Scottish Election 2011: Labour slashes SNP election lead

Published on Saturday 30 April 2011 19:52

LABOUR has slashed the SNP's lead ahead of Thursday's Scottish Parliament elections as the party fights to deprive Alex Salmond of a return to government, a new Scotland on Sunday poll reveals today.

Iain Gray's party has made up some of the ground it lost to the SNP since the start of the election campaign, with just a handful of seats now separating the two main contenders, the poll shows.

SNP leader Alex Salmond remains on course to beat his main opponent with an increased share of MSPs at Holyrood, a result which would give him the option of trying to run another minority SNP administration, with a pledge to hold a referendum on independence within the five-year term.

The tightening in the polls over the last few days is certain to boost hopes within Labour circles that they may still have an chance at hauling in the SNP if they can maintain the movement.

Last night, Labour party chiefs claimed the poll showed it was "game on" and said they planned to swamp Scotland with 10,000 activists on Thursday.

The SNP campaign, is promising the biggest-ever campaigning blitz mounted by a political party in Scotland, designed to ensure that every single household in Scotland is contacted. Their campaign is also boosted today by an endorsement from Sir Tom Farmer, a multi-millionaire entrepreneur and the founder of the Kwik Fit chain.

Today's poll, which also shows a marked increase in opposition to independence, represents the first good news in the polls for Labour since the end of March and comes after Labour relaunched their campaign last week with a renewed attack on the SNP's plans for secession. Gray has claimed that the SNP's proposed referendum would distract attention away from efforts to secure jobs.

Compared to the same YouGov poll last weekend, the SNP has fallen by three points to 42 per cent in the constituency vote, and by four points to 35 per cent in the list vote. Labour, by contrast, has risen by two points to 34 per cent in the constituency vote and by four points to 33 per cent in the list vote.

However, those losses merely take the edge off the gains made by the SNP – and the steep losses made by Labour – since the start of the campaign in March. Compared to the YouGov poll then, the SNP is still up by 3 per cent, while Labour is down by 5 per cent on the constituency vote and 6 per cent on the list vote.

An analysis by Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, estimates that if such a result were replicated on Thursday, it would still hand the SNP a record victory. Salmond's party would win 55 seats, up seven, while Labour would win 48 seats, up two.

The analysis gives the Conservatives 12 seats, the Greens eight and the LibDems just five. Such a result would hand the Tories the balance of power although Salmond has already ruled out a coalition.

The poll findings are certain to prompt a stepping up of Labour's attack on independence this week, especially as the poll suggests the tactic is hitting home and is translating into a drop in SNP support.

YouGov shows that opposition to independence has gone up from 52 per cent to 57 per cent in the last week. Furthermore, more people oppose holding a referendum on independence now than support it: 45 per cent to 43 per cent. YouGov president Peter Kellner claimed: "If the election was essentially a verdict on four years of SNP rule, and a choice between Salmond and Gray, then the SNP would win comfortably. But if Labour can turn it into a vote that determines whether Scotland starts down the road to independence, Labour could yet snatch victory from the jaws of defeat."

However, other pollsters noted that support for independence had dropped in 2007 as well but did not prevent the SNP from winning then. Salmond argues that his referendum policy means that the issue of independence is not one for this election campaign.

Campaign managers said yesterday with just four days to go, all the parties would be picking up the pace in a final week likely to be dominated by two TV debates, one this evening on BBC, and one on Tuesday, to be staged by STV.

Scottish Labour's election coordinator, John Park, said last night: "This poll shows it is game on for Labour and exposes how desperately unpopular SNP's flagship policy of independence is. With every day that goes by Labour is fighting back and momentum is returning to Labour as voters realise just how dangerous the SNP's grand plan to rip Scotland out of the United Kingdom is."

Deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon said: "This is an excellent poll as we enter the final days of the campaign. It will motivate every supporter to vote SNP in both the constituency and list votes on Thursday to ensure Scotland re-elects the Scottish Government and Alex Salmond for First Minister."

David McLetchie, campaign chief for the Scottish Conservatives, said: "Scotland needs someone to stand against the excesses of nationalism and socialism and this poll shows once again that we will be pivotal in the next parliament.

"Annabel and the Scottish Conservatives are the real check on Alex Salmond. We will focus on tackling the real problems."

Green leader Patrick Harvie said: "If the Lib Dems can be squeezed into fifth place it could even be a fatal blow to this unwanted and unpopular Westminster coalition."