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55,000 reasons why Leinster have the edge over cup kings Toulouse

The Heineken Cup semi-finals are on back on the agenda next weekend and it is a measure of how far Leinster have progressed that the Dubliners will probably start as modest favourites despite going head to head with Europe's most successful-ever side. Leinster go into next Saturday's match determined to prevent the mighty Toulouse from bagging their fifth European title, a new record should it happen.

Joe Schmidt's men at least have the advantage of playing in front of a packed Aviva Stadium and, coming from Clermont Auvergne, the Kiwi coach also has a better understanding than most of how to beat this opposition. As back-up to Vern Cottar at Clermont, Schmidt enjoyed an enviable record against the French giants that reads: Played 8, Won 6, Lost 2, which are good stats against anyone, let alone Guy Noves' perennial champions.

"The thing with Toulouse is just the depth of quality" said Schmidt while looking ahead to next Saturday's encounter. "If they play (Cedric) Heymans at fullback and (Maxime) Medard and (Vincent) Clerc on the wings you're in trouble and if they put (Clement) Poitrenaud at full-back with the same wingers or move Heymans it's the same."

The veteran French Test winger Heymans is going in search of his own record fifth Heineken title after first winning Europe's big club competition way back in 1997 with Brive.

Since then Heymans has won three more Heineken Cups with Toulouse (2003, 2005, 2010) while also appearing on the losing side in two additional finals. It's an enviable record but it's one that Leinster are determined to undermine according to Schmidt, who admits to changing his tune after the last round when his side saw off the challenge from Leicester.

"At the quarters I'm thinking: 'Ah gee, I just hope we get past Leicester and whatever happens after that I can live with'," admitted Schmidt last week. "I can't live with that now! We've got to get to Cardiff. I think there's a real motivation in the team but, at the same time, you can be as motivated as you like. Against Toulouse you've got to be motivated, accurate and aggressive. And very complete on the day."

This semi-final is a repeat of last year's when Toulouse edged into the final 26-16 but there are a few key differences that give the Irish province hope of turning the tables. The match is played in Dublin in front of 55,000 fans, the majority of whom will be local, and, after missing last year's semi-final in Toulouse, key Leinster playmaker Jonathan Sexton will be in harness for next Saturday's match.The Irish fly-half is the leading back as ranked by the Amlin Opta Index in this year's Heineken Cup and just how he performs on the day will go a long way to determining the outcome.

A clinical 35-41 victory over Toulouse in the south of France back in April, 2006 infused this Leinster squad with the self belief required to kick on and win the tournament, albeit it took another three years for them to do that at Murrayfield.

It would be quite something for Schmidt to win the European Cup at the first time of asking, especially after such a rocky start as his side lost three of their opening four matches in the Magners League. Since then they have lost just four of their next 23 matches (before this weekend) in all competitions and they are exhibiting the same belief that helped them lift the trophy in 2009. If they can squeeze past Toulouse next weekend they will be firm favourites to add to that success in Cardiff.

Semi-finals

Leinster v Toulouse

Aviva Stadium, Dublin

Saturday, 30 April, 3:30pm

Northampton v Perpignan

stadium:mk, Milton Keynes

Sunday, May 1, 3pm


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