Analysis: Alex Salmond has yet to make a convincing case

By John Curtice
Published on Sunday 30 October 2011 00:00

JUST before the SNP conference this month, Alex Salmond trumpeted the results of a ComRes poll that reported that 49 per cent of people in Scotland were now in favour of independence, while only 37 per cent were against.

Moreover, this came after a TNS-BMRB poll conducted at the end of August, which stated that independence was now narrowly ahead in the referendum vote.

It was little wonder the SNP felt it could claim that, following its stupendous election victory in May, the pro-independence tide was now finally flowing in.

Alas, what Salmond did not point out was that the ComRes poll was a Britain-wide survey that only interviewed 146 people north of the border. Or that the TBS-BMRB poll has consistently found much higher support for independence than most other polls, and that its 39 per cent pro-independence reading was no higher than it had uncovered on more than one occasion before.

Now today’s YouGov poll puts support for independence at just 34 per cent. That is towards the high end of the range within which the figure has oscillated in the same poll before, but is still no higher than was recorded on more than one occasion in the run up to May’s election.

Moreover, the finding echoes that of two other recent polls that reported considerable anti-independence majorities. It seems that the independence bandwagon still has to generate much momentum after all.

There is one section of the Scottish public above all that the SNP still has to persuade – women. Like those of many other companies, YouGov’s polls have persistently found that women are relatively reluctant to back independence. Our latest poll suggests the gender gap is now very large indeed – just 27 per cent of women say they would vote for independence, compared with 41 per cent of men.

Equally, Salmond still has to win over many middle-class voters, a group perhaps for whom fears about what independence might mean for Scotland’s economy are particularly salient.

Only 31 per cent of middle-class voters back independence, compared with 36 per cent of the working-class electorate – a gap that echoes that found in many previous YouGov polls.

John Curtice is Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University

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37

Kon

Sunday, November 13, 2011 at 08:16 AM

"what Salmond did not point out was that the ComRes poll was a Britain-wide survey that only interviewed 146 people north of the border" ... http://i.imgur.com/BZYME.jpg

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36

Kon

Sunday, November 13, 2011 at 08:13 AM

33 Scotindy, Scotland has no military, idiot.

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35

Cuntryman

Monday, October 31, 2011 at 09:04 AM

#34, Clearly not, I was asked twice!

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34

Christian Wright

Monday, October 31, 2011 at 07:19 AM

Professor Curtice, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it well established that YouGov's sampling methods have consistently under represented the nationalist vote in Scotland by a significant margin?

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33

Scotindy

Monday, October 31, 2011 at 04:30 AM

Scotland is at the door of INDEPENDENCE and those who wish to detere My countries aspirations for Independence should be very aware of SCOTLANDS military might and experience.

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32

Goodbye London Labour

Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 08:50 PM

The biased UK media-especially the "Scottish" media-will try every dirty trick in the book to stop the inevitable surge towards Independence. Wasn't Curtis once a Liberal candidate? This poison-filled, rotting union is about to end-get used to the idea. INDEPENDENCE IS ON THE HORIZON.

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31

The Genuine Mario Antionette

Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 07:53 PM

#10 - I don't have any credibility to lose. I'm a Scot & Salmond has removed our credibility in the eyes of the world. The tartan clad jackboots of the SNP can be heard stomping all over Scotland. The claymore wielding savage days of Culloden are over - they are in the past & in the past these days must remain. We are a civilised nation now, living in peace & harmony with each other.

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30

jock in the box

Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 07:49 PM

18 I find it inconceivable that we would surpass the dirty tricks which this dicredited Union has already indulged in! The suppression of the McCrone Report will take a lot of beating , being as it has been a betrayal of every man woman and child in Scotland every day and over four decades

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29

TheIndependentHenBroon

Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 03:50 PM

Comment removed by moderator

28

TheIndependentHenBroon

Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 03:48 PM

Comment removed by moderator

27

radar

Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 03:17 PM

But the link isn't posting properly. Its http:slashslashimg254.imageshack.usslashimg254slash2640slashscotspolldata301011.jpg

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26

radar

Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 03:16 PM

My mistake. Still there. ============= http:img254.imageshack.usimg2542640scotspolldata301011.jpg

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25

radar

Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 02:32 PM

re. 16 ===========Grahics charts now deleted. I wonder why, and by whom ? The You Gov trend (on westminster voting intentions) covering 2011 showed the red line heading south, and getting steeper since May. The yellow is heading north, and overtook red sometime in August.

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24

Kobi

Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 02:20 PM

#23 "#21 The answer is neither you nor I know. " Wrong. You might not know, but I saw the questions asked.

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23

E&I

Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 02:15 PM

#21 The answer is neither you nor I know. We all know the famous scene from "Yes Minister" where Sir Humphrey asks some questions to extract one final answer to a poll and another set of questions to get the opposite final answer for the same poll. I wouldn't believe a thing this newspaper says about polls. Look at how wrong its polls got the last Scottish elections.

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