Labour lead SNP in Scotland for first time since indyref, poll shows

A YouGov survey suggests Labour will be the biggest party in Scotland after the general election.

Labour are leading the SNP in Scotland for first time since the independence referendum, new polling has shown.

A YouGov voting intention survey found Sir Keir Starmer’s party were ahead of the SNP for the first time since 2014, with the survey showing one in three Scots intended to vote Labour at the general election.

Placing Labour on 33 per cent, the poll gave the party a small two-point lead over the SNP, who were on 31 per cent.

It follows a YouGov poll in October that put the SNP just one point ahead of Labour, with the two parties on 33 per cent and 32 per cent respectively.

The survey also shows the SNP have lost 20 per cent of their 2019 voters to Labour, and are holding on to just 66 per cent of those who backed them previously.

It also highlights a dramatic fall in the Conservative vote share in Scotland, with Douglas Ross’s party dropping from 20 per cent to 14 per cent.

This comes in the face of a bump for Reform UK, with the right-wing party surging from 2 per cent to 7 per cent.

The polling shows the first lead for Sir Keir Starmer's party since 2014.

The survey has the Tories only holding on to 54 per cent of their 2019 voters, having lost 19 per cent to Labour and 22 per cent to Reform UK.

Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats are on 7 per cent, up 2 per cent, and the Greens are unchanged on 5 per cent.

The Holyrood polling also makes for grim reading for Humza Yousaf, with his party only two points ahead of Labour, at 34 per cent and 32 per cent respectively. This is compared to the eight point lead they held in October.

A total of 1,100 adults in Scotland were interviewed from March 25 to April 2 for the survey. This timeframe coincided with controversy over the Scottish Government's Hate Crime Act, which faced a significant backlash with protests outside Holyrood. It broadened the offence of “stirring up racial hatred”, extending it to the protected characteristics of disability, religion, sexual orientation, age, and transgender identity.

Mr Yousaf’s party has seen its support drop after a series of scandals, with both former first minister Nicola Sturgeon and her husband Peter Murrell arrested last year as part of a police probe into the SNP’s finances, then released without charge. The investigation into the party is ongoing.

On independence, there was little change, with 53 per cent of Scots saying they would vote No in a repeat of the 2014 referendum, compared to 47 per cent who would vote Yes. This is the same result as YouGov polling carried out in September last year.

Labour candidate for East Renfrewshire and former Better Together head strategist Blair McDougall said: "[The poll result] comes as no surprise to any Labour act knocking doors around Scotland. The coalition of voters Sturgeon stitched together has unravelled into disappointment and the Tory vote has utterly collapsed.”

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said: “This is a huge moment, but we take nothing for granted. Under my leadership, Scottish Labour is fighting for every vote to deliver the change that Scotland needs.”

SNP MP Tommy Sheppard said: "The Tories will rightly be sent packing at the next general election – and they deserve nothing less. However, with both Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party and the Tories joined at the hip on all major fiscal policies, including Brexit, it's clear that only the SNP are offering that alternative with independence.

"At the next election, it is only the SNP who can make Scotland Tory free, stand up for Scotland's values, and defend Scotland's interests at every possible opportunity."