Tom Peterkin: Cameron's Highland gains?

Published on Saturday 12 December 2009 19:14

LORD Fraser, the ebullient Tory grandee, was dispensing drinks and bonhomie with his customary largesse to around 50 friends who had gathered at his house in the Angus countryside.

There was an unmistakeable air of optimism as party interns, student activists and county worthies mixed with George Kynoch, the deputy chairman of the Scottish Conservatives, and Alberto Costa, a 38-year-old lawyer who desperately hopes to be at the forefront of a great Scottish Tory revival.

Costa, a Scots-Italian, has given up his job as a high-flying UK Government lawyer in London, to move to Angus to reclaim a seat that was once held by Fraser himself, but since the Tory wipe-out of 1997 has been SNP territory.

The easy atmosphere of the Fraser party was in stark contrast to a scene a few weeks before, when Costa had been in nearby Brechin for a photocall to mark the 1.8 million grant awarded to the cathedral city under the Town Centre Regeneration Fund passed by the Scottish Parliament.

Costa was attempting to generate some publicity for himself as he highlighted the fund – a Tory idea that the Finance Secretary John Swinney adopted in return for parliamentary support for his budget.

The photocall was hijacked by Mike Weir, the SNP MP for Angus who, with the help of friends, unfurled a banner emblazoned with the words "John Swinney" between Costa and the photographer.

"I think they want to fight a dirty campaign against me, because they're scared that they are going to lose the seat," Costa said yesterday, recalling how they refused to budge, wrecking his photo opportunity.

"That is exactly what's going to happen, because we are going to win it."

Costa's confidence reflected the optimism amongst the local campaigners at the Fraser party, who remember the pre-devolution days when the Tories were a force in the land and their host was a minister running Scotland alongside such names as Michael Forsyth, Ian Lang and Lord James Douglas-Hamilton.

The actions of Weir and his supporters are a reminder, as if one were needed, that it is going to be a hell of a fight for the Tartan Tories. With Weir defending a majority of just 1,601, Angus is one of the more winnable of the ten constituencies that the Tories are aiming to capture at next year's general election, in addition to holding Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale – the seat of the shadow Scottish secretary David Mundell.

The results of internal Tory polling, seen by Scotland on Sunday, suggests there is cause for optimism and the appointment of the former Scottish Tory leader David McLetchie as General Election campaign manager shows the party means business.

With Labour struggling under a deeply unpopular Prime Minister, the Lib Dems failing to make an impact and Alex Salmond's golden touch appearing to desert him, the time should be ripe for Tory inroads. But can they really stage a famous recovery? For some Scots, old wounds have yet to heal. Almost two decades after the Poll Tax and the premiership of Margaret Thatcher, the grievances of those days are still ingrained in the folk memory.

"I would say that Tory is still looked upon as a four letter word – with another word in front of it," said Cllr Sandy West, an SNP politician representing Montrose, the seaside town where Costa has just moved.

"That's what we get in the constituency when we're knocking doors. It is still this legacy from the Thatcher years.

"It is a legacy that is not going to last forever, but it is still there at the moment. It has obviously been there for the last ten years and I have no idea how much longer it is going to last – but long may it last."

McLetchie said the Thatcher effect will not resonate as much in 2010 as it did in the three most recent general elections in Scotland: "I think we can overcome that. Whereas in 1997 and 2001 we saw situations in constituencies where people voted tactically to get the Tories out, Labour was the beneficiary of that. Now people are voting tactically for us, because they want to get the Labour Party out."

A fertile source of support is thought to be that category of voter who would perhaps not be natural Tories, but who are disillusioned with the Government and think Cameron can replace Brown.

A second target group is described as pro-Tory SNP voters. They are from a Tory background but voted SNP as a snub to Labour, and are coming back to the Tories because Cameron is seen as a winner.

Over the next few months, the Conservatives will be hammering home their message that next year's poll is a British General Election and that they are the only party of capable of defeating Labour next year to kick Brown out of Downing Street.

Masses of resources are being poured into their 11 target seats and McLetchie is hopeful that the winning feeling will translate into the first steps out of the Westminster wilderness for them in Scotland.

"Scots are voting to elect a British Government and we are the only party that can provide an alternative to five more years of Labour Government are the Conservatives," he said. "People are now assuming that we will win. Nobody thought we would win in 1997, 2001 or 2005, so we are telling people in our target seats that their votes will count.

"Our research tells us that two thirds of people in Scotland are taking us seriously and that we are going to be the party that is going to be in government and influencing their lives."

McLetchie said that Lib Dem voters were also ripe for poaching. That theory that must hold true if the Tories are to unseat Michael Moore in Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, Robert Smith in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine or Alan Reid in the three-way marginal Argyll and Bute.

Ousting Alistair Darling in Edinburgh South West is also a priority. But overturning his 7,242 majority will be a challenge. Next door the sitting Labour MP Nigel Griffiths is looking vulnerable, defending a 405 majority over the Lib Dems.

The Tories, who are in third place, 3,897 behind Labour, will be hoping to capitalise on the embarrassing publicity surrounding reports from earlier this year about the married Griffiths "cavorting" with a mystery brunette in his Commons office.

Indeed, the relative absence of scandal in the Tory ranks is something that the they can make a virtue of – at least north of the border. One of the few benefits of the Scottish Tories' electoral oblivion is that with the exception of Mundell, none of the Scottish Tory candidates will have been associated in any way with the Westminster expenses scandal.

Voters may still be angry about the duck house excesses of the Tories south of the border, but the new generation of Scottish candidates are as clean as Douglas Hogg's moat. Not surprisingly, Conservative private polling has shown that MPs' expenses still cause huge anger.

The other key issues are (in no particular order): the economy jobs; defence; immigration; the banks; health; crime and education.

The economy looms large. Nowhere to be seen is the constitutional question – a finding that has given more encouragement to the Conservatives as they take the fight to the SNP. In addition to Angus, the Tories are hopeful that they can overturn the slender 1,521 majority of Pete Wishart in Perth and North Perthshire.

Therefore Tories will be driving the idea that neither Labour nor the SNP can be trusted with the economy, while the constitution will be put on the back-burner – pragmatic, given the splits within the party over whether or when they should implement the Calman recommendations.

"Against a background of financial crisis, the thing to say is that if we are going to get Britain and Scotland out of the financial mire we need a stable Government to achieve that," McLetchie said.

Alex Salmond has forecast that his party will win 20 seats, a result that the First Minister has said would see the House of Commons "hung by a Scottish rope" in the event of the Conservatives failing to win an overall majority.

McLetchie said: "If we get a confused election result it is going to be that much more difficult to pull the economy out of recession. It would be incredibly difficult for a minority government to take the decisions needed to improve the financial situation."

While the Conservatives' internal research offers encouragement, the pressure to make progress is enormous. Failure to do so would be disastrous for a party that is deeply committed to the Union.

Even in the post-devolution era, a return to the pre-1997 situation where Scots felt dominated by a governing London-based party would play into the hands of the SNP and could lead to constitutional upheaval.

"Starting from such a low base, if they fail to advance in Scotland and they win the UK election, that will create serious difficulties and will question their legitimacy in Scotland," said James Mitchell, professor of politics at Strathclyde University.

"Their opponents will point out that they don't have a mandate in Scotland, so it is very important that they do as well as possible. Things are going to be very tricky for the Tories up here whatever happens. They are going to have to have MPs to fufil roles down south and a number of MPs to defend its Government's record, because you cannot expect MSPs to do that.

"On the constitution, they are going to have to be very sensitive and they are going to have to do something on the Scottish question – whatever that means."

So the key question remains. Do the Tories have a decent chance of winning their 11 target seats?

"They are right to be ambitious," Mitchell said. "But they are not going to win 11 and I think they know that. They are certainly going to pick up seats and if they pick up four or five, they will be quite happy."

Mitchell's prediction tallies with the findings of an enterprising journalist who visited Tory Central Office in Princes Street, Edinburgh, a few weeks ago. Not in the least bit interested in minding his own business, the journalist flicked through a flip chart when party officials made the mistake of leaving him alone for a few seconds.

On it, he found a graph with seats on the vertical axis and the General Election dates 2010 and 2014 on the horizontal axis. The diagram forecast four seats in 2010 and 10 in 2014. At this stage still way short of the 11 target.

The resurrection of the Tartan Tories may yet be some way off.