Suspicion lingers over nuclear subs' collision

Published on Monday 16 February 2009 20:51

WAS the mid-Atlantic collision of HMS Vanguard and Le Triomphant, two nuclear-powered and armed submarines operated by the British and French navies respectively, really the "million-to-one" accident it has been portrayed as – or is something else going on? Belatedly – after the story was revealed in a tabloid newspaper – the Royal Navy admitted the boats "came into contact at a very low speed" while submerged.

But these vessels are each capable of at least 25 knots underwater. Which opens the prospect of 28,000 tonnes of metal, two reactors, 32 ballistic missiles with multiple atomic warheads, plus numerous nuclear-tipped torpedoes and Exocet rockets, ramming each other at a combined speed in excess of 50mph.

An explosion is not a threat but the loss of the warheads or a reactor leak are very real concerns. At the very least, we need a fuller explanation of how this potentially catastrophic collision took place.

The truth is that collisions between submerged submarines are far from uncommon. During the Cold War, Nato and Soviet subs played a deadly game of cat and mouse as each attempted to undermine the other's nuclear deterrent capability. Between 1960 and 1993, we know of at least 19 serious such incidents, anyone of which could have been environmentally disastrous. Two of them involved Royal Navy submarines – the nuclear-powered attack boat HMS Sceptre in 1981, and its sister ship HMS Splendid in 1986. In the latter case, a giant Soviet Typhoon class sub went home tangled in Splendid's sonar array.

As it happens, the actual effectiveness of underwater sonar detection is far less than we are led to believe by Hollywood movies such as The Hunt for Red October or Crimson Tide. In some ocean conditions, two submarines can be blind to each other even if quite close. This is a dangerous game. If it must be played, the most strenuous precautions need to be taken.

However, these earlier incidents took place at a time of serious international threat. They were not drills or games played out of sight from naval headquarters. However dangerous, these accidents can be understood as the risks one runs on real military operations – though some would challenge the need for taking such risks even during the Cold War.

But what of the incident between Vanguard and Triomphant? It remains utterly improbable that this was a chance collision. The Atlantic Ocean is vast. These craft move in three dimensions. What are the odds against them not being aware of each other and colliding? Were the two boats engaged in exercises with each other? If so, why not say that? If it was not an exercise, there are even more questions to be asked. Could this have been an "unofficial" game involving one or both captains? Or are we to conclude that our ocean-going nuclear arsenals are sailing virtually blind when they are submerged? We need answers, and soon.