Wish they were here: big fall in tourists coming to Scotland

Published on Thursday 27 January 2011 18:11

SCOTLAND's tourism industry collapsed during what should have been its busiest period last year, new figures have revealed.

The industry suffered a 13 per cent slump in overnight visitors - from 5.3 million to 4.6m between July and September, compared with the same period in 2009.

Although the number of foreign visitors was only marginally down, by 0.9 per cent, domestic visitors, including the key English market, plummeted by 15.5 per cent - a drop of 678,000.

The overall number of visitors to Scotland - from both around the UK and overseas - was down 5 per cent for the first nine months of the year, compared with a 3.9 per cent rise for the first nine months of 2009.

The Scottish Government last night admitted the figures might have been affected by a drop-off from the impact of its Year of Homecoming campaign in 2009.

Tourism experts said the fall in domestic visitors was due to families tightening their belts in the face of spending cuts.

A further slump is expected for the final quarter because of the severe weather that affected large parts of Scotland from the end of November until after Christmas, when rail, air and road links were badly disrupted.

BAA has already reported an 18.4 per cent slump in passengers using Edinburgh airport, Scotland's busiest, while Glasgow was down 15.3 per cent and Aberdeen 7.4 per cent.

There are warnings of further problems for the industry this year because of pessimistic predictions on the economy, and the recent rise in VAT and the cost of fuel.

There is concern over the drop in overseas visitors to Scotland, as the 7 per cent fall for the first nine months of 2010 compares with a 2 per cent average drop across the UK over the same period. The number of overseas visitors to Scotland fell by 0.9 per cent over the summer, against a UK-wide drop of 1 per cent.

However despite the dip in numbers, spending from overseas visitors rose by 12.4 per cent during the July-September period and was up 10.3 per cent for the first nine months of the year.

VisitScotland also pointed out the overall drop of 5 per cent was only slightly higher than the English average of 4.58 per cent. And it said there was a 6.4 per cent increase in Scots taking a "staycation" last year.

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VisitScotland, which has had its budget for the next year slashed by 6 per cent by the Scottish Government, said "huge uncertainty" in the UK economy was to blame for the drop in domestic visitors.

It insisted 5 million of new campaigns targeting UK visitors had generated 150m for the economy, some 50m more than expected.

VisitScotland claims tourism is now the nation's most lucrative industry, after research last year valued it at about 11 billion - more than twice previous official estimates.

It is believed to support 270,000 jobs.

Professor John Lennon, head of the tourism unit at Glasgow Caledonian University, said although it was "not all doom and gloom", there were clear signs of people in the UK cutting back on holidays.

"These figures are largely what I would have anticipated, although we will obviously still have to wait and see what the impact was from the bad weather in December," he said.

"People in the UK are obviously very nervous about their jobs and savings at the moment. That clearly explains why domestic tourism was down over the summer. This has always been a country where people have taken three or four holidays each year, but there is no doubt people are cutting back, even if it just short breaks that they are no longer taking.

"The government has not exactly been sending out notes of optimism about the economy and that kind of thing does have an impact."

Willie Macleod, a director of the Scottish Tourism Forum, the main industry lobby group, said: "The general view from businesses is that 2010 was no better really than 2009 and in many cases a fair bit worse. Most people seem to have suffered a bit last year and a 5 per cent drop in visitors across the board shows it was not a great year."I think the economic situation in the UK has a lot to do with it. It's affecting consumer confidence, people are obviously being a lot more canny with their money when it comes to holidays, and it's had a big impact on things like business travel and conferences.

"There are already a number of worrying factors looking ahead to this year, including the impact of the VAT increase, increasing inflation and fuel price rises, as well as the prospect of job losses in the public sector."

Tourism minister Jim Mather said VisitScotland would focus its efforts on trying to boost the "staycation" market and high-profile campaigns such as those to promote its food and drink, and outdoor sports and activities.

He said: "There is no doubt that Scotland and our tourism industry have faced some tough challenges over the last year.

"It is also important to remember these figures come a year after the Year of Homecoming helped spark a substantial rise in visitor numbers.

"In addition, international tourists spent 10 per cent more while visiting Scotland in first nine of months 2010 than they did in the same period in 2009. That is a positive that should not be overlooked."