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36 billion barrels gone but enough left for another 30 years

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Published Date: 31 October 2007
THE helicopter drops through white clouds to reveal the dark blue of the North Sea and the white flick of cresting waves. In the distance is Alwyn North, two steel platforms linked by a walkway, resembling chained fists punching up from the deep.
Welcome to the most expensive real estate in Britain: here in the North Sea, it's all about location, location, location.

They do not come much more remote than Alwyn North. To get here, visitors must fly 270 miles north-east out of Aberdeen, sea
led inside rubber survival suits, with the knowledge that even the Shetland Islands are a distant 100 miles back.

Total E&P UK, a subsidiary of the French oil giant, spent £1.5 billion developing Alwyn North and its neighbouring platforms, which began oil production in 1987 and are still pumping out 150,000 barrels of oil or gas equivalent each day.

The public daily consumes the products of the oil and gas industry, while remaining largely ignorant of its achievements.

In the 1960s, Britain was sliding down the economic table. The discovery of North Sea oil in 1969 stopped that slide and pushed Britain back to the top. Yet the history of North Sea oil is littered with erroneous estimates of when this "black gold" would run dry. The wells would be dry in a decade, government ministers thought in the 1970s; in the early 1980s, the concern was it would run out by 2000.

Today, 38 years after the first core samples were confirmed, the oil industry is drawing up plans for the next 30 years.

According to Oil & Gas UK, 36 billion barrels of oil and gas equivalent have been extracted, but 25 billion barrels remain; it's just that these will be more difficult and costly to remove.

"We've eaten just over half the cake," Jenny Costelloe, of Total, said. "It's just that the remainder of the cake is now on the top shelf and more difficult to reach."

As oil prices recently hit a new high of over $90 a barrel, the cake remains exceedingly rich: in 2006, deposits worth £32.8 billion were extracted, earning the Treasury £9 billion.

Yet the absence of the thick, easy slices means the landscape in the North Sea is set to change. Big multinational groups such as BP and Shell are in the process of winding down their interests, unable, or unwilling, to justify to their shareholders the increasing expense of extraction when easier pickings are available in Nigeria and South America. Overall investment in the North Sea has fallen from £5.6 billion in 2006 to £4 billion this year.

Jake Malloy, chairman of the Offshore Industry Liaison Committee, said: "What is clear is that there is the potential for a long-haul future for the industry, at least for the next 30 years. This is dependent on the platforms and pipelines being kept in sound operating conditions so that the smaller players can take over the operation. But if you allow them to fall into disrepair, as Shell and BP have been doing, then the curtain will fall on the North Sea."



Page 1 of 1

 
1

Comerscroft,

31/10/2007 03:15:20

And after 30 years, what then???

2

Guga II,

Rockall 31/10/2007 03:51:22

#1 Then the English will be quite happy to give us our independence as there will be no more oil money to steal.

3

Nelbert,

31/10/2007 05:04:27

The world uses 1 billion barrels of oil every 12 days - 25 billion barrels is not really that much.

4

Speaking Jockenese,

Beijing 31/10/2007 05:24:15

#3
It is around $75 billion a year at current oil prices. Which will no doubt rise higher than inflation with the Bush-mongerer making sure the middle east will be happily at war with each other, probably, for the next millennium.

He's making sure his oil buddies in Halliburton will be happy when he retires from the white house.

Only a small proportion of oil is produced outside the OPEC but, still, someone will happily take Scotland's any day.

5

Gandalf the Great,

Slayer of Orcs 31/10/2007 05:44:16

Hey number 3, I stubbed my toe this morning, can I blame President Bush?

6

Alan Reid,

Angola 31/10/2007 05:56:13

And so after 30 years, what has Scotland to show for it?

7

Alan Reid,

Angola 31/10/2007 06:37:38

Oh well, 30 more years then England will dump us.

8

Samcafe,

31/10/2007 07:12:10

Comerscroft / 3:15am 31 Oct 2007 And after 30 years, what then???

That gives us 30 years to put in place decent education and infrastructure, to ensure we have a modern and capable workforce, in fact to invest in our country and our future rather than keeping 4 million people unemployed as a certain someone did.

