SNP budget: 'Labour could credibly claim to have a chance'

Published on Friday 9 January 2009 08:49

Evening News Comment THERE is much speculation about what would happen if the SNP cannot win enough support to get its budget through the Scottish Parliament.

Finance Secretary John Swinney has stated plainly that if it failed the Government would have to leave office. Under the rules, if the First Minister resigns parliament has 28 days to select a replacement – but if MSPs cannot agree on a new First Minister, an election must be called.

It is against this background that Labour must decide whether or not to vote against Mr Swinney's budget.

It is not yet clear whether the SNP can secure the support of the Tories, the Greens and Margo MacDonald to ensure the budget is endorsed. But if they cannot, the question of whether to effectively bring the Government down would be a very fine call for Labour.

Last year, Alex Salmond threatened to quit if the budget was not passed and Labour's abstentions were enough to make sure the issue did not arise. Labour perhaps felt it was not in their best interests to have another election which may well have seen the SNP returned with even more seats.

But since then things have changed. The extended honeymoon which the Nationalists enjoyed is well and truly over. Four of their flagship manifesto policies – school rebuilding and the smaller class sizes, the Scottish Futures Trust and Local Income Tax – all lie in tatters and Mr Salmond's attempts to establish himself on the international stage have failed.

While Labour has benefited from the Brown bounce over the Prime Minister's handling of the credit crisis, Mr Salmond has appeared powerless to make any significant impact .

But there would be real dangers in voting down the budget. If Mr Salmond resigned, Labour would put forward Iain Gray as the new First Minister – but whether he would be endorsed by a majority of MSPs is not clear.

If Labour did form a minority government, it could find difficulty in pushing its own policies through – although it could expect to be cut a little more slack from Westminster than Mr Salmond.

And it would have to face the possibility of public disaffection over a change of government without an election. Equally, however, plunging the country into an election in a time of economic crisis is unlikely to go down well either.

But Labour might risk it if the majority of members agree that it has nothing to lose.

With the chickens beginning to come home to roost, the risk of the SNP being returned to power at Holyrood with a more clear-cut advantage seems slimmer than before and for the first time since 2007, Labour could credibly claim to have a chance of regaining power.