Swine flu hits 900 people every day as cases double

Published on Thursday 17 September 2009 22:05

CASES of swine flu in Scotland have leapt significantly in the past week, figures revealed yesterday, as a further death was reported.

The Scottish Government said that an estimated 6,180 people caught H1N1 in the past week – up from 3,336 the week before– and equivalent to almost 900 a day.

It also emerged that a ninth Scottish patient – a woman from the Lothians – had died after suffering from swine flu. She had significant underlying health conditions, officials said.

The news comes after a patient last week became the first in Scotland to die with swine flu without suffering any other serious health problems.

Yesterday, health secretary Nicola Sturgeon said: "The death of this woman is devastating for her family and friends, and I'd like to express my sincere condolences.

"While this tragic death shows that in some cases the H1N1 virus can cause complications, I would like to stress that the majority of people contracting H1N1 are continuing to experience mild symptoms." Experts had predicted that cases of swine flu in Scotland would rise after children returned to school and also with the onset of colder weather.

The latest figures now show the number of people seeing their GP with flu-like illnesses has increased from 43.9 per 100,000 people last week to 53.3.

The proportion of samples that tested positive for H1N1 decreased from 19.2 per cent last week to 15.7 per cent, suggesting that around 2,160 people consulted their GP with swine flu.

However, taking into account the number of people who have swine flu but have not seen a doctor, Health Protection Scotland estimated that almost 6,200 people contracted the infection in the past week.

This appears to suggest that Scotland now has more new cases than England, which yesterday reported an estimated 5,000 in the past week.

But the Scottish Government said it believed different ways of monitoring and estimating levels of the virus may be behind the differences.

The latest figures confirm that youngsters continue to be the hardest hit.

GP consultations for under-fours with flu symptoms increased from 129 to 180 per 100,000 people, while in the five-to-14 age group they rose from 37 to 52.

So far in Scotland, 143 people have had to be admitted to hospital with H1N1, with 13 hospitalised in the last week. Five people remain in hospital.

Ms Sturgeon said: "The potential threat from H1N1 remains serious, even if it continues to be a relatively mild virus. Vaccination is the best defence we have against the H1N1 virus and Scotland is preparing very well for the vaccination programme."

Professor Hugh Pennington, a bacteriologist based in Aberdeen, said children returning to school could explain the rise.

"Nobody wants to make predictions about what is going to happen as it is a new virus," he said.

"But people have been expecting that the schools going back will help the virus get around. It has been basically targeting schoolchildren anyway."

DEADLY DUO

SWINE flu could combine with the MRSA superbug with deadly effects, experts are warning.

The flu virus interferes with the body's ability to get rid of MRSA. This means the bug can get into the lungs and lead to patients suffering pneumonia in combination with flu infection.

Such cases have been seen in Australia, which has experienced higher levels of swine flu during its winter season. The issue will be discussed at a specialist forum in France next week.

Microbiologist Hugh Pennington said Staphylococcus aureus infections had occurred with flu during the pandemic of 1957.

"With MRSA, it would be even more difficult to treat than with staphylococcus, and that is bad enough," he said.