Steve Gutterman: New START is just the beginning of disarmament

Published on Sunday 6 February 2011 15:36

IT TOOK a year of tortuous talks and painful compromise for Russia and the United States to forge their strategic nuclear arms cut treaty. But that may prove child's play compared with the next step toward nuclear disarmament.

The New START treaty, signed by presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev last April and put into force at a ceremony in Munich on Saturday, is the centrepiece of a "reset" in long-strained bilateral relations as well as a crucial springboard towards a world without nuclear weapons.

But that finish line lies beyond a minefield of obstacles, from lingering fears of nuclear domination to domestic politics and the devilish complexities of doing away with weapons that have never before been the subject of negotiations.

"Moving to the next round will not be easy at all," said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs.

New START, which lowers the ceilings on stocks of long-range weapons, came into force when Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and US secretary of state Hillary Clinton exchanged ratification documents during a security conference in Munich.

But the former Cold War foes have already signalled differences over further cuts in the world's largest nuclear arsenals. The first hurdle looms this year over an armament that is not restricted by New START: tactical nuclear weapons.

The intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that are restricted by the treaty are icons of the Cold War - the stuff of public displays of military might and private nightmares of nuclear Armageddon.

But cutting tactical nuclear weapons, with ranges up to 300 miles - a fraction of the 3,400 miles and more that strategic missiles can travel - could be a stiffer challenge for two countries that have not even revealed the number of weapons in their possession.

When the US Senate ratified New START, it ordered Mr Obama to seek negotiations on tactical nuclear weapons within a year after it enters into force.

Not so fast, says Russia, whose stockpile is several times larger than that of the US - compensation, in Moscow's view, for the relative weakness of its conventional forces.

Moscow says talks should not be held until each country confines its tactical nuclear weapons to its own territory.Translation: Russia can keep warheads on European territory - ie, its own soil - while the US must withdraw the few hundred it is estimated to maintain in allied Nato countries on the continent.

That is not necessarily a deal-killer - the US has already removed most of the more than 7,000 tactical nuclear warheads it deployed in Europe at the height of the Cold War, and some Europeans are urging a complete withdrawal.

Meanwhile, the US has something that could sweeten a deal for the Kremlin to cut tactical nuclear weapons: a couple of thousand strategic nuclear warheads that are not restricted by New START as long as they are not deployed.

Arms control experts say a solution could be an umbrella treaty that would set ceilings on all US and Russian nuclear weapons - tactical and strategic, deployed and undeployed.

"This will be a completely new kind of negotiation, if it does take place," Mr Lukyanov commented.

There is a welter of other factors that could hinder progress toward a new treaty.

One major complication comes from concerns about other nuclear-armed nations - chiefly Britain, France and China - whose smaller arsenals will become increasingly significant as Russia and the US make deeper cuts.

These smaller arsenals must be included sooner or later for a nuclear-free world, which would mark a milestone for disarmament but likely make agreements even more elusive.

In Moscow and Washington, New START may have sated appetites for cuts for some time. With elections on the horizon in both countries, political leaders will be wary about any perception they could be compromising national security - for Russia, nuclear arms are both a key source of protection and an emotive symbol of its Cold War superpower status.

One selling point for Russia on New START was a return to the prestige of arms control summitry with Washington. Another is that its arsenal is likely to be at or below the pact's limits within the seven-year deadline anyway.

But further treaties, Mr Medvedev said when he signed the law to ratify New START, are "a different story".