THE picture in Group 9 looks more encouraging for Scotland after Wednesday night's results, and national manager George Burley now has a clearer understanding of what his squad must do to finish runners-up to the Netherlands.
What remains unclear is the points total they will require to avoid finishing worst of the nine group runners-up – a position which would mean failure to reach the 2010 World Cup.
Of the four matches played on Saturday and Wednesday, only the vic
tory for Macedonia against Iceland was undesirable from Scotland's point of view. A draw would have been better, as the Macedonians are now level on seven points, albeit having played a game more.
But the draw between Macedonia and Norway was ideal for Burley, as were the Netherlands' wins over Iceland and Norway. The Norwegians are now bottom of the group on three points, having played two games fewer than Iceland, who are on four points. The Netherlands are a mere 14 points ahead of Scotland and Macedonia, and are the only team in European to have so far qualified for the finals in South Africa.
It is now a fair bet that Scotland will come second if they beat Norway and Macedonia, and Burley is approaching both games as must-wins. "The teams fighting for second spot can all take points off each other," said Burley yesterday. "But we know what we have to do now. Going to Norway in August was always going to be crucial. With the Macedonia result (against Iceland] it means that we have to beat them when they come to Hampden in September."
Four days after the Macedonia game, the Dutch come to Glasgow. The worrying prospect for Burley is that his team could also need at least a point from that match to ensure they are among the top eight runners-up.
The complexity of the qualifying system, however, means that even with just minutes to play in their closing game, Scotland might still not know if they have done enough. Because every other group includes one team more than Group 9, the other runners-up will have their results against the bottom team excluded – but in some cases the identity of that bottom team will not be known until the last group match is over.
As things stand, Scotland are in a perilous position. Once the games between those teams who are currently second-placed and bottom are eliminated from the league tables, the Scots' points total of seven with a goal difference of minus two is better than only one other runner-up.
That is Croatia, who lie second behind England in Group 6. Discounting the Croatians' two wins over Andorra, they have five points from four games, and a goal difference of plus one.
In Group 3, Northern Ireland have a similar record to Scotland. They have seven points from five games. In Group 8, the Republic of Ireland also have seven points from five matches. In Group 2, Switzerland have the same points and goal difference, but have a game in hand.
Hungary, second-placed in Group 1, have seven points from four games and a goal difference of plus two. The other three second-placed teams, Russia,. Bosnia and France, all look to be too far ahead to worry about not making the play-offs.
One match Scots will have a keen interest in is England's game against Croatia at Wembley in September. Victory for the visitors could strengthen their grasp on one of the best runners-up positions. It could all come down to England doing Scotland a favour to give Burley's team a chance of reaching the finals.
On the other hand, a Croatian defeat could leave the way open for Ukraine to overtake them. The two countries are level on 11 points, but Ukraine have two games against Andorra to come as well as a home tie against England and a trip to Belarus. Besides their visit to London, the Croatians play Belarus home and away and also visit Kazakhstan.
