Honesty is the best policy for all the parties at the election

GORDON Brown is today expected to set out what he believes are the crucial differences between Labour and the Tories in the forthcoming election, claiming that Britain faces the biggest choice for a generation.

The Prime Minister will claim this choice is about whether the country will continue on the road to economic recovery or to turn off; between facing challenges together, or as individuals.

Contrasting Labour with the Tories, Mr Brown will warn this choice is real, and if the country makes the wrong decision – by which he means, though does not say explicitly, not re-electing Labour – Britain risks plunging into what he will characterise as an age of austerity.

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So much for the rhetoric, what about the reality? Today's Scotsman/YouGov poll on the impact of this week's Budget on Scotland does not, on the face of it, provide Mr Brown and his Chancellor, Alistair Darling, with much hope of convincing the voters of their argument.

Almost half of us think we will be worse off after Wednesday's pre-election Budget – that is 48 per cent compared to just 3 per cent who think they will be better off). Only 5 per cent of Scots thought the Budget was good for Scotland while 30 per cent thought it was bad, although 46 per cent thought it made no difference.

However, there is a glimmer of hope for Mr Brown in the poll with more people agreeing with Labour's assertion that the cuts in public spending we all know must come should be postponed until there is more of a sign of recovery, Labour's policy, than made immediately, the Tory plan as far as they have one.

There was a further sign that the Prime Minister, who six months ago was judged to have no chance of securing a fourth term for Labour, is at least in with a chance of a surprise victory, or at the very least of saving his party from humiliation.

Although there was low rating for all the parties over who was being most honest over the cuts to come, a signal of general disillusionment with politics and politicians, Labour is seen to have been straighter than the others including, significantly, the SNP.

In saying all of this, we have to be aware that this is a poll in Scotland, where Labour is traditionally stronger than in other parts of the UK. Scotland is less keen on an early deficit reduction than the rest of the UK, for example, suggesting that Labour has more work to do south of the Border.

The conclusion from our poll is, therefore, that Labour still has a chance but if it is to triumph against the odds it will not be through any fine speech by Mr Brown but by exploiting the opening that its honesty rating gives it and telling us more about the cuts to come.

Similarly, it is incumbent on the Tories, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP to be more open with the voters about their plans in the run-up to polling day. As this poll tells us, it is clear that even if they don't much like the results of policies the politicians propose, the electorate want to be told it straight. They would, in short, rather hear about honesty than austerity.