ALEX SALMOND has declared today's by-election in Glasgow East a trial of strength between his government and Gordon Brown's. It's a brave comment for the First Minister to make with polls and pundits predicting Labour is likely to hold on to the seat, albeit by a wafer-thin majority.
The contest has been seen from the start as a major test for Mr Brown as he fends off criticism of his premiership and seeks to convince voters he is the man best placed to lead the UK through these troubled economic times.
Labour's by-election c
ampaign in Glasgow East has been fraught with difficulties and embarrassments but as the moment of truth nears, the result will show whether the electorate is behind Brown's Westminster Government or Alex Salmond's Holyrood oneBut Mr Salmond, who has taken a leading role in the SNP's campaign in Glasgow East, has raised the stakes by explicitly putting his own reputation on the line.
"Voters will be passing judgement on Labour at Westminster and the SNP Government here," he said. "If we win, we'll take it as a substantial endorsement of our candidate, our campaign and the Scottish Government."
The corollary of that comment is that if Labour manage to hang on, it represents an endorsement of Mr Brown and calls into question the level of public support for the SNP Government.
The by-election, caused by the resignation on health grounds of long- serving Labour MP David Marshall, has been almost the sole focus of attention for all political parties in Scotland for the past three weeks. Hundreds of SNP and Labour activists from all over the country have poured in to do battle in a constituency with one of the lowest life expectancies in the country and where 30 per cent of people are on Jobseekers Allowance or Incapacity Benefit.
The SNP needs a 22 per cent swing to overturn Labour's 13,507 majority from the 2005 General Election. Two opinion polls conducted in the constituency during the campaign have given Labour a clear lead, but both parties agree the race is much closer.
The most recent survey found that 29 per cent of voters had still to make up their mind. And internal SNP polling was said to be showing Labour only four points ahead, while Labour's predicted just a three-figure majority. The Tories and Liberal Democrats are fighting it out for third place.
Labour's campaign got off to the worst possible start when the favoured candidate failed to turn up for the selection meeting and then pulled out. The party then selected Margaret Curran. She is a feisty campaigner and already represents much of the area in the Scottish Parliament. Voters might question how she is going to represent them simultaneously at both Holyrood and Westminster. But the SNP had to leave it to the Lib Dems and Tories to make that point since Alex Salmond also has a seat in both parliaments.
Despite the importance of the by- election and Ms Curran's long experience, her campaign has been surprisingly gaffe-prone. Aides said it was a "slip of the tongue" when she claimed to have "lived in the East End all my life" whereas her home is in Glasgow's more affluent south side.
The party attracted some big name support when Taggart star John Michie hit the campaign trail with Ms Curran, but it later emerged he had made a video just over a year ago in which he called for Scottish independence.
Ms Curran's campaign theme is "standing up for the East End of Glasgow". But she has inevitably been challenged about why the area still finds itself in such a plight after 11 years of Labour government at Westminster and eight years of Labour in power at Holyrood.
Whatever the result tonight, Ms Curran's willingness to take on a tough campaign will have done her reputation within the party no harm.
The SNP's John Mason has been a councillor for part of the constituency for the past ten years and describes himself as the "only truly local candidate".
When he and Mr Salmond visited the constituency's biggest bingo hall, there was a cheer for the First Minister but an even bigger one for Mr Mason. "He is well-known and respected in the area he represents," says an SNP insider.
Mr Mason comes across as genuine and straightforward in debate and has made a good job of arguing the SNP's case. But Labour has sought to paint him as a "hardline Nationalist" whose one and only priority is independence.
He has also been quizzed over internal party squabbles, including a long- running row with one-time SNP MSP Dorothy Grace Elder.
But the SNP campaign has included some eye-catching photo opportunities, not least Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and Mr Mason having a kickabout with members of Calton Athletic football club, which supports people with alcohol and drug addiction.
The most noticeable feature of the SNP campaign, however, has been the regular presence of Mr Salmond, who has been talking up his party's chances from day one, when he predicted a political "earthquake".
Opposition politicians say the First Minister's constant appearances suggest he believes the SNP cannot win anything without him being at the centre of it.
It could be he is proved right and the Nationalists do snatch the seat from Labour. His strategy seems to be that if you repeat the confident message of victory often enough, it will all come true. But if that does not work, he will have some explaining to do tomorrow.
The full article contains 943 words and appears in Edinburgh Evening News newspaper.
