Scotland faces cash crisis with explosion of over-60s

Published on Friday 5 August 2011 18:49

ECONOMISTS have warned that unprecedented strain will be put on health and social care budgets, after a report forecast the number of pensioners in Scotland would soar to record levels over the next two decades.

Scotland's dramatically ageing population and the growing number of single-person households will pile pressure on to care services already struggling with dwindling budgets as a result of the financial crisis.

The extent of the demographic time bomb about to explode in Scotland was revealed in statistics from the Register General, which showed the number of people aged 60 and over will increase by 50 per cent from 1.17 million to 1.75m by 2033.

Over the same period, Scotland's population is set to soar to 5.54m from its current level of 5,222,100, which is already the highest recorded since 1974.

Improved medical care has contributed to Scottish life expectancy improving dramatically over the past three decades, with an average man born in 2009 now expected to live for 75.8 years, compared with 69.1 for a man born in 1981. Women born in 2009 can expect to live to 80.3, compared with 75.3 in 1981.

But when compared with the rest of Europe, Scottish life expectancy is still below the average. Life expectancy at birth for Scottish men is one year less than the European average - and for women, it is almost two years lower.

The fact that people are living longer cast more doubt on the sustainability of the Scottish Government's policy of providing free personal care for the elderly, a measure that now costs 370 million - a sum that is expected to rise dramatically in the coming years.

More strain on care budgets will come from the increasing number of people growing old alone.

• Leader: With old age must come wisdom

According to the General Register Office for Scotland's Annual Review of Demographic Trends, there were 2.36m households in Scotland in 2010 - about 315,000 more than in 1991. By 2033, it is projected the number of households will increase to 2.8m, which translates to an average of 19,300 extra households each year.

Analysis showed most of that expected increase is the result of an ageing population and more people living alone or in smaller households. The increase in the population was not a major factor.

David Bell, professor of economics at Stirling University, said the ageing population meant that the way the Scottish Government, the NHS and local authorities planned to look after older people would have to be examined closely.

"This will put unprecedented strain on budgets, and the strain is increased by the growing number of single households," he said.

"All of the programmes relating to elderly people will have to be revised. Ultimately, we have to look at the affordability of pensions, health care and social care. We need a comprehensive look at how we are going to deal with all these things.""In England, they are doing the Dilnot review into this subject, but it remains to be seen whether Scotland can come up with its own solution. But we must have as much preventative measures in place as possible to make sure our elderly population is healthy and fit."

Professor Bob Elliott, director of the Health Economics Research Unit at Aberdeen University, said: "This must be an unprecedented number of elderly that presents a substantial challenge in terms of thinking about the health service, reconfiguring that service and the workforce that delivers it."

The recently published Christie Commission, which was ordered by the Scottish Government to look at reform of public services, called for a tougher auditing of public spending and more community involvement.

The SNP government has promised NHS spending will be protected. But pressure on council budgets, combined with the soaring population, has led to suggestions from the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities (Cosla) that it is inevitable free personal care will have to be revisited.

Cosla president Pat Watters said: "How do we deal with the increasing demand on services and decreasing finance? Obviously, we need to look at how we are doing things. When you are looking at an increasing elderly population, the cost of free personal care is increasing on an annual basis."

Although all the main Scottish political parties remain committed to free personal care, there are concerns about the effect the ageing population will have on our ability to look after the elderly.

Jackie Baillie, Labour's health spokeswoman, said: "Scotland's ageing and growing population places ever greater stress on our NHS. By cutting over 700 nurses in the last six months alone, the SNP are making a tough job even tougher. And there are even more front-line jobs to go this year.

"It is important that the SNP properly fund the NHS, so it is able to cope with the growing demands that it faces."

Scottish Conservative deputy leader Murdo Fraser said social care and health budgets ought to be dealt with together.

He said: "Recent figures have continually pointed towards an increased and older population in years to come. We need to think ahead and take action to ensure our public services can deal with these changes."

Migration played a prominent role in the population increase in Scotland as a whole.A net figure of 24,968 more people coming to Scotland than leaving made a major contribution to the growth in population of 28,100 recorded in the 12 months from 1 July, 2009, to 30 June, 2010, an increase of 0.5 per cent.

In addition, there were 5,188 more births than deaths, an increase that took the Scottish population up to 5,222,100 - only 18,700 shy of the 5,240,800 figure achieved in 1974.

Retiring Registrar General Duncan Macniven said in recent years, migration had managed to reverse the population decline, which Scotland had seen since 1974.

He added: "Around half of those moving to Scotland came from within the UK. Of the other 50 per cent, who came from Europe and further afield, approximately one quarter were British citizens returning home."

A Scottish Government spokesman said: "We are fully committed to the funding of free personal care for the elderly, a service greatly valued by the people of Scotland."