Storm clouds are gathering over the Pope's visit to the UK
THE forecasters predict sunny intervals when Benedict XVI arrives in Edinburgh - but there is a cloud hanging over this first-ever Papal state visit to the UK.
Despite the crowds who will cheer the Pontiff in Princes Street, no-one expects the same enthusiasm for this Pope as there was for his predecessor, John Paul II, when he made his pastoral visit in 1982.
Benedict came to the papacy in 2005 with a hard-line reputation, nicknamed "God's Rottweiler" for his role as the Vatican's enforcer, silencing dissent. As Pope, he has taken an uncompromising stand against contraception and homosexuality and ruled that ordination of women priests cannot even be discussed. He has also angered Jews and Muslims with his comments.
On top of that, there is criticism over his handling of the child sex abuse scandals which have rocked the church.
One senior Scottish Catholic source says times have changed dramatically since 1982 - and public attitudes too.
"The church still thinks it can live off its authority, but the world has changed," he says.
"The locus of moral authority, although it is still there in a nebulous way, is no longer situated in figures like the Pope or the Moderator by virtue of their status.
"Previously there was a kind of Olympian distance for religious leaders, but now they have to make their case and it has to be more rooted in social reality."
The insider accepts that people's memories of John Paul II's 1982 visit make this trip more difficult for Benedict.
"There is a major problem is terms of public perception of the Pope and his papacy, partly because those who remember can't help making the comparison with 28 years ago.
"The cult of the personality has shifted from the church to Big Brother and soap operas.
"In 1982, you had a man who came with stardom written all over him. He was a charismatic personality, had just come through an assassination attempt and there were people almost swooning at him.
"I don't think many people are going to be fainting in Princes Street or Bellahouston Park tomorrow."
But he also says it is too easy to "bad mouth" the Pope.
"For a lot of people with no fixed religious belief, it is easy to scapegoat religious leaders - they become a handy target. Benedict comes in for more than his fair share of that." He suggests hopes of any radical change in Catholic teaching are unrealistic.
"It's ludicrous to expect any institution to have an overnight conversion. And given the Catholic church's authority structures, when it changes its mind and has to face up to what it said was wrong now being put forward as right, that's difficult to square."
One of the most iconic moments of the 1982 visit to Edinburgh was the handshake between the Pope and the Kirk's then Moderator, Professor John McIntyre, at New College in front of the statue of John Knox, the 16th-century reformer who led Scotland's break from the Catholic church.
No such encounter will take place this time. Church leaders of other denominations will meet Benedict XVI at the Palace of Holyroodhouse, but that's it.
The Pope's hard line on so many issues and the continuing abuse scandals have created an unease in other churches as well as among many Catholics, but there is a reluctance to be openly critical.
One Church of Scotland insider says: "Any concerns we might have would be perceived as anti-Catholic, therefore we are keeping our heads down.
"But the silence of the other churches could be considered to speak volumes."
He says the important inter-church relations are at local level, where there are much more positive links between Church of Scotland and Catholic congregations.
"In 1982, John Paul II said we needed to make big strides towards working together - and the question is, have we? What have we done? At local level, a lot. Structurally, nothing."
Like the Church of Scotland, the Catholic church is in numerical decline. Scotland's estimated Catholic population has fallen 18 per cent since 1982.
Mass attendances are down 25 per cent since 1994.
So will Benedict's visit help turn things around for the Catholic church?
Cardinal Keith O'Brien has spoken of the "moral benefits" of the visit and perhaps the Pope's trip will prove an inspiration for the faithful.
But looking at the bigger picture, the abuse scandal could prove far more damaging for the Catholic church than it is willing to recognise.
For many people, it is now the first thing they think of when the Catholic church is mentioned.
At some point during his four-day itinerary in the UK, the Pope is expected to find time for a private meeting with some of the abuse victims and there has been speculation he could make another public apology.
But in a poll, 83 per cent felt the church had been "dishonest" in its handling of the issue.
Another survey found more than half of Catholics said the sex abuse scandal had shaken their faith in the church's leadership.
Arguably it is the authority which the Catholic church claims for itself and its priests which created the conditions for the abuse to take place unchallenged in the first place, then enabled it to be covered up for so long and now allows the church to believe it can deal with it by saying sorry and moving on.
The victims and their families might be forgiven for feeling that all the apologies in the world would not be enough to redeem an organisation which claimed to speak for God and then subjected vulnerable people to such horrors.
Unfortunately for the church, the abuse scandal is likely to live in people's minds far longer than tomorrow's visit.
Convenor of the Humanist Society of Scotland, Juliet Wilson
THE teachings of the Pope have absolutely no place in modern Scottish society.
With influence comes responsibility to protect the vulnerable and that's something the Catholic Church has spectacularly failed to do.
We're constantly being reminded that Benedict XVI is the 'intellectual' Pope, therefore we must surely forgive him for the countless cases of child abuse he covered up. I'm sure he knew what was for the best.
And when he goes to South Africa where someone dies of AIDS every two minutes and says condoms "aggravate" the problem, I, with my limited understanding, must conclude that he's either having a thick moment or he's a liar. And pay attention at the back of the class: there are gays to hate too.
Although the Catholic Church is an institution based on dogma and superstition there's one hard fact that you should remember: it cares more about itself than the individuals within it.
Catholic author Michael Turnbull
I WAS born in an American hospital, in a Muslim country - Turkey. My mother was Brazilian and my father from Edinburgh.
When I first came to Britain in 1949 I was seven. My grandmother, who was Church of Scotland, took me to the local Catholic church in Edinburgh because her son had promised to bring me up a Catholic. This was the Morningside church caught up in the anti-Catholic violence of June 1935.
We do not live in a perfect world: as a Catholic I would do my best to respect the human rights of every individual, whatever their racial origin or sexual orientation.
I see the Church as a community, not always perfect but trying to live out the universal truths that we received from our parents or guardians. If there has been betrayal then restitution needs to be made to help victims move forward.
For all its faults, I see Catholicism as the place where I need to be.
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Weather for Edinburgh
Saturday 26 May 2012
Today
Sunny
Temperature: 8 C to 21 C
Wind Speed: 20 mph
Wind direction: North east
Tomorrow
Sunny
Temperature: 11 C to 21 C
Wind Speed: 12 mph
Wind direction: North east

