Sir Menzies right to stand firm

Published on Monday 17 September 2007 01:11

WHAT are the Lib Dems for? This is the real question the party has to answer at its annual conference in Brighton. With both Gordon Brown and David Cameron struggling to capture the middle ground of British politics, the Lib Dems need to explain why anyone should still vote for them. That is a more crucial issue than worrying about Sir Menzies Campbell's age.

It is true that since Ming took over the Lib Dem leadership last year their share in the UK polls has halved. However, despite attempts by Lord Rodgers - an even older Lib Dem grandee - to blame everything on Sir Menzies' supposed "lack of energy and an absence of direction", the problem lies elsewhere.

First, Tony Blair has gone, giving Gordon Brown the chance to shed Labour of its authoritarian image and defuse the Iraq problem. Second, despite unrest in his own ranks, David Cameron is still encroaching on Lib Dem territory; witness his embracing green taxes last week - a policy the Lib Dems thought they had to themselves. The Lib Dems would find themselves squeezed no matter who they had as leader.

Caught in this pincer movement, Sir Menzies seems determined to hold his ground. So the twin messages to be repeated daily at Brighton will be 'tax the rich, not the poor' and 'the Tories aren't really green'. Attacking fat cats is one thing, but the voters remain sceptical that any environmental taxes, no matter how worthy, will end up being shouldered by the not-so-rich.

In addition, Sir Menzies is now pushing a referendum on EU membership. He doesn't really expect to get one, but this tactic neatly avoids the need to back the Tory demand for a referendum on the new EU constitutional treaty. A public vote on the latter would probably end in a "no", which the pro-European Sir Menzies does not relish. Say what you like about Sir Menzies, he is not as naive politically as his critics pretend. That could be his secret strength.

However, the Lib Dem activists are less depressed than one might imagine. Gordon Brown's "big tent" approach to politics - embracing everyone from Mrs Thatcher to David Owen - has convinced many of them that Labour would accept a coalition with the Lib Dems if the next Westminster election ended in a hung parliament. This is not necessarily a far fetched scenario. But in the only circumstance in which it is likely to happen - massive but inconclusive Tory gains in England - would the country really accept being run by two politicians from Fife?

The virtue of Sir Menzies' leadership is that he knows there are no get-rich-quick schemes for the Lib Dems. The middle ground might be tough, but it is where the votes are.