9

Cartmen,

Dubai 31/10/2007 07:22:26

There’s still plenty of oil out there , 30 years might be a pretty conservative estimate but Samcafe is correct . We must invest and diversify , Norway is a very good example of how to invest and spend money but not very clever at investing or attracting other industries.

10

Boy Wonder,

31/10/2007 07:32:01

"We've eaten just over half the cake," Jenny Costelloe, of Total, said. "It's just that the remainder of the cake is now on the top shelf and more difficult to reach."

It's Scotland's cake!!

11

Hamish MacBeth,

Angola 31/10/2007 07:34:24

AM2, but he's right.

12

Scott_B,

31/10/2007 07:58:11

"Enough left for thirty years" means nothing. Oil does not continue to come out the ground at a steady pace and suddenly stop - it reaches a peak, and then declines. The North Sea reached peak production in 1999, has declined quite rapidly since, and will continue to do so.

If production continues for 30 years, and we lose 2-5% output per year, in thirty years time output will be between one fifth and half of today's extraction.

As a report, it's very misleading of the Scotsman to stress "enough for thirty years". There MAY be oil for thirty years, but there certainly is in no way "enough"

13

Pinelands,

CAPE TOWN 31/10/2007 09:07:54

7#am2

You are quite right Idont think a post goe's by that this I'm not a racist guga2# shows his hatred of the English.

Its impossible to have any conversation with this person.

But he thinks you can, he's never off any post boards

He must scan it from the moment the paper is published to put his very uninteresting views to everyone.

No doubt with this technolgy its given him the opportunity to give his racism an airing

he's laughable.

2

14

Very Rev Ian Paisley,

31/10/2007 09:38:30

If Saudi Arabia has 295 Billion of barrles left and 36 billion have been taken from the North Sea, with just over 'half the cake eaten', does that mean we have the equivalent of roughly 12% of the Saudi reserves?

Givent that the North East of Scotland has the most advanced oil services sector on the planet, and will continue to drive technological advances not only here but elsewhere, I am sure the technology will soon become available to extravt from this shelf.

Wait a minute, Petrobras are drilling beyond 3 miles now - JV anyone??????

15

Mr Mud,

Gullfaks C platform 140mls nw Bergen 31/10/2007 09:50:23

I agree with Hamish Macbeth. Independence will come when it is financially expedient for our friends in the south.
At least the Norwegians spend some money on maintaining their offshore kit - over here money is actually spent on safety, not just lip service paid. I eternally thank him upstairs I have only ever worked a few days in the UK sector, the rest of my offshore career has been in Norway.

16

sweet76,

South of the Border 31/10/2007 10:22:59

Why would Engalnd want to drop Scotland if the oil vanished when we stood with Scotland when no one knew the oil existed?

I'll be the first to admit though, that the money has been wasted proping up the pound because of past Government incompetance and hand outs for people who show no signs of wanting to work.

17

antifa,

Ed 31/10/2007 10:24:27

"Then the English will be quite happy to give us our independence as there will be no more oil money to steal."

I think they're already happy to give you your independence, aren't they? All you have to do is vote for it. You're pushing at an open door as far as most English people are concerned.

If you want to win people over to the independence argument then step into the real world for a bit. Stop pretending - to yourself and others - that Scotland is a rich colony being plundered by "the English" against its will.

If Scotland wants independence then she will get it, as you well know.

18

Boab,

Glasgow 31/10/2007 11:10:09

#20 Wini: One day you wake up and file a huge pile of money in your back garden. There is no fence between your garden and your neighbour's but it's clearly next to your house and pretty far from his.

Your neighbour happens to also be your cousin and you bought your houses at the same time in order to share the mortgage costs. This worked out for a few years but ever since this morning when you found the money, he's bought a BMW while you've lost your job.

Sometimes when he's in a good mood he gives you some of your pile of money to spend, but after all, he has to look after his own kids. And you ought to get a job rather than just mooching around broke all the time.

So, what do you do?

19

Guga II,

Rockall 31/10/2007 11:13:14

#19 AM Squared.

I see you've got your little database in operation again, so that you can quote, misquote, or quote out of context, everything anyone has said. Very handy working for the Hootsmon, isn't it?

