One in five chooses home over air travel as ash fears linger

Published on Tuesday 8 June 2010 22:44

NEARLY three million Britons have decided not to fly because of the threat of more volcanic ash disruption which caused chaos in April, according to market analysts.

Mintel said the move could lead to the cutting of air fares, as well as providing a boost to UK tourism. It reported that 2.8 million people had abandoned air travel plans, and the Icelandic ash cloud could put off as many as one in five from taking off.

Tom Rees, Mintel's senior travel analyst, said: "Last year saw more consumers decide to holiday at home than go overseas as the economic climate influenced consumer spending.

"In a normal year, we could perhaps predict the balance would shift back to foreign holidays as the country emerges from recession, consumer confidence picks up and pent-up demand for overseas – and far-flung – travel is released. However, 2010 is turning into anything but a normal year for travel.

"The Eyjafjallajkull volcano is continuing to cause disruption, and air strikes are also playing a part in denting consumer confidence. The full effect of the volcano – and the possibility that its sister Katla will also erupt – is extremely hard to predict, but these results highlight that domestic tourism is likely to benefit as a result."

Mr Rees said for those still planning to take to the skies, tour operators may see a boost as 7 per cent of consumers – 2.8 million – say they will be booking a package holiday to ensure they are looked after in the event of disruption.

He added that those still flying could benefit from lower fares for a time: "Possibly short-term, especially if we get another wave of disruption. But airlines are going to try and recoup the losses, and oil prices are a concern, so I don't see this signalling any permanent drop."

British Airways – which has also lost passengers from a series of cabin crew strikes – will slash its Club World business class fares by up to 900 and selected first class fares by more than 1,500 from tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the Mintel survey found 4 per cent of consumers would still travel overseas, but planned to use alternative transport. A further 3 per cent said the impact of the volcanic ash cloud has discouraged them from using low cost airlines.

Ferry firms reported increased traffic. Stena Line said it expected to carry an extra 20,000 passengers between Stranraer and Belfast this summer – up 15 per cent on last year. Marketing manager Ian Baillie said: "We have been one of the few benefactors from the chaos caused by the ash cloud disruptions. People have travelled with us who would not have done so or have not done so for many years."

The Mintel findings, based on a survey of 2,000 people, were disputed by travel experts. Richard Havers, a Borders-based former senior airline executive, said: "Some people will have decided not to fly, but I would be very surprised if it is so many.

"The price of holidaying in the UK is much higher than abroad when you take into account the foreign bonus of sun, sea and surf, which a lot of people want. It's also unlikely the ash cloud will blow this way again, and people will soon forget about it, just as they did with swine flu."

Brian Potter, president of the Scottish Passenger Agents Association, which represents travel agents, said: "Tour operators are relatively happy with bookings and margins right now."

Aviation analyst John Strickland, of JLS Consulting, said: "I am optimistic that if the volcano remains tranquil, travel will pick up. No doubt those airlines able to jump-start demand with low fare offers will be the main beneficiaries."