Scotland needs influx of migrant workers

Published on 23/02/2004 00:00

SCOTLAND needs to attract more than 635,000 migrant workers over the next 20 years if the age balance of the population is to be preserved at current levels.

The Office of National Statistics will next month show that Scotland’s slow population decline is masking a sharp drop in children and workers and a 16 per cent jump in pensioners.

This could have the economic impact of losing a city the size of Edinburgh - unless Jack McConnell, the First Minister, can strike a deal with London ministers to attract a greater share of migrants seeking to work in the UK.

The ONS figures will show Scotland’s young-for-old population swap, which has so far been disguised by modest projections of a 3 per cent population decline until 2023.

The number of children is expected to plunge by 18 per cent as Scottish birth rates hit historic lows. Without new migrant families, officials have already planned to cut the number of teachers in Scotland by at least 600 a year from 2007 onwards.

The expected loss of 136,000 working-age Scots will be offset by a projected 151,000 new pensioners over the 20-year period. To preserve the support ratio for the elderly - currently 3.3 people of working age for every pensioner - Scotland would have to absorb thousands of migrant workers starting at 23,000 this year. By 2023, an extra 635,000 would be required.

Mr McConnell is this week expected to claim an initial success in winning powers to lure UK migrants to Scotland, secured after weeks of talks with the UK Home Office.

The First Minister has been urging Mr Blunkett to consider Scotland’s economic need for migrants from Eastern Europe.

However, there is no legal instrument which would allow them to work in Scotland while prohibiting them from working elsewhere in the UK.