If you have another wee birl through your database, you will see that the greater majority of posters consider that it is you, with your peculiar unionist/loyalist views, that is an outdated irrelevance.

For your benefit, I will recast my statement made at #2, as follows:

#1 Then the English government and all the colonial minded, totalitarian unionists (and loyalists), as well as the self-loathing Scots, will be quite happy to give us our independence as there will be no more oil money to steal.

As for prats like #14, since when was it racist to object to your country being run as a colony by a bunch of foreigners who are out to strip your country of its resources? Why don't you concern yourself with all the racism going on in your own country, and let us look after ourselves? We have enough foreign interference to be going on with.

#20 Get real.

20

Hagar,

Somersate 31/10/2007 14:04:55

#20 - Still grinding your rascist axe I see you nasty little git.
You get real. You have never been oppressed. As Antifa #18 says - You've had the democratic right to vote for independence throughout your lifetime. Yes I remember sitting on my mum's knee with her telling me "whatever you do son, remember to oppress the Scots especially that Guga character!"

"English Govt.??" Have you seen the makeup of the present cabinet? Are you having a laugh? If only, but hopefully soon.

Drop all this faux indignation Guga, most of us south of the border support the idea of an independent Scotland because of the democratic deficit imposed on us through devolution. Please note it's about democracy, we don't give a rats arse about the oil. We see you guys doing alright with the SNP govt. doing a worthy job. And Alex Salmond seems to be that rare breed - an honourable politician. How do I vote for him to be Great Briton of the year? Slightly ironic I know, but more power to his elbow!

21

Hagar,

Somersate 31/10/2007 14:09:33

Sorry Wini # 20 that was aimed at Guga #22!

22

kimba,

31/10/2007 14:20:21

Guga, you are a racist and quite frankly i'm sick of your anti English bile, England payed Scotlands debts in 1707 to the tune of 350,000 pound a great deal of money then, so we are not about to dump you now. but the act of union article 6 states "That all parts of the uk for ever, from and after the union, should have the same allowances" now it seems England is being shafted, but not for much longer, the worm is about to turn!

23

Guga II,

Rockall 31/10/2007 15:04:18

#25 You did not pay our debts so much as bribe some traitors into allowing you to take over our country. As for the TREATY OF UNION, the English have broken it a few times, including taking away the Scottish mint. Strangely enough, your claim to hanging on to Gibraltar is on the basis that you have never broken the Treaty of Utrecht.

Also, why am I racist? Just because I object to my country being kept as a colony by a bunch of foreigners? That is not racism, that is a desire for independence.

I'm so non-racist that I'm even prepared to accept your lot staying in that part of southern Scotland called England. If I was racist, I'd be wanting to deport you all home to Germany.

24

Guga II,

Rockall 31/10/2007 15:06:32

#23 If anyone is a nasty little git, it is yourself. It wasn't your mother that came out with these sentiments, it all came from your own single cell brain.

25

Hagar,

Somersaete 31/10/2007 15:21:21

Do you know what irony is Guga? I guess not. You sir are a fool. And you are a rascist one at that.
Back to Germany? Are you going back to Ireland then?
Moron!

26

Evans,

31/10/2007 15:31:18

Sometimes I despair of some people when reading these comments. So much of the Scottish nationalist movement is made up seemingly smug, parochial, petty-minded ultra-nationalists. Can't we just be patriotic and proud of our countries without excluding others as being 'foreign'. What is foreign anyway? Practically every native UK resident speaks the same language, wears the same clothes, eats the same food. Why put up barriers that don't exist? As for the oil, let's not be so holier-than-thou about this. Scotland's done its fair share of exploiting other nation's resources in the past!

27

Guga II,

Rockall 31/10/2007 15:35:21

#29 A foreigner is a person from another country. Just because we happen to know their language means nothing. Even the Americans, and many other foreigners, speak their language, eat similar food and wear similar clothes.

The barriers will remain until such time as we regain our independence.

28

kimba,

31/10/2007 15:40:55

Guga. Sorry to burst your bubble, but in 1707 Scotland were in sh-t,without the English you would be no more,say what you like, the world knows the truth.England saved your bacon,End of story.

