Swine flu: 'Brown needs to look more emotional'

Published on Saturday 2 May 2009 19:38

IT WOULD be uncharitable to suggest that one place in Britain where the swine flu crisis was welcomed with open arms was Number 10 Downing Street, but there is little doubt Gordon Brown could make political capital from the outbreak as he struggles to contain rebellious MPs.

He has proved adept at handling moments of great national stress in the past.

But last week's humiliating expenses climb-down and the bungled Commons defeat over Gurkha residency appear so damaging that not even a brilliant response to the threat of a pandemic could rescue his flagging reputation.

"Brown was good at selling himself as the man with the ability to handle the financial crisis, but I don't think that we can say the same about health," said John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University. This kind of situation might have been meat and drink to his predecessor given Tony Blair's ability to play the emotion card. But that approach does not sit well with Brown's dour image.

"One way he could make headway would be by connecting emotionally with the people on this, but we are still waiting for the evidence to show that he is good at that," Curtice said.

Unfortunately for Brown, the one way for flu to beat his leadership woes to the top of the political agenda is if there is a perception that the Government is failing to cope with the outbreak. An overloaded NHS 24, overcrowded wards or drugs shortages would simply pile on the agony for him.

In Edinburgh, Alex Salmond has done his best to look statesmanlike. On Thursday, proper politics was postponed when Labour leader Iain Gray refused to take him on and instead offered a patsy question that enabled the First Minister to pontificate on the situation.

But the fact that the virus does not respect the Scottish/English border makes it difficult for Salmond to wage war with Westminster – one of his favourite pastimes. And the need for co-operation between Edinburgh and London does not help the argument for independence.

But capital could be made if it is seen that the Scottish Government has dealt with the crisis more effectively than Brown's UK administration has.

From the SNP's point of view, a lot is riding on the performance of Nicola Sturgeon, the Deputy First Minister and the Health Secretary. So far, she has done well giving regular briefings and forging a constructive relationship with London – an approach that has gone down well with her political opponents.

"Nicola Sturgeon has worked closely with her Westminster colleague Alan Johnston on this issue and I think Alex Salmond can learn lessons from this approach," said Conservative health spokeswoman Mary Scanlon.

"Some of the petty nationalist politics displayed by Mr Salmond has been quite shameful compared to the more competent professional approach shown during the swine flu crisis by Nicola Sturgeon."

Financial impact could deepen slump

IT COULDN'T have come at a worse time. With the economy already under pressure as a result of the recession, the last thing the country needed was the spectre of a flu pandemic hanging over it.

So how prepared are we, as a nation, for the financial fall-out of a swine flu, or any other pandemic? And exactly how much is this crisis likely to cost the UK and global economies?

Meteorologists may have boosted the hopes of the UK tourism industry with predictions of a long hot summer, but any dividend could be jeopardised by potential restrictions on travel and a fear of mingling at large-scale events. Severe damage could be wrought if holidaymakers who had been planning to come to Scotland for the Year of the Homecoming or the Edinburgh Festival decide to go elsewhere.

If the flu spreads, businesses are also likely to struggle to cope with high levels of absenteeism. Although there have only been a handful of confirmed cases in the UK so far, the number of sick days taken in the UK has already risen by 20%, as those with flu-like symptoms opt to stay at home in line with government advice. The Department of Health believes that – should a major pandemic develop – employers could expect to have as many as 25% of their workers off at any one time – at an initial cost of 1.5bn a day.

Yet, while some economists are predicting the worst others insist that, counter-intuitively, the recession could temper the impact of a pandemic, since some of those who contract the illness will already be out of work, and companies which have been hoarding labour in the hope of a recovery, have a degree of slack.

Although uncertainty over how rapidly swine flu is likely to spread makes it difficult to calculate its precise toll, most economists agree the impact is likely to be heavy, particularly if severe restrictions are put it in place to aid containment. The foot and mouth crisis in 2001 cost the UK 9bn, much of it caused by the decision to seal the countryside rather than by the virus itself. Although the outbreak of SARS in 2003 was, in the end, a relatively small and geographically contained outbreak – there were 8,000 cases and 800 deaths across 29 countries – it cost south-east Asia $20bn – about 2.5m for every person affected by the disease.

Last year, World Bank economists estimated that an influenza pandemic with death rates similar to the Spanish flu in 1918 could shrink global GDP by 4.8%. Lyndon Bird, international technical director, the Business Continuity Institute believes a major outbreak could have a similar impact on the UK economy, while even a much smaller one could cost the country as much as 13bn. In addition, a fall in custom could cause struggling small firms to go to the wall, which would have a long-term effect on productivity and further swell the ranks of the unemployed.

"We estimate there are 120 businesses a day closing just now – and there will be a total of 36,000 by the end of the year," says Stephen Alambritis, spokesman for the Federation of Small Businesses. "A flu pandemic could add another 10% to that."

To see how bad things could get you only have to look at Mexico, which is beginning a five-day suspension of all non-essential activities. Schools are closed, concerts and sporting events have been called off, and bars and nightclubs closed. In Mexico City, retail and service industries are losing an estimated $55m a day. In the week since the crisis began, the local stock market has fallen by 3% and the peso has dropped 4% against the dollar.

Douglas Adams, director of consultancy services for Oxford Economics and adviser to Ernst & Young's ITEM Club think-tank in Scotland, has been involved in research on the economic impact of a flu pandemic on the economy. He agrees that if mass restrictions on travel and public gatherings were introduced, a loss of 4% of the global GDP is realistic – this at a time when the IMF is already forecasting a 4.1% contraction of the UK economy and 1.3% of the world economy this year.

Although few believe a shutdown on a Mexican scale is likely, the BCI and the Federation of Small Businesses are encouraging companies to start thinking about how they will cope if swine flu spreads. According to Bird, only a third of UK organisations have a contingency plan to cope with increased staff illness, with small firms the most likely to be ill-prepared. The Federation of Small Businesses is urging such firms to think about how many of their staff could work from home and make sure those employees have the laptops.

"There will, however, be those personal businesses in the retail sector which can't function without a member of staff actually on the premises, and who rely on a flow of customers coming in," adds Alambritis. "We are advising them to go and see their bank mangers and their accountants so they can prepare."

Dani Garavelli