Will Ireland's voters bite hand that feeds them?

Published on Thursday 12 June 2008 22:04

From Dustin the Turkey to political distrust, the Irish have found many reasons to vote No, writes Gerri Peev

THERE should never have been any question over Ireland's support for the new EU Treaty. Ireland is , after all, the nation that has soaked up 16bn in grants since it joined the EEC in 1973, embracing its continental cousins and eschewing Britain's contempt for all things European as it grew its economy at more than twice the regional average for more than a decade.

But a last-minute surge in support for the campaign to reject the treaty means new Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen could be forced to explain a hollow victory, or even an outright defeat when the result is announced this afternoon.

It is extraordinary enough that Ireland's three million registered voters should hold the key to the future of 500 million European citizens.

In the event of a loss, Mr Cowen has to square up to the European Council and explain how he failed to convince his voters to back the EU, which has paved the way for Ireland's economic boom.

Strategists do not know how they will explain a loss: for there is no single issue on which the No lobby has pounced.

One of the more serious fears of the No lobby is that somehow the treaty would threaten Ireland's competitive corporation tax, which has attracted giants like Google to Dublin.

The treaty contains a provision allowing the European Council, if it secured the support of all member nations, to change the rules in favour of majority voting. Ireland does not want to give up the right to veto any threat to its favourable taxation regime.

Another, less rational fear, is that a clause on EU medical research would somehow legalise abortion in the staunchly Catholic country.

Then there is the case of Eurovision: The Irish entrant of Dustin the Turkey did not get to the final. Supporters retaliated by organising a campaign on social networking sites, insisting: "Europe didn't vote for Dustin so vote No to Lisbon." The No lobby has also benefited from far-fetched conspiracies, such as EU plans to micro-chip children.

There are also more credible concerns over the erosion of Irish identity: after struggling against the British oppressor, why acquiesce to another superstate?

Ireland has already lost one prime minister to the controversy. Bertie Ahern quit as Taoiseach for fear that the referendum would turn into a vote on his own finances.

Ireland has been engulfed by sleaze scandals. When the government and main opposition parties are all urging voters to vote for the treaty, there is a risk that disenchanted voters will be suspicious.

There are also concerns over the economy, with unemployment in Ireland rising by up to 1,000 a week.

In the face of a downturn, with far poorer countries joining the EU in recent years, the chances of Ireland enjoying its subsidies of yesteryear are rapidly vanishing. Privately, the Taoiseach's aides have been telling their friends yesterday they were confident of approving the treaty by a margin of around 53 per cent to 47 per cent.

But even in the event of a Yes victory, the result could depend on turnout: anything less than 40 per cent would be widely interpreted as a victory for the No lobby.

If the No campaign is triumphant, the treaty – or constitution, as critics like to call it – will be dead in its current form. Ireland is the only country having a referendum on the treaty this time, as it is bound by its own constitution to ask the people to endorse any constitutional changes.

For everyone else, including the UK, the treaty just has to be signed off by national governments.

So far, 18 EU members have done so, including the parliaments of Estonia, Finland and Greece on Wednesday.

A No vote could get Gordon Brown temporarily off the hook from holding a referendum in Britain. Although an unnamed diplomat has insisted that the UK will ratify the treaty, Mr Brown has been under pressure to live up to his manifesto commitment to hold a referendum.

The government has argued that it only pledged a referendum on an EU constitution, not just a treaty. But critics argue the distinction is purely semantic.

Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor and effectively the architect of the treaty, has the most to gain from it being rubber- stamped, as does Nicolas Sarkozy who takes over the EU French presidency on 1 July.

A No vote by any country would effectively force all 27 members back to the drawing board, scuppering the treaty for the short term.

The No lobby in Ireland has been using posters of Peter Mandelson's face to scare voters.

Campaigners have demonised the EU trade commissioner, using the slogan on its giant billboards: "Say No to Mandelson's Europe".

Even Mr Brown, a long-term foe of Blairite Mandelson, would chuckle at that one.

What's next if referendum goes against Lisbon Treaty?

What are the implications for Europe's 490 million citizens if Ireland votes No?

The EU will either exempt Ireland from the treaty for now and then invite it to join at a later date (this would mean the republic having to hold a second referendum as it did with the Nice treaty), or all the EU states would be obliged to negotiate a brand new deal with its inevitable endless round of bartering between the member states. It would, either way, be a severe setback to the whole process of reforming EU structures and preparing for further expansion.

Why are so many Irish people prepared to vote against the treaty, given how well Ireland has done out of the EU?

The reasons are as complex as the disparate forces opposing the treaty. Pro-free-market groups claim the deal will lead to tax harmonisation and take away the republic's low-tax advantage that has attracted foreign, mainly US multinational investment, and fed the Celtic tiger. Nationalists, led by Sinn Fein, argue ratifying the treaty severely dilutes Ireland's sovereignty. The Catholic Right meanwhile claims that a strengthened European court of justice will overrule Irish laws such as the republic's outright ban on abortion.

What will the domestic impact be if there is a No vote?

It would be a major setback for the new Irish Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, and a boost for Sinn Fein, which suffered significant losses in last year's general election.

How would Ireland be perceived in Europe if its electorate reject the deal?

Senior Irish government strategists admit it would be deeply embarrassing and a body-blow to the credibility of Ireland in Europe. They argue that slowing up the process of EU reform would fatally weaken Ireland's influence.

Would a No vote mean the Irish have become a nation of Eurosceptics?

Not necessarily. Even some of opponents of the treaty are keen to stress that they do not advocate pulling out of the EU entirely. Only a fringe element of Irish politics are in favour of withdrawing from the union. The Irish government hopes it will not have to return to the negotiating table and explain to its European partners why their electorate derailed the Lisbon initiative.

FACT BOX

BRITAIN is already in the process of ratifying the Lisbon Treaty.

The House of Commons has approved it, and it is currently being scrutinised by the House of Lords.

Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister, has ruled out a public referendum, and the government says that it will continue with the ratification process whatever today's outcome.

The treaty is designed to streamline the structure of the European Union. It will also mean that the EU can take decisions by majority rather than unanimous voting in 50 new areas, including judicial and police co-operation, education and economic policy.

Britain and Ireland get opt-outs in judicial and police areas. Unanimity is still required in foreign and defence policy, social security, taxation and culture.

Under the treaty, the EU would have a president who answered to the EU governments but was also a member of the European Commission.

That person would have a high-profile diplomatic role, getting control over the EU's aid budget and its extensive network of diplomats and civil servants.

Under the treaty, the EU executive office would be cut from the current 27 members to 17 as of 2014. Commissioners would be selected on a rotation system among the states, and would sit for five-year terms.

The aim is to have all EU countries ratify the treaty for EU-wide elections to the European Parliament, which are planned for June 2009.