29

Guga II,

Rockall 31/10/2007 15:43:51

#31. You lot got us in the sh1t, then bribed a bunch of traitors to sell out their own people. You must be really proud of your country's behaviour.

We managed fine before you came along, and we'll manage fine after you finally go.

30

kimba,

31/10/2007 15:50:58

Guga,are you a complete idiot,or just a complete racist, either way I don't care, but until westminster says different your still part of britain. Hey ho!

31

kimba,

31/10/2007 15:52:39

Oh guga, if we "go" we want our 350,000 back with interest!

32

Guga II,

Rockall 31/10/2007 15:57:46

#34 You can deduct it from the multi-millions of our oil money that you've stolen; then you can pay us back the balance.

As for still being part of the YUK, yes, we are still a colony. However, I am not British, I never have been, and I never will be.

33

kimba,

31/10/2007 16:04:31

Guga, ah the oil,well oil revanue is 5 billion per year to the treasury,westminster pays Scotland 26 billion per year, the figures speak for themselves!

34

kimba,

31/10/2007 16:06:54

Guga,wonder how much that interest would be,300 years, wow.

35

,

31/10/2007 16:10:54
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason: Scotsman Import, Original comment id: 1103077, Article id was mapped to record!
36

,

31/10/2007 16:17:33
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason: Scotsman Import, Original comment id: 1103106, Article id was mapped to record!
37

Hagar,

Somersaete 31/10/2007 16:19:03

#38 - Another worthwhile contribution from the rabid then!

38

antifa,

Ed 31/10/2007 17:11:34

Guga - you are delusional. Scotland is not a colony. It can get independence anytime it wants. The two most powerful men in the UK government are Scots. Scotland has its own government which is doing a great job of putting Scotland first.

I support the SNP and independence but I feel nothing in common with you. You are the Scottish equivalent of the English bigots you get on the Telegraph threads (which, by the way, are the best advert for independence in existence).

39

sonofhamish,

edinburgh 31/10/2007 17:25:45

Well said, Scottish and English bigots are cut from the same cloth, they exist in Wales too. Narrow minded idiots who do their communities a great disservice.

I wonder if maybe one of your parents were English Guga? Is that the real problem here? Self-hatred?

40

Richardinho,

31/10/2007 17:56:25

note to Scotsman editor; Article should read; 'Oil about to run out, Oil prices about to tumble, can't be reliant on oil alone etc etc..'

41

Meths,

31/10/2007 18:19:49

20. Wini, Scots in England / 10:49am 31 Oct 2007

"Scotland is not independent, it is part of the UK. Thus the oil belongs to the UK as a whole. It is UK oil."

It's SCOTLAND'S Cornish tin mines.

42

Meths,

31/10/2007 18:22:45

25. kimba / 2:20pm 31 Oct 2007

"Guga, you are a racist and quite frankly i'm sick of your anti English bile.

Don't make me laugh kimba. I suggest all posters have a wee search to read the anti Scottish garbage that spews from her fingertips. (Mock horror from kimba).

43

kimba,

31/10/2007 18:28:23

35. i have just passed my driving test and on the licence as well as my passport it states that i am british not english or socttish but BRITISH, i'm guess that if you have these items yours will state the same, so wether you like it or not you are BRITISH

44

kimba,

31/10/2007 18:31:04

Meths. why don't you stay in your spanish harlem and shut up!

45

Meths,

31/10/2007 18:36:21

Kimba posts

1 "us scots are a fickle bunch" (But she's not Scottish)

2 "What do you call a scotsman with a brain? LUCKY!"

...and she gasps in horror at Guga?

46

Meths,

31/10/2007 18:41:20

48. kimba / 6:31pm 31 Oct 2007

"Meths. why don't you stay in your spanish harlem and shut up!"

Harlem is in New York. Harlem Globetrotters?
I'm in Spain. Spain is not in New York.

You heard a song once and though that Harlem was in Spain. Har de har har.

47

Klempner,

Scotland 31/10/2007 19:05:07

Guga is 100% spot on,Keep up the good work.As for Wini......nuff said.

