IN part two of our interview, Australia's king of spin says home side are relying on one man to reclaim the Ashes
JUST OVER a week ago filming finished in London for the PokerAshes, a poker tournament between Australian and English cricketers. As is customary an aftershow party was in full swing in a hotel bar in central London and the participants, TV crew, dir
ectors and friends were letting off steam with the help of a few late night sharpeners. There was frivolity, relief, exhaustion and in one corner where the cricketers huddled around a table, a serious discussion on cricket.
At its centre was Shane Warne. Those surrounding him were not exactly shrinking violets – Rob Key, Dean Jones, Damien Martyn, Darren Gough, Jeff Thomson and Min Patel – but Warne was dominant. Not in presence but in ideas. I have witnessed this once before during the 2006 Ashes in Australia when he and Glenn McGrath discussed captaincy and bowling in one-day cricket with Dimitri Mascherenas and Key. They were keen to share knowledge, explain their ideas and help their mates despite them being Poms.
The two English lads asked questions and I sat and enjoyed a tactical master class.
Warne's brain for cricket is exceptional and Ian Chappell was absolutely correct when he said Warne was the best captain Australia never had. Compare his innovation and intuition at Hampshire or Rajasthan Royals to Ricky Ponting's turgid leadership if you harbour any doubts.
So as he discoursed on the Ashes it was revealing that he believed England had a chance.
Such admissions are anathema to most red-blooded Aussies, but Warne has always been respectful about opponents. It never stopped him tearing into them on the pitch, but he appreciates their skills. Before 2005 he mused one evening about the damage Kevin Pietersen and Freddie Flintoff could do to the ageing Jason Gillespie and Michael Kasprowicz. Two months later he was proved correct.
This time it was those two protagonists that concerned him again.
"England cannot win the Ashes without Pietersen dominant as a batsman," he said. "The state of his injury is vital, but for England he is the man that can score towards 500 runs. Without high scoring then Australia will win the close battles so he needs big scores and he needs support as well. That is where I think England may struggle. Ravi Bopara has done nothing yet, I'm not sure about his temperament and to bat at three in an Ashes series takes a lot. Michael Vaughan did it in 2005 and he was captain, established, a major player in world cricket and had previously been very successful against Australia. That's the kind of person you want at first drop, especially if an early wicket falls. As for Freddie he can take a game away with his powerful hitting although I know his form hasn't been as good in recent years. He is still dangerous though and his bowling is 90mph, and always at you. Chat to the batsmen who face him and they never say they are comfortable. They all talk about how he gets into them, always aggressive at them. But for both injury is a concern. Freddie is coming back and the schedule could be gruelling on him, especially if as has happened in the past he bowls most of the overs and Pietersen has an Achilles that can take him out at any time."
These are valid points and are well acknowledged within the England dressing room, but what about the Australians? They are hardly tearing up trees in their preparations. Lacklustre against Sussex and apart from Michael Hussey, Marcus North and Brett Lee, poor against England Lions. It is not what is expected of the pugnacious visitors.
"They may have problems," admitted Warne, "but they have some very good players. I have always said that since the retirements of the older players there is a great opportunity for some new guys to make a name for themselves. I expect Mitchell Johnson and Peter Siddle to do that and to be the core of Ponting's seam attack. Siddle hits the wicket hard, charges in from first over to last and never gives the batsman anything. A hard worker that every captain would want. Johnson can swing it at 90mph, is supremely fit, a real athlete and in time may end up batting as high as seven. His century and 96 against South Africa were good innings with clean, straight hitting. Warm up games are important but not everything. Come Cardiff and Lord's we will see the real Aussies."
Will we see a spinner though? Since Warne's retirement Australia have struggled to find a competent spinner, let alone a magician like Warne himself. Nathan Hauritz was disappointing in Sussex but bowled a lot better than his figures suggested against the Lions.
"He is as good as Graeme Swann," countered Warne.
Really? The figures do not suggest that. Is this just one Aussie publicly supporting another?
It sounds it, but Warne is adamant.
"The first Test at Cardiff will spin and he just needs a good start there and the confidence will come. A key battle will be Clarke, Australia's best player of spin against Swann. If Clarke can get at Swann and knock him off his swagger then England have problems. Panesar is out of form and Rashid is young, although he can bat at eight and give England more depth."
It used to be that the start of an Ashes series was heralded by the Australian media and players predicting a 5-0 thrashing. Not any more. Both teams know they are evenly matched and like 2005 it could come down to a single session. What would have most pleased Ponting last week was the superb bowling of Brett Lee. Unlucky not to get wickets in his opening spell, he returned three hours later to deliver some of the finest 95 mph reverse swing since Flintoff and Simon Jones were in their pomp in 2005.
Should he do that in the Tests, England will struggle, but Flintoff and Jimmy Anderson are equally adept at the skill. If the good weather continues and the pitches are as flat as usual, reverse swing could decide the series.
But Lee was not the only old warrior to impress in Worcester. Steve Harmison bowled with menace and accurate aggression on a very slow pitch and exposed some glaring technical deficiencies in the new Aussie wunderkind, Phil Hughes. He hit him on the head, bounced him out in both innings and generally made the opener timid and fearful.
Indeed it may be enough, especially when he dismissed Ponting cheaply as well, to get the selectors choosing him for Wednesday.
It would be a bold move and against the natural conservatism of Geoff Miller and Andy Flower but a calculated one. Hughes certainly would rather Harmison missed out.
Whatever choices made by selectors and players it is important that this Ashes series erases the dreadful non-event of 2006-07. Sport thrives on competition and before a ball is bowled it is easy to argue for both sides emerging triumphant in late August.
"I'd put my money on Australia," laughed Warne, "but not be surprised if England won."
Warne sitting on the fence? "2-1 Australia then and a great series."
The time for opinion and conjecture is nearly over. Wednesday in Cardiff the phoney war ends and the cricket begins and if the track does turn as predicted England should be thankful Australia's best spinner is in Las Vegas trying to win the World Series of poker.
