Allan Massie: Another autumn passes by with little shift in north-south divide

Published on Friday 3 December 2010 16:52

There is, sadly, little sign that the gap between the north and south is closing. That must be the conclusion after the autumn internationals.

New Zealand were unbeaten, and scarcely ever stretched. South Africa lost to Scotland and Australia to England. On the last weekend the All Blacks strolled to victory in Cardiff, where the final score of 37-25 flattered Wales, South Africa brought the England revival to a shuddering halt, and Australia, playing sublime rugby in the second- half, annihilated France, Six Nations champions and Grand Slam winners. If we try to persuade ourselves that the gap is not still very wide, we shall never close it. Sure, we in the north enjoy the occasional victory but "occasional" is the word. Remember: in these autumn games we enjoy home advantage, and almost always still lose.

We can, however, forget about the All Blacks, Springboks and Wallabies for a few months and concentrate on the Six Nations. The tournament will, as ever, be gripping and enjoyable. No matter if six nations produce rugby half the quality provided by half the number of teams in the Tri-Nations. So what pointers do the November games offer for the spring?

The champions are clearly in disarray. It looked as if Marc Lievremont after a couple of years of experiments was getting things right and putting together a side that would challenge for the coming World Cup. Now all is confusion and gloom. Perhaps the first sign that, despite results, all was not right came in the Grand Slam match itself. France beat England 12-10 but it was a timid performance short of enterprise. All the rugby came, amazingly, from England. Since then nothing has gone right, not least in selection.

Lievremont has fielded Traille, Jauzion and Rougerie at 10, 12, 13. They have all been great players, but all may be on the wrong side of the hill, and all seem to have lost a bit of speed. Then, at No 8, he preferred Chabal to Harinordoquy. Chabal excites the crowds, but it is Harinordoquy who makes things happen. Still, there are so many good players in France that with, for example, Trinh-Duc, Bastereaud, and Poitrenaud back, nobody should be surprised if they retain their title.

England have made progress. At times against New Zealand and Australia they looked good, playing with a purpose and sense of adventure long lacking. They have some splendid young players, notably Courtney Lawes in the second row (what odds on the 2013 Lions locks being Lawes and Richie Gray?). Their pack is as good as anyone's. They still have problems in the centre, but they have a pacey back three and excellent halves in Toby Flood and Ben Youngs. They play France at Twickenham, and this fact alone probably makes them favourites for the tournament.

Ireland have been the best of the Lions nations for some years, but, though they have some good young players there is a sense they are a team in decline. That said, Brian O'Driscoll and Tommy Bowe are capable of scoring tries against anyone. So Ireland can be on the back foot much of a match and still win. Much may depend on whether Declan Kidney persists with Sexton at 10 or recalls O'Gara.

Wales remain as enigmatic as the French. Their record in this calendar year is, on the face of it, appalling: played 12, won two, drawn one, lost nine. One of their victories came in that extraordinary game in Cardiff when Scotland suffered a succession of injuries and misfortunes, and had only 12 men on the field when Wales snatched the winning try in injury time. So their only convincing win was against Italy at Cardiff. On the other hand, six of their defeats came at the hands of the southern hemisphere trio. Both games against South Africa were close: 31-34 and 25-29.

Their backs are playing good-looking rugby, but mostly short of the gain-line. One has the suspicion that the sequence of defeats may be taking its toll. Confidence may be lacking, and in its absence there is often an inability to win close games. It's a state of mind that has been all too familiar to Scottish players of recent years. We were Italy's only victims last spring. It was by far our worst performance of the tournament. Italy have been flying under the radar this past month, but nothing in their results suggests they are ready to make the breakthrough and win two or three games. They will do so someday. The inclusion of two Italian sides in the Magners League is going to help.

If we could persuade ourselves the All Blacks match was only a bad dream, we could approach the Six Nations with high confidence. Yet even that disturbing memory shouldn't be allowed to weigh too heavily. The record since Rome of three away wins, two home ones and a home draw against England makes the annual surge of optimism more reasonable than usual. The pack is capable of being a match for any in the championship and that is the necessary starting point. Andy Robinson will surely retain Dan Parks at 10 to allow us to play in the right parts of the field. But we need more pace and imagination out wide. A back three of Chris Paterson, Max Evans and Nikki Walker might be the answer for Paris in February.

First, however, there are Heineken Cup matches to be played. Some will make a case for inclusion by their performances in these games. Others, alas, may fall away.