Time for Mr Salmond to show his hand as Scotland gets set for future

Published on Sunday 29 November 2009 22:44

ALEX Salmond, the First Minister, proclaimed the day that he launched his National Conversation about independence to be historic. It was, in that no government has ever commenced such a discussion.

Today, he returns to the same venue at which he made that declaration to publish a white paper aimed at paving the way for a parliamentary bill to give authority for a referendum on independence to be held. It can be safely assumed that this will also be pronounced to be another historic day, no less because it is St Andrew's Day.

Events, however, seem to be casting doubt on Mr Salmond's hopes of being a history-maker. The three main opposition parties appear to have left little room for doubt that they will vote against the SNP's referendum bill and thus it is unlikely to happen this side of the next Holyrood election in 2011.

The electorate, to judge by opinion polls, have lost interest. The latest poll, published at the weekend, found that only a quarter want to vote on the question of independence, while only a fifth support it. The evidence suggests quite strongly that people feel that dealing with the recession and preventing the toll of unemployment from rising further are more important matters.

Mr Salmond, though he and his party are assiduous students of opinion surveys, is likely to press ahead with his timetable which, it should be said, was a manifesto commitment. There is some merit in this. Publication of the white paper will allow everyone to know more of the SNP's plans including the nature of the independence it seeks for Scotland, and whether (and if so, how) it plans to allow for a wider choice than just independence.

The need for a diversity of choice over Scotland's constitutional future has been underlined by the acceptance of the UK Labour government of most of the recommendations for change in the current devolution settlement proposed by Sir Kenneth Calman's commission. It is regrettable that the Conservatives, so far, have only promised to extend Holyrood's powers in general terms, but it still remains reasonably clear that the principal unionist parties are committed to change which, opinion polls say, commands substantial public support.

The principal advantage in today's white paper is that it should provide some clarity about how the SNP government proposes to handle these competing constitutional claims. One of the main, and not entirely unjustified, complaints raised by opposition parties is that the SNP intend to ask a rigged question that will get the answer the party wants, much as differently worded opinion surveys on the same subject get different answers on public attitudes.

It is therefore to be hoped that Mr Salmond – providing he matches up to indications already given that he is willing to contemplate a plebiscite that allows for choice between the status quo, enhanced devolution, and independence – also shows some willingness to be flexible on the wording of the referendum question(s) to be asked. That, while not quite historic, at least would allow history to move forward.