southern hemisphere Big Three since we last defeated Australia in 1982. We should perhaps have beaten South Africa a year ago, but the sad truth is that very few of the games against New Zealand, South Africa and Australia in the last quarter-century have even been close.

Players of the quality of the Hastings brothers, David Sole, John Jeffrey, Gary Armstrong and Craig Chalmers never figured in a victorious Scotland team against any of them. To be honest, one would have to say that a narrow defeat by less than ten points would be a considerable achievement, and might even indicate that better times lie ahead.

Too often, however, in matches against southern hemisphere opposition, we have played well enough for large parts of the game only to experience a disastrous quarter of an hour to 20 minutes. So an efficient 80-minute performance would be an improvement, no matter the result.