SNP on course to win every Scottish seat

If a post-election bill comes to fruition, any working relationship with Labour could reflect well on Sturgeon. Picture: John Devlin
If a post-election bill comes to fruition, any working relationship with Labour could reflect well on Sturgeon. Picture: John Devlin
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  • SNP on course to secure 54% of vote
  • Labour support falls to 20% of Scottish electorate
  • Ipsos Mori say large percentage of voters may still change vote
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A new poll has predicted that the SNP will win all of Scotland’s 59 seats.

The poll, carried out by Ipsos-MORI for STV, showed 54% of the Scottish electorate are set to back Nicola Sturgeon’s party in next Thursday’s General Election vote.

The rise in SNP support is a small increase of 2 points from the polling firm’s last poll in January. Support for Scottish Labour has fallen by 4 points and stands at 20% while 17% would vote for the Scottish Conservatives (up 5 points). The Scottish Liberal Democrats have seen support rise marginally to 5% (up by 1 point) while support for the Scottish Greens has fallen by 2 points to 2%.

The findings have prompted the Electoral Calculus website to predict that the SNP will win all available seats with other calculation websites giving Labour and the Lib Dems 1 seat each.

The poll, which also predicted 80 per cent of the Scottish electorate will vote,

However the study also found that a significant number of voters may consider changing their minds as polling day approaches.

22% of those who express a firm preference on our first voting question, report that they may change their minds about who to vote for before polling day, ranging from just 14% of those who intend to vote for the SNP, to 63% of those who currently back the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

Mark Diffley, Director at Ipsos MORI Scotland said: “We are now in the final week of campaigning ahead of the crucial election and the SNP is clearly consolidating its dominant position among voters in Scotland. While the numbers of seats each party will win next week remains unclear, it is likely that the SNP will make significant gains. For Labour, while support has fallen since our last poll in January, they will hope that those who remain undecided and those who are prepared to vote tactically, will back them and help to minimise the loss of seats.

“Reinforcing their position of strength, Nicola Sturgeon remains the most popular political leader in Scotland with 71% satisfied with her performance. The poll also confirms the growing popularity of Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, who attracts a satisfaction rating of 45%, far outstripping support for her party.”

Tactical voting

The poll also revealed that tactical voting in next Thursday’s election would have the greates benefit for Labout and the Liberal Democrats.

While only 14% of respondents said that Labour are their ‘preferred party’, a further 30% report that they may vote for Labour if they thought they had a chance of winning in their constituency, including 35% of Conservative supporters and 34% of Liberal Democrats. The equivalent figure for the Liberal Democrats is 25% compared to 17% for the SNP and 15% for the Conservatives.

In terms of satisfaction ratings for key leaders, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon remains Scotland’s dominant politician, enjoying a net satisfaction rating (the proportion satisfied minus the proportion dissatisfied) of +48%. Scottish Greens leader Patrick Harvie (+20%) and Scottish Conservatives leader Ruth Davidson (+7%) are the only two other leaders, from Holyrood or Westminster, to enjoy positive net satisfaction ratings.