What's the alternative if devolution is flagging?

Published on Thursday 1 May 2008 10:17

The Scottish Constitutional Commission met for the first time this week. Scottish Political Editor Ian Swanson examines whether it can come up with proposals to shore up devolution that will satisfy everyone . . except perhaps the Nationalists.

IN just over six months, a disparate group of 15 people should be presenting the first draft of their alternative to Scottish independence. Sir Kenneth Calman and his fellow members on the Scottish Constitutional Commission have been asked to take stock of ten years of devolution, look at the existing powers of the Scottish Parliament and come up with proposals for any changes they believe necessary.

The idea is that Labour, Liberal Democrat and Conservative politicians can unite behind plans to boost Holyrood's powers – including more responsibility over taxes – and thus offer a coherent alternative to the SNP's aim of independence.

It's a big task. And the commission has set itself a tight deadline – an interim report by November and final report by spring next year.

So what are the chances of success?

The hope is that the commission – which includes peers, professors, businessmen and a Big Brother winner – will come up with recommendations which all three main opposition parties can back.

But the members are approaching the issue from a wide variety of starting points. Even Sir Kenneth, the former Chief Medical Officer and current Chancellor of Glasgow University, who is chairing the commission, admits: "I think it is fair to say that one or two members need to be convinced about the need for change."

Apart from the parties' nominees, the commission includes Iain McMillan, the director of CBI Scotland, and Murdoch MacLennan, chief executive of the Telegraph Media Group, who will sit alongside Unison's Scottish secretary Matt Smith and others.

And even if the commission can agree on proposals, there is the further hurdle of securing the support of the Labour, Lib Dem and Conservative leaderships not just at Holyrood but also at Westminster.

When Labour leader Wendy Alexander first outlined the idea of the commission in a St Andrew's Day lecture at Edinburgh University last November, it looked like a bold initiative, moving the party firmly away from its previous stance that there was no need to consider new powers for the parliament.

But not all Labour politicians are convinced an agreed package of extra powers for Holyrood is the right way forward.

One Labour insider described the commission as a "knee jerk" reaction to the SNP's National Conversation and argued that any lasting solution intended to keep Scotland as part of the United Kingdom ought to be worked out on a UK basis, taking into account the position of Wales and Northern Ireland too.

Although the Tories are signed up to the commission, they are also far from united on the issue of more powers.

Leader Annabel Goldie has even asked MSPs not to make their own submissions to the commission, but to speak to her instead.

A Tory source says: "They are worried everyone will say different and contradictory things. There is some concern among the grassroots of the party about us being involved in the commission at all. They fear we are being sucked into a Labour-organised initiative.

"A lot of members don't want the parliament to have more powers – indeed, some would still like to see it abolished.

"But the polls suggest the constitutional option people favour most is having the parliament with more powers and Annabel feels we have got to be part of that, not behind as we have been in the past."

The Lib Dems are the only party united on the issue of more powers for Holyrood.

A Lib Dem insider acknowledges the "challenge" of winning over the sceptics in the other parties, but insists the commission is likely to produce a strong set of proposals which can form the basis of an agreement.

"It would defy political logic for them to come back with any proposal that didn't involve greater powers for the Scottish Parliament – particularly fiscal powers.

"Labour and the Conservatives have a job of work to do in their own parties in selling greater powers, especially to some of their members at Westminster.

"But there are other benefits for them – any new system would almost certainly mean the end of the Barnett formula as it is and that would remove a headache for everyone."

The hope is that the commission will produce a package which all the parties can sign up to rather than a pick-and-mix series of recommendations which the parties can select or reject.

The Lib Dem insider adds: "The whole purpose of going down this route is to get something that would get through the House of Commons relatively easily.

"And that needs a buy-in by all the parties so it is not ambushed by difficult backbenchers at Westminster."

An opinion poll this week claimed support for independence is now at an all-time low. Just 19 per cent of people said they would vote for "a completely separate state outside the UK" while 38 per cent backed "greater powers" and 34 per cent supported the existing powers.

Even in a straight choice independence gets only 25 per cent support compared with 59 per cent for the status quo.

The SNP argues the wording of the question distorts the result, insisting a previous poll which phrased the question in the same way as proposed by the Government for a referendum – "I agree the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state" – produced a more accurate picture with 41 per cent saying yes and 40 per cent no.

But whatever the rights and wrongs of the polls, there is no word yet from the opposition parties that they will put their agreed option forward for a referendum.

COMMISSION MEMBERS

&#149 Sir Kenneth Calman Chancellor of Glasgow University and former Chief Medical Officer (Chairman)

&#149 Lord Colin Boyd former Lord Advocate (Labour)

&#149 Rani Dhir Director Drumchapel Housing Co-operative

&#149 Lord James Douglas Hamilton former Scottish Office Minister, (Conservative)

&#149 Professor Sir David Edward retired Judge of the European Court

&#149 Lord Murray Elder former adviser to Donald Dewar (Labour)

&#149 Audrey Findlay convener of the Scottish Liberal Democrats

&#149 Lord Jamie Lindsay former Scottish Office Minister, (Conservative)

&#149 John Loughton president of the Scottish Youth Parliament and winner of Big Brother Celebrity Hijack

&#149 Murdoch MacLennan chief executive, Telegraph Media Group

&#149 Shonaig Macpherson chairwoman of the Scottish Council Development and Industry

&#149 Iain McMillan director, CBI Scotland

&#149 Mona Siddiqui professor of Islamic Studies, Glasgow University

&#149 Matt Smith Scottish Secretary, Unison

&#149 Lord Jim Wallace former Deputy First Minister (Liberal Democrat)