48

kimba,

31/10/2007 19:46:13

meths. why did you leave Scotland, you love it so much and yet you cut and ran, talk about a hypocrit!

49

kimba,

31/10/2007 19:49:12

49,meths. But my dad is,so i'm half Scottish,troll!

50

kimba,

31/10/2007 19:57:55

meths. people don't have to search I'll say it again {are you ready meths} some Scots i e. The Tartan Taliban, are racist,undemocratic, but most of all bloody stupid to be drawn in by Alex Salmond and his band of renigades,if they really think Salmond will make life any easier for them they are blinkered baffoons!

51

Meths,

31/10/2007 22:16:43

kimba all posts.

Leave Scotland to live where again? Spanish Harlem ...in Spain? Any more geography tit-bits? I'm now bored with you. You are uneducated and a tad dull.
Bye now.

xxx

52

Neanderthal75,

Rocky Mountains USA 31/10/2007 23:39:27

Hello All,

Once again the Chicken Littles are scurrying hither and yon, crying that the Sky is going to fall-yet again for the trillionth time (and that's just within the last 40 years).

I remember the Chicken Littles scurrying around during the late 60's, screaming to all and sundry, that not only was the world going to come to an end in about 40 years (we humans were going to pollute ourselves into extinction during that time period), but that by the end of the first decade of the next century (that would be about now folks), the entire planet's OIL RESOURCES would have been USED UP.

Let me see, I drove to town last weekend, and I drove my Safari AWD van, and there was an internal combustion engine powering the van.

I got the engine to run on petrol I bought at a gas station (when I filled up my tank for $2.88 cents a gallon (4 litres to a gallon).

I should add that as I drove the 44 miles into town, I didn't see even a single oncoming Glacier attempting to destroy all human habitation and topography.

The reason I mention the lack of glaciers in my area, is that the Chicken Littles were also claiming that the start of a new Ice Age was going to come upon us during the first half of the 21st century.

C'mon People!!! Wake up and note the Crazies all around us, proclaiming Doom and Gloom, as result of human actions!

First it was Ice Ages, Oil deposits gone by 2010, 10-12 BILLION people on the planet by now, etc., etc., etc.

We have NO IDEA of what kind of Oil Deposits exist on our planet.

What we do know of oil deposits come ONLY from existing oil fields and PROJECTIONS of EXISTING TECHNOLOGY in extracting the oil.

Oil Fields such as ANWR (Alaskan Wildlife Refuge) are ESTIMATED to have 'x' amount of oil reserves, however, since oil drilling is NOT allowed, any actual real world numbers for PROJECTED barrels for extraction are NOT available.

The bottom line people is that the Chicken Little

53

truthsleuth,

South of the Border 01/11/2007 01:13:38

As a Scot living South ofthe Border I find some of the comments above more relevant to a Scots Nat uncle of mine (now deceased) and do not show Scotland and the Scots in a very good light.

As I remember my history and I always remind my English friends that a rag tag army of Scots got down as far as Derby and beat the English army with claymores and kilts(got to watch it here).

Trouble is the more informed English then remind me that on each occasion we (Scots) have fought the English tribal and monetary squabbles coupled to 'treason' has resulted in each following defeat.As for oil whether it is running out or not it is the piper (unfortunately not the bag piper) who calls the tune.

The control of oil/gas reserves will be outside Western influence. The growth of China India and Russia will shift the balance of economic, population and military control Eastwards.
The USA has 'debts' of $43 trillion dollars with the Chinese alone. It has possibly two decades if that of supremacy and lets be clear Europe EC or not does not come into the reckoning.
So oil based economy is a dangerous way to the future especially in countries where purchasing power is likely to reduce.
The UK falls into this group - bio fuels simply replace increae in fuel prices with increase in food prices.
Hydrogen cells have been 10 years aeway for the last 20 at least and require electricity to fuel them.

So with this scenario and rapid climate change we have to reduce our dependacy on the car/lorry/plane or face the consequences.

54

kimba,

01/11/2007 10:39:52

57,meths. I've had more education than you have in your little finger, and I guess your bordom comes out of defeat!


 

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