Sister act fails to persuade Thais to give up on Thaksin

Published on Monday 27 June 2011 16:50

Saffron-robed monks chanted and young women in silk sarongs stretched out their arms in traditional Thai dance moves, but the big event was the voice on a scratchy telephone line from another continent.

"Be prepared. Good things are about to come," billionaire former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra said from his Dubai mansion in a telephone call to a Buddhist temple where 38 communities declared their allegiance to Thaksin, formally becoming "Red Shirt Villages" in solidarity with the red-shirted movement that backs him.

The number of Red Shirt Villages has doubled to more than 700 in two north-eastern provinces in recent weeks.

Although Thaksin's younger sister and opposition leader, Yingluck Shinawatra, leads opinion polls for Thailand's 3 July election, the vote is boiling down to a referendum on her brother, a divisive figure who scored landslide election wins in 2001 and 2005, only to be ousted in a 2006 military coup.

Current prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has urged voters in Bangkok to avoid the "poison" of Thaksin, saying Yingluck and her Puea Thai Party are clear proxies for the telecoms tycoon, who lives in Dubai to evade a Thai jail sentence for conflict-of-interest charges he says were politically motivated.

Thaksin hasn't helped matters, describing his sister once as his "clone", and sending out messages via micro-blogging site Twitter on Puea Thai policy.

The traditional Bangkok elite of top generals, royal advisers and old-money families who back the ruling Democrat Party is watching closely, fearing Thaksin will exact revenge against those who toppled him if his sister gains power.

Many fear something more basic: that the election will prove meaningless and the real struggle for power will play out behind the scenes among generals and political power-brokers, or in the streets in a reprise of last year's bloody clashes between the low-income red shirts and a military intent on keeping Thaksin at bay.

Opinion polls overwhelmingly favour Yingluck, 44, a telegenic businesswoman and political novice who has confounded sceptics by running a disciplined, media savvy campaign.

Some predict Puea Thai may win an outright majority, but a hung parliament looks more likely, in which case smaller parties will be decisive, opening the way for horse-trading - and for trouble. If Yingluck wins the most votes but ultimately fails to govern, the red shirts may mobilise in new protests."I fear there will be fraud in the election," said Pathum Sinlawong, the chief monk in Suan Mon, a village surrounded by rice paddies and sugarcane fields in north-east Thailand - a rural bastion for Thaksin and the opposition.

"Some invisible elements can do things behind the scenes and rob the election."

The notion of "invisible elements", or a "third hand", has gained prominence in Thai politics since the 2006 coup and after tacit behind-the-scenes army intervention that helped bring the current government to power. To appease the military and its backers, Yingluck has struck a conciliatory tone, vowing not to rush into an amnesty for Thaksin and saying there will be no revenge for the coup. On Saturday, her party issued a statement that stressed amnesty for Thaksin was not a formal policy.

In Suan Mon and other villages in the north-east, it is clear who most voters prefer.

"Are we ready to fight?" Anond Sangnan, a red shirt leader, asked villagers packed into Suan Mon's temple. "Yes," roared the crowd. "Do we love Thaksin?" "Yes," they shouted.

"Who do we hate?" he asked.

"Abhisit," thundered the response.