Tim Montgomerie: Nothing to lose from letting Scottish Tories go it alone

Published on Friday 1 October 2010 22:34

AT THE 1997 General Election every Scottish Conservative candidate was defeated. At three subsequent general elections Scotland has sent just one Scottish Tory to Westminster. Peter Duncan in 2001, and then, after Duncan was unseated in 2005, David Mundell MP.

Nothing seems to revive the Scottish Conservatives. Thirteen years of Labour government that ended in a record-breaking bust. Sleaze at the top of the Scottish Labour Party before 2007. The Iraq war. The rise of nationalism under Alex Salmond. The release of the Lockerbie bomber. These events have come and gone, but the Scottish Tories have stayed flat on the floor.

At the start of the period of deep unpopularity the party was seen as too Thatcherite for Scotland and was punished for opposing devolution. More recently, Annabel Goldie has gone to the other extreme. As leader of the Tory MSPs she enthusiastically embraced the politics of Holyrood. She has traded successfully with the minority SNP administration. She won extra police officers and a new approach to drug rehabilitation in return for allowing Alex Salmond's budget to pass. She has also worked with Scottish Labour and Liberal Democrats and agreed a plan to deepen devolution. The result is the same: one Scottish Tory MP.

Tory strategists inside 10 Downing Street scratch their heads. David Cameron committed everything he had to his 'respect for Scotland' agenda. He rejected calls to review the Barnett formula and therefore cut Scotland's share of UK spending. He also rejected calls for an English Parliament.

A survey of 1,727 Conservative members across Britain, urges against such caution, however. Seventy per cent disagree with the suggestion that "nothing should be done" because "with patience, popularity will be restored".

The favoured recipe is the creation of a 'Made in Scotland party'. Fifty-eight per cent of Tory members think the Scottish party should have its own directly-elected leader; 49 per cent think the Scottish party should be functionally separate from the party in England and Wales, choosing its own policies, priorities and candidates.

David Cameron has nothing to lose from allowing Scotland's Conservatives to become semi-detached. At present they just bring one seat to the Commons. A new, patriotic, right-of-centre party, cut free from English baggage, might bring a dozen or more seats into a right-of-centre coalition with him.

• Tim Montgomerie is Editor of ConservativeHome.com