The state of things to come in US elections

Published on Sunday 5 October 2008 22:44

Complex system and volatility of the electorate combine to make predicting the outcome difficult, writes Chris Stephen

WITH less than a month to go before the US presidential elections, Barack Obama and John McCain are dropping the megaphones and pulling out the pocket calculators to plot a path to victory through America's fiendishly complex electoral system.

Success on 4 November will go not to the candidate who gets the most votes, but to the one who secures the right states. Each state sends delegates, based on its size, to a national electoral college with 538 places, giving victory to the first candidate to secure 270.

It is this dynamic that makes predictions such a difficult business. At its simplest, Mr McCain will win if he can hold onto all the states that George Bush won in 2004, the so-called red states.

But the margin of that 2004 victory was narrow and Mr Obama is making inroads into a clutch of red states.

He wins if he can snatch just one of the big red states, such as Ohio or Florida, from Mr McCain's grasp, while also holding onto the states that went Democratic in 2004.

And that's where things get complicated. Because Mr McCain is fighting hard to cut into the blue states. If he can capture some, Mr Obama's task will be all the harder.

On paper, Mr Obama is now in the driving seat: if the election were held tomorrow, he would win comfortably, picking up leads in once Republican states including Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina and Virginia. Mr McCain, meanwhile, has no leads in any of the blue states.

But the reason Mr Obama is not gloating, and Mr McCain not panicking, is the sheer volatility of the electorate. Mr Obama's leads in Republican states are narrow and the polls notoriously volatile. A fortnight ago Mr McCain was in the lead in these states and nationally, and there is time in the four weeks remaining for the tide to turn again, and perhaps several times.

Making Mr Obama's task easier is the apparent defection of Iowa from red to blue by a double-digit margin.

The state's seven votes appear to be safely blue, cutting the number of votes Mr Obama needs to just 12. Even if he fails to grab Florida or Ohio from Mr McCain, he could win the White House, by the narrowest possible margin, simply by taking North Carolina or Virginia from the Republicans.

Alternatively, Mr Obama can get to the White House by triumphing in the three western states of Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada that have changed decades of voting Republican to swing to the Democrats.

The dynamic of the race seems set: in closing his campaign in the blue state of Michigan late last week, Mr McCain has signalled that his priority now is circling the wagons, trying less to grab states from the Democrats and more to holding onto Republican ones.

As such, the popularity of his running mate, Sarah Palin, and her everywoman appeal will be an important factor, shoring up support in those red states.

The surge in support for Mr Obama comes as the Wall Street bail-out dominates the news, and voters consistently tell pollsters they trust Mr Obama more than Mr McCain on economic issues.

But Mr McCain wins support when the issue is national security, and saw his own poll numbers jump during the Russian invasion of Georgia in the summer.

Another national security crisis, or terrorist attack, could see the pendulum swing back to Mr McCain.

Mr McCain's other problem is money: His decision to commit to Federal funding means his campaign budget is limited by law to $84 million, roughly the cash Mr Obama has been raising from his online army of supporters every two months. It has allowed Mr Obama to swamp a dozen states with advertising and election officers, leaving Mr McCain at full stretch.

While Mr Obama has solid leads among blacks and the young, and Mr McCain among older voters, the most revealing dynamic of the election is the split between town and country.

Urban voters, even in red states, plump for the Democrats, rural ones for the Republicans across America, cutting across cultural and economic divides.

The final great unknown is how much of a factor race plays in the race. Black voters have flocked overwhelmingly to Mr Obama, but how many whites will turn away based on colour is unknown. Polls rarely ask the question because pollsters don't expect a straight answer.

How much race will matter, and whether it will trump other issues in the minds of white voters, are questions that will only be answered on election day, if at all.

PENNSYLVANIA

THE demography here is not dissimilar to Ohio, with plenty of farms and two cities, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, both in steep economic decline since the crumbling of heavy industry in the 1980s.

In normal times a solidly Democratic state, its blue-collar voters are suspicious of Mr Obama. Hillary Clinton won handsomely here against Mr Obama in the primaries, by appealing to the state's white, hard-working voters, and the suspicion of such voters towards Mr Obama makes Pennsylvania, with 21 votes, the most important blue state targeted for capture by John McCain.

Mr Obama's choice of Senator Joseph R Biden of Delaware as running-mate could help him here – the senator has solid, Catholic, working-class credentials.

&#149 Latest polling – Obama 54 per cent vs McCain 39 per cent.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

AMONG a sea of solidly Democratic states in the US's north-eastern corner, this famously quixotic state may turn red, with its voters nervous about Mr Obama's inexperience. Its position as one of the first states in each season's primary contests gives it a special place in the election calendar, and its voters seem to delight in giving candidates a close race. With the battle tight, its four electoral college delegates could make all the difference.

• Latest polling – Obama 48 per cent vs McCain 44 per cent.

FLORIDA

FLORIDA is the biggest swing state of them all – and the most confounding – presenting the candidates with a bubbling broth of ethnic groups that need to be wooed.

Blacks and students are siding with Mr Obama; Cuban Americans and an army of retirees favour Mr McCain.

The key swing group may be the Jewish vote: some older voters think Israel will get a better deal from Mr McCain than Mr Obama, but in 2004 most Jewish voters backed the Democrats.

Groups of young Jewish Democrats have been dispatched down from New York to try to convince their elders to vote for the party.

Mr Obama has poured time and resources into this state that president George Bush won by about five percentage points in 2004, and recent polls suggest it is paying off.

• Latest polling – Obama 51 per cent vs McCain 47 per cent

OHIO

GEORGE Bush won Ohio last time around with the votes of a few rural counties, and it remains evenly split, thanks to a population mix of traditional farmers and city dwellers.

Its 20 electoral votes make it one of the most important states for both candidates. But the local Republican Party has been racked by scandal and losses, including the governor's seat, meaning Mr McCain certainly has his work cut out for him.

&#149 Latest polling – Obama 50 per cent vs McCain 42 per cent.

VIRGINIA

AS WITH the western states, this is a red state that is turning blue, thanks to migration – in this case, of liberal voters who have moved out to the state's suburbs from the heavily Democrat Washington DC.

The large African-American population in the United States capital itself is also expected to vote in unprecedented numbers during this election, giving Mr Obama a boost.

&#149 Latest polling – Obama 45 per cent vs McCain 48 per cent.

MISSOURI

WHILE not strictly a swing state in the current campaign situation, Missouri is notable for its status as a "bellwether" in US presidential elections – from 1900-2004 it has voted for the eventual winner, apart from once in 1956 when it went for Adlai Stevenson. That's a track record of being correct in 26 out of 27 votes. For this election, in addition to registering voters in urban areas, Mr Obama is hoping to find support in rural stretches to cut into Republican strongholds.

&#149 Latest polling – Obama 48 per cent vs McCain 49 per cent.

COLORADO, NEW MEXICO, NEVADA

THE surprise package in the election campaign, these western states were once solidly Republican, but demography has given the Democrats the edge.

In recent years, there has been a migration from cold northern cities to the so-called Sunbelt, bringing legions of liberal voters into play. Mr Obama has narrow leads in all three states, aided by the large influx of Mexican immigrants, and they could deliver him victory on 4 November, even if he fails to wrestle control of Republican states further to the east.

&#149 Latest polling: Colorado – Obama 51 per cent vs McCain 47 per cent.

&#149 Nevada – Obama 51 per cent vs McCain 47 per cent.

&#149 New Mexico – Obama 49 per cent vs McCain 42 